preface:
In the past two days, news about the Russo-Ukrainian war has flooded the Internet. Behind all sorts of information, there is a very interesting reality, that is, the countries of the European Union seem to be more surprised than we are about the war between Russia and Ukraine.
More precisely, it seems that they are completely unable to accept that Russia's use of force against Ukraine will actually happen. Germany is the most prominent of these.
The EU has stepped up sanctions against Russia
To tell the truth, after the Second World War, the world has been in a relatively peaceful state for 70 years. But war is not far from humanity. In particular, the European Union has participated in wars with the United States over the years, in the Middle East, and Africa, and even the Kosovo War 20 years ago broke out on European soil.
It stands to reason that Europeans would do something about Russia, and it should be a little more accepting than we are. Why are Europeans now so incomprehensible about Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
First, the mentality of the rich: why should we use force when we know what can be resolved through negotiation
Europeans cannot understand why Russia should use force against Ukraine, the reasons are very complicated, but in summary, the core is one: why should russia be used for things that can be resolved through negotiations?
So the crux of the matter is, can the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine really be resolved through negotiations?
From the EU's point of view, it is indeed possible. Strategy is one word: grinding.
If a negotiation does not achieve twice, twice does not achieve three times, and three times does not succeed, then continue to combine vertical and horizontal, bright chips, than patience, and start over.
If not, simply refer to the Cold War, the two sides each take out weapons in front of each other's eyes, although not directly to war, it also has the same effect as war.
Putin in his youth
The game between countries is ultimately compared to comprehensive national strength, as long as it can surpass the other side in comprehensive national strength and let the other party accept this fact, then the negotiation will naturally succeed.
War is a continuation of politics, and from a political point of view, the ultimate purpose of fighting a war is to make the enemy accept that he is weak and must listen to the speech of a powerful country in the future.
Therefore, Europeans generally believe that even if the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine and NATO are very deep, as long as they grind more times and drag on for a long time, they can always reach a compromise that is acceptable to both sides.
Conversely, why doesn't President Putin think so?
In fact, the reason is very simple, one sentence is enough to show: Russia can not consume.
According to the current degree of contradiction between Russia and NATO, even if the two sides negotiate, it is impossible to make any progress in the short term, and the previous negotiations between Russia and the United States, including Russia and NATO, and the EU, are examples.
According to the thinking of European countries, this time the talks cannot be concluded, then next time, next time, one day, the problem can be negotiated. But in fact, this way of solving problems is to let time solve problems, not people to solve problems.
However, for Russia, in the current situation, if the contradiction between Russia and NATO is resolved by delaying time, it is equivalent to making Russia wait for death.
Russia holds an economic conference
Because the development of the strength of the two sides is unbalanced. Russia is not an economic rival of the European Union and the United States at all, and if it is really dragged down one negotiation after another, one after another, Russia will be consumed by life, and Putin certainly cannot agree.
For example, it's like a billionaire fighting a poor man for land. The rich man said, who is right and who is wrong, let's sit together and debate, who wins the turf will belong.
At this time, the problem facing the poor is that you don't argue with the rich and you don't get the turf. You go and argue with the rich, and the public says that the public is justified, the mother-in-law says that the mother-in-law is advantageous, and you can't tell the difference between right and wrong, win or lose, or you can't get the land.
For the rich, not being able to get this land has little impact, he should still eat, drink, and live a normal life every day. But for the poor, if they don't get the land this year and plant crops, next year the family will starve to death.
So what about the poor? He can only fight with the rich man, so that he will never dare to come to himself in the future, only in this way can he get the land and plant crops with peace of mind.
The European Union is the rich man who eats and drinks, while Russia is the poor man who waits for the land to grow food. The core reason why European countries cannot understand Russia and why they have to use force to solve the problems that can be resolved through negotiations is that they cannot understand Russia's current predicament.
Minister for Foreign Affairs of Germany
In the words of the famous emperor of our ancient China, it is: the common people have no vegetable leaves to eat, why not drink broth?
In the words of the modern literary hero Lu Xun, it is the sorrow and joy of mankind that are not connected.
Is Ukraine really that important to Russia?
So specific to the Russo-Ukrainian War, is Ukraine really that important to Russia? Is it important enough to wage war for this, or even to trigger a world war?
The answer is yes, but half of the reasons for this are because of the United States and NATO, and the other half because of Russia itself.
For Russia, Ukraine's own size, economy, and even its own domestic, pro-European and American, rejectionist tendencies of Western Ukrainian culture are not enough to pose a threat to Russia.
