(Report Producer/Author: Changjiang Securities, Fan Chao, Li Jinbao)
1 New brake materials: carbon carbon /ceramic performance decryption?
Generally speaking, the brake material applied to braking, its main function is to convert kinetic energy into thermal energy and absorb or dissipate heat through friction, thereby gradually reducing the relative speed of motion between the part where the brake material is located and the part that is fitted by it (the part where the brake material is located and the part that is fitted by it constitutes a friction pair, and all the friction pairs constitute the brake pair as a whole), until the movement is stopped, and the braking purpose is achieved.
To enable the brake pair to complete the above braking process, the ideal brake material should have the following properties: sufficient and stable tribological factor; High thermal conductivity and heat resistance; High abrasion resistance; good resistance to oil, moisture and corrosion; Sufficient strength; Little or no noise is generated when frictional contact with the bonded parts; no bonding or bite occurs in the work; the source of raw materials is abundant, the price performance ratio is high, and the process performance is good. The classification of brake materials is divided into 3 categories according to the type of material material: resin-based brake materials (asbestos brake materials, asbestos-free brake materials, paper-based brake materials), powder metallurgy brake materials, carbon/carbon composite brake materials and ceramic-based brake materials.
2 Three tens of billions of markets, the new blue ocean under the change of technology
Aircraft carbon brakes: domestic curve overtaking, the current focus on inspection and maintenance
Performance application: Carbon and carbon application is more mature, the future or towards carbon pottery
Aircraft brake pairs are divided into two categories: powder metallurgy aircraft brake pairs and carbon/carbon composite aircraft brake pairs, which are installed on aircraft wheel devices for aircraft take-off, landing, taxiing, turning and parking, and are key components of aircraft class A side by side with aircraft engines. Due to the low density, high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, excellent friction and wear performance, good thermal vibration resistance and less prone to sudden catastrophic damage, carbon/carbon composite materials have become the preferred braking material for aviation braking devices.
The development history of brake discs of overseas carbon carbon aircraft. Carbon brakes for aircraft were first used abroad in the 60s and 70s of the last century. At present, except for a few models such as the Boeing 737 series, all the aircraft produced by Boeing and Airbus have been equipped with carbon brake discs. Since 2008, French and American companies have begun to provide carbon brake modifications for all Boeing 737 models, and at present, domestic and foreign airlines have chosen to modify or newly introduce Boeing 737 aircraft equipped with carbon brakes, which means that in the future, boeing and Airbus will all be equipped with carbon brake discs.
The history of the development of carbon brake discs for continental aircraft. China's aviation brake material research began in the 1950s to 1960s, aerospace industry brake (514 factory), since its inception in 1955, to undertake the national mission of aviation wheel brake technology and brake materials development, in the 1960s began to develop powder metallurgy brake materials, although compared with the world's aviation countries research started late, but the development speed is very fast, iron-based and copper-based powder metallurgy brake materials, in a relatively short period of time to assemble domestic military aircraft; in the 1970s, aiming at the international cutting-edge technology, Breaking the blockade of Western technology, we began to develop carbon/carbon composite materials, and achieved its first flight on a domestic military aircraft in the 1990s, filling the gap in the application of carbon/carbon brake materials in China's aviation. 1 At present, Continental carbon brake products have been widely used in the domestic inspection and maintenance market.
In addition, in the field of carbon ceramic brake discs, the technical level of the mainland is significantly ahead of overseas. In the 1990s, aircraft carbon ceramic brake technology was just emerging in the world, and various developed countries have invested heavily in research and development, with little effect. In 2004, Northwestern Polytechnical University and AVIC Xi'an Aviation Brake Technology Co., Ltd. joined hands, after 12 years of research, tens of thousands of bench tests, a total of three key technologies, the formation of 5 major technical invention points, access to 19 national authorized invention patents, the first in China, the achievement finally stood on the podium of the 2016 National Science and Technology Awards Conference. Compared with the previous generation of brake discs, the carbon-ceramic brake disