The war entered the fifth day, the Battle of Kiev has not ended, the current war basically stops in the east and center of Ukraine, Russia yesterday said that it is willing to negotiate with Ukraine, while the United States and Europe have increased military support for Ukraine. In this case, international and domestic doubts began to doubt whether Russia could win the war quickly, whether it would once again fall into the pit dug by the United States and NATO, and fall into a protracted war, and even the domestic media likened it to the five-year war of the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan, burying the Soviet Union.
The remarks that seem to be spread in the domestic media feel a little pessimistic, but the author believes that it is still early, and there is no need to be so pessimistic, the US Gulf War took much longer, and we must also believe in president Putin's ability and will.
What was It like for President Putin to take over Russia in 2000? It was much more miserable than now, poor and weak, the people's livelihood was withering, and it was on the verge of splitting, when NATO was advancing at a high level, bombing the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which was also a Slav, humiliating Russia, Chechnya engaged in independence, frequently creating terrorist attacks, the two Chechen wars caused Russia to suffer heavy losses, the oligarchs annexed state-owned assets, and controlled national politics. In such a situation, Russia and President Putin have no fear, opened widely, and dared to reform, which not only saved Russia, but also let Russia out of the predicament. Russia may be difficult today, but it is many times better than it was in 2000, at least it is more stable at home, Putin firmly controls the Russian regime, the economy and politics have been reshaped, and various reforms have made positive progress.
First, it is very important to understand the purpose of Russia's war, otherwise it will be misjudged
Putin said that Russia did not go to war to occupy Ukraine, but to de-militarize, to Nazismize, to remove Western proxies, to make Ukraine permanently neutral, these four points are his real concerns.
I believe Putin's words, why?
First, if You want to completely occupy Ukraine, Russia cannot send only 100,000 people, Ukraine's land area has reached 600,000 square kilometers, the number of armed forces has reached 360,000 people, the people are fierce, good at fighting, to completely occupy such a country, 100,000 people is far from enough, because every place you occupy needs to be garrisoned.
Second, in the first five days of fighting, the Russian army still maintained restraint in attacking, and there was no large-scale dispatch of heavy weapons, such as large rockets, heavy bombers, etc., civilian facilities such as hydropower stations, power plants were not bombed, and even the eastern region could use the network. This is done in order to win the hearts and minds of the people and avoid large-scale civilian casualties, and second, to avoid condemnation by international public opinion. From a military point of view, Putin did delay the steps of the offensive and affect the progress of victory, but in the long run, it is worth it, so the slower pace of advance in these days has nothing to do with Russia's combat effectiveness and whether Russia can achieve final victory.
Third, Russia's aim is to remove Ukraine's military power, so the aim is not to occupy, but to destroy effective military targets. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a message on the 28th that since the start of the operation, the Russian army has paralyzed 1114 Ukrainian military infrastructure, including 31 command posts and communication centers; destroyed 314 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, and 57 rocket launchers. In one day, the Russians destroyed 8 beech М-1 anti-aircraft missiles, 3 radio stations, 4 fighters stuck on the ground, and shot down one fighter in the air.
Fourth, in the preparatory stage of the war, Russia must have rehearsed various possibilities, including a protracted war in Ukraine. The war is first and foremost to ensure the disarmament, independence and autonomy of the pro-Russian region of Eastern Ukraine. Usi is strong by some anti-Russian forces in Europe, and Europe and NATO through the Ushi border of Poland and the Baltic Sea three countries continue to provide military support, to achieve victory is much more difficult, so the war is currently mainly concentrated in Wudong and central Kiev and the southern Black Sea ports and other places, the attack on the Ussi region is very little reported, there is another important factor is that the Ussi region is the world's main wheat and barley export area, attacking the Ussi region may trigger a global food panic, causing world chaos.
Even if the war in Ukraine does not advance as expected, Russia will not fall.
Russia has been preparing for this battle for many years, especially after Russia annexed Crimea, the West imposed large-scale sanctions and isolation on Russia, and since then, Russia has completely woken up to the fact that no matter how obedient and compromise Russia is, the United States and the West will not let Russia go, and the West is to dismember Russia, so that Russia can never rise again. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "Whatever happens to Russia, the United States and the West will impose sanctions on Russia simply because Russia is an independent power."