Otherwise, in the 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia will not watch Ukraine sway from side to side, and did not do so until recent years.
But if you add a NATO, the situation is completely different. The simplest, taking Russia's recent security concerns as an example, once Ukraine joins NATO and the United States deploys missile positions in Ukraine, then Russia will face the threat that the United States faced in 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The United States increased its forces to Eastern Europe
Because Cuba and the United States are too close, so close that once the Soviet Union deploys a nuclear bomb in Cuba, it is equivalent to being pinched into a dead hole, no matter how powerful your anti-missile system is, there is no reaction time at all, and when you just find the enemy missile on the radar, the interception order has not yet been issued, the missile has flown to Moscow, how can Russia get along with the United States and NATO on an equal footing?
More importantly, the threat posed to the United States by the Cuban Missile Crisis was short-lived. But nato's eastward expansion into Ukraine poses a long-term threat to Russia.
At that point, things will be resolved through negotiations, as the European countries thought. But this is not so much a "negotiation" as a kidnapping.
In addition, if we stand in Russia's own perspective, when the United States and the European Union push the border of NATO to the side of Russia, it means that the gap between Russia and the Western "democratic freedom" has been opened again.
Since the 90s of the last century, Russia has been learning from the West, imitating the West. But under Yeltsin's nearly 10 years of rule, and Putin's previous years of rule, the Russians finally understood a truth.
He who learns from me is born, and he who is like me dies.
The Western cultural system and economic system naturally have their own excellent places, otherwise it would not have risen rapidly in modern times and become the center of the world's political, economic and cultural culture.
But over the years, as the capitalist system has matured, its drawbacks have begun to appear. More importantly, what is suitable for others is not necessarily suitable for oneself.
Russian opposition figures
Especially for a big country like Russia, if it cannot be combined with its own history and culture when absorbing other people's cultural systems, then it is impossible to avoid the end of "those who learn from me live, like me die".
This point in Russia after the "shock therapy" of the 90s, is a close experience.
Therefore, over the years, although Russia has been learning from the West, it has gradually returned to its senses, wanting to isolate the Western cultural system and combine Russia's own reality to create a system suitable for Russia and at the same time absorb advanced Ideas from the West.
Now is the critical period for the formation of Russia's own system, if NATO is allowed to expand eastward to Ukraine, and the chaotic ideas and cultures of the West enter Russia in large numbers, then Russia's road of self-reform will be completely interrupted. It can only become a country like the modern United States.
What is more unfortunate is that the United States still has the world's largest economic volume to support, and the chaos in the system will not immediately disintegrate. Russia's domestic economic difficulties, various ethnic contradictions, and separatist forces are not many at all. It really makes the so-called "Western democracy" completely erode Russia.
Then Russia will immediately and inevitably move towards division and disintegration.
From this perspective, Russia also cannot allow NATO to expand eastward into Ukraine.
Third, the differences in history and culture are deeply rooted
But it is clear that the peoples of Europe are doomed not to understand, and cannot understand this. Because the kind of "negotiated" way of solving the problem that they pursue is not to fool people, but to really approve of themselves.
Now in Europe and the United States, the bloated, low-energy, and slow efficiency in the administrative system is an excellent embodiment of this kind of encounter, which is "negotiated" to solve, and once does not achieve twice, twice does not achieve three times.
Geographically, Europe is a state of fragmentation, each country is not too big, a bit of "small countries and widows" meaning. Governing such a country, the administrative system is a little inefficient, a little bloated, and can be maintained.
Secretary-General of NATO
After all, there are 300 people in a village, and even if you are incompetent and inefficient, things can often be solved in the end. But a big country like Russia, the United States, millions of square kilometers of land, people living in Moscow, and people living in Siberia, want to quarrel over one thing, if it is placed in ancient times, two years to say a word, how to "democratic negotiations"?
But on the other hand, Europeans have lived in this way, governed the country for thousands of years, and have long formed a cultural habit of their own, social psychology, especially in modern times, under the manipulation of capital, more and more groups of dissidents, and the increasing division of society, it is unrealistic to let them understand Russia's concerns about its country and nation.
It is easy to change a country's economy, but it is more difficult to change a country's system. But this is not the most difficult thing, the most difficult thing in the world, is to change the cultural concepts that a nation and a country have formed for thousands of years.
It is impossible for a small individual to fully understand another individual, let alone have millions of completely different individuals, composed of two peoples?
Therefore, European countries cannot understand why Russia should use force against Ukraine, which is essentially caused by differences in history, culture, and behavior.