The war continues in Ukraine, the situation is changing beyond expectations every day, the war has been tragically continued beyond the original script, where will it eventually go? It is still an unknown question mark.
Why is this war divorced from the original script? Perhaps, no one expected that this war would take place in Ukraine more than expected, or that no one would expect that this war would break out in Ukraine. Although this war exceeded the world's expectations from the beginning, the actions of all parties in the past few days were still in a relatively controllable situation, and even at one point Zelenskiy took the initiative to ask Russia for peace, and Russia also responded to peace talks, and this war could have been finally resolved through Russian-Ukrainian peace talks.
When the war was just burning, Russia's progress was very fast, announcing that the Ukrainian navy and air force were completely destroyed, and the Russian troops who attacked from all sides were progressing smoothly, so there was news that "the Russian army may end the war within 48 hours". The Ukrainian president has called for help and staged many tragedies, and on the whole, Ukraine has no resistance to the Russian offensive. As for the third party in the struggle outside Russia and Ukraine, the Western world led by the United States expressed its verbal support for Ukraine on the one hand, and on the other hand, it clearly stated that it would not send troops to Ukraine.
Combining the situation of the three parties, a compromise through peace talks to end the war appeared, but ukraine's attitude quickly poured a basin of cold water on everyone, Ukraine only principles did not compromise, the process of peace talks was basically buried because of differences in the choice of location, Russia resumed military operations, and the two sides have now engaged in fierce fighting in Kiev.
Two days after the war began, the United States and Europe, which Zelenskiy described as completely abandoning Ukraine, finally sacrificed the ultimate killer of sanctions against Russia - the leaders of the United States, the European Union, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Canada and other countries decided to kick Russia out of the SWIFT international settlement system known as the "financial nuclear bomb". It remains to be seen how much of an impact this ultimate sanctions will have on Russia, but the implications of this decision on both sides are already showing signs.
In addition to the ultimate financial killer, the US military force has also begun to appear in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in the recent naval battle between Russia and Ukraine, the US military drone appeared over the war zone, Russia accused the US military drone for the Ukrainian Navy to launch an attack on Russia to provide intelligence support, by the United States denied. The truth is clear, but the implications are clear.
There is also news that Ukrainian President Zelenskiy announced yesterday the establishment of a new force composed of expatriates, the "International Combat Force for the Defense of the Territory of Ukraine", which is more or less intriguing behind the establishment, after all, it will provide cover for the activities of other countries' armies in Ukraine, which is not good news.
In addition, the measures against Russia include Austria, Denmark, Iceland, Belgium and Sweden that have announced the closure of airspace for Russian flights. Russia, in contrast, began to evacuate its citizens from European countries. Ukraine has also filed proceedings against Russia, inter alia, before the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
Yesterday Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the Russian Defense Minister and the Chief of the General Staff and ordered Russia's strategic deterrent forces to enter a special state of combat readiness. The reason given is that Western economic sanctions against Russia and the statements made by certain Western leaders have become increasingly aggressive.
A strategic deterrent, a nuclear deterrent. Earlier this month, Russia conducted a strategic deterrent exercise, and coincidentally on the same day, U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed that the United States would not send troops to Ukraine to fight. At this moment, the signal released by Russia playing this hole card is obvious, that is, to use nuclear forces to deter Western countries and force the West to restrain on the Ukraine issue.
We summarize the current situation in Ukraine: Ukraine only has principles without compromise, Zelenskiy's attitude is getting tougher and tougher; western countries have imposed unprecedented intensity on Russia, forming a group beating posture against Russia, and making small military moves; Russia has not made a quick decision, achieved the established strategic goal, and finally sacrificed the nuclear stick under the situation of mass beating.
From this, we can conclude that the speculative psychology of Western countries in the situation in Ukraine is obviously present, and both Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a strategic gamble, and victory or defeat is still unknown.
We look back at the origins of the Ukraine crisis, ukraine wants to join the European Union is a trigger, from 2014 to the present, in the past seven or eight years, the EU and NATO have not finally accepted Ukraine, putting Ukraine in today's precarious situation. Against the backdrop of repeated Western statements that it would not send troops to Fight in Ukraine, European Commission President von der Leyen said in a weekend interview that he supported joining ukraine's European Union. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy spoke with von der Leyen in the early hours of the morning about joining the European Union.
In the past, it was impossible to ask for it, and now it is sent to the door, and this move of the European Union has caused the world to be in an uproar. Is the EU's move a bottom-up move to save Ukraine, or is it a fire that further inflames the situation in Ukraine?
What we can now be sure of is that the attitude of Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has changed from "pessimism" at the beginning of the war to his current "burst of self-confidence", which is inseparable from the role played by the West in this crisis, and more bluntly, without the comprehensive sanctions and support of the West, Zelenskiy simply could not have changed from the sad statement that "the West has completely abandoned Ukraine" to a tough toughness with only the bottom line and no compromise.
The Western countries also do not want to see Ukraine compromise, they need Ukraine to be more like a warrior, to support and persevere in the Russo-Ukrainian War, because once Ukraine compromises, the flames of war are extinguished, but the western seven or eight years in Ukraine a series of planning and layout results will be in vain. In other words, in this contest, the Western world would rather crush the pot than destroy it, and Russia cannot win anyway.
The West also clearly sees one of Russia's weaknesses in this contest, that is, the longer this war drags on, the more unfavorable it is for Russia, and for Russia, a quick decision to force Ukraine to compromise is the best plan, and it is also a plan to maximize Russia's interests. Once the offensive is blocked, under the siege of the Western countries, Russia will be in a difficult situation in the War situation in Ukraine, which is exactly what the West wants to see.
Based on our judgment of the overall trend of the interests of Western countries, the EU's acceptance of Ukraine's accession to the EU at this time is nothing more than two considerations: first, it will take a lot of time to join the EU after Russia joins the EU, which will pose direct pressure on Russia, and at the same time, it can also unite Ukraine's war spirit; second, take Ukraine's accession to the EU as a chip to release a strong signal of support to Ukraine, so that Ukraine can persist in this war, after all, it will take a lot of time to join the EU after a series of procedures.
These two considerations, on the whole, are in line with the interests of Western countries, or more precisely, more in line with the interests of the United States. Therefore, we have also labeled the EU's move as a "fire", because Russia has once again sacrificed the nuclear stick in the face of the siege of Western countries, and the special state of combat readiness is a clear signal, no matter what the Western countries think, Russia is now scared to the West to death.
The final outcome is not in the hands of the European Union, nor in the hands of either Side of Russia and Ukraine, but in the evolution of the War situation between Russia and Ukraine. Whether Ukraine can hold on and whether Russia can conquer it is the decisive factor that determines the final outcome, and who can finally counterattack and become the final winner, who wins the military initiative, who is the final winner.
Next, we have a window of observation, that is, the final battle of Russia-Ukraine Kiev who can win Kiev, will directly affect the future outcome, I believe that this battle will be decided in the next few days. Whether the Ukrainian dream comes true or the European Union burns itself, time will give the answer.