To this end, Russia has carried out 8 years of all-round preparations, and has laid out layouts in the fields of political, military, economic, energy, foreign trade, etc. At present, Russia's food and energy are its own strengths, it is completely self-sufficient, the land is vast, the products are abundant, and the short-term war cannot drag Down Russia.
Of course, after a long war, Russia may be more passive, especially in terms of economic and international public opinion, and the morale of front-line soldiers will also be affected to a certain extent.
But no matter what, Russia will not collapse, Putin will not collapse, he has nuclear weapons, no one dares to fight him directly, Russia itself will not be damaged, this will not hurt the fundamentals. Even if the economy and military are damaged, it is worth the loss to keep NATO out of the border between Ukraine and Russia. In fact, this battle is inevitable, it is only a matter of fighting early and fighting late, and fighting big and fighting small.
Follow-up by the United States and NATO
No matter what step Russia's military operations are carried out, NATO and the United States do not dare to directly enter the territory of Ukraine to participate in the war, which will inevitably lead to nuclear war, and Russia's conventional military strength and military strength cannot be compared with NATO at all, and Russia can only be forced to carry out a nuclear counterattack.
On Sunday (February 27), local time, after NATO issued an aggressive statement against Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the strategic deterrent of the Russian army to move into a special state of combat readiness. This is a major warning sign.
Therefore, the next move of the United States and NATO is to continue to increase sanctions, especially to destroy Russia's financial and foreign exchange markets, expel diplomats, and close each other's airspace. Continue to pay for weapons, let Russia fight with Ukraine, cripple Ukraine, drag Russia down, lose both, use Ukraine to drag down Russia, weaken Russia, and then use economic sanctions to stimulate internal contradictions in Russia, launch a color revolution in Russia, support pro-AMERICAN opposition parties, and force Putin and his staff to step down.
Fourth, the impact on China
Many have linked the battle to China, and many malicious foreign media have linked Russia's military campaign to China's tacit support. Such a statement is both far-fetched and untrue.
Indeed, Russia's stakes are high, not only on Russia's national fortunes but also on the fate of Putin and his aides, and the West has now sanctioned Putin himself and his team. However, it is still an exaggeration to say that this battle is a big chess game related to China's world, or even a great cause that will affect our reunification.
Many people think that if Russia and Putin lose this time, we will lose one of our biggest foreign aid, one of the strongest allies to resist US hegemony. The author partially agrees with this view. For China, taking a 10,000 step back means that even if Russia loses, its impact will be limited. In the 1960s, when China was fighting against the two major military blocs of the United States and the Soviet Union at the same time, and after three years of natural disasters, and india had just finished fighting, we could still achieve development and independence.
China's strength and rise mainly rely on internal factors, China's great cause of reunification must rely on its own strength and military strength, what external countries can give us is political support and public opinion support, substantive help will not be too much, just like for the current Russia, no matter how good the relationship, we can not send troops to war, at most only moral and political support, we and Russia are not allies.
Of course, we can coordinate and help from the side, such as monitoring the movements of Japan and the United States in the direction of the Diaoyu Islands and the East China Sea, and by patrolling the Diaoyu Islands, curbing Japan's military impulses to seize Russia's South Kuril Islands; or holding military exercises to distract the military attention of the United States; increasing the purchase volume of Russian products, especially energy products, increasing the advance payment for imported goods, and supporting Russia economically; and increasing exports of industrial products that Russia urgently needs due to sanctions Trade between the two sides can be settled in renminbi or rubles through the CIPS system, bypassing the US-controlled SWIFT system, which is a strong support.
Therefore, the short-term offensive is slow, neither need to worry too much, nor do we need to lose confidence, we must maintain strategic determination and patience, wait and see the changes, make good use of the strategic opportunity period, and develop ourselves rapidly is the most important.
Because of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the series of sanctions that Russia has encountered have given us China a big wake-up call, these measures may fall on our heads, how to deal with it at that time, this is really a big problem, to know that our ties with the world and the West are much more complex than Russia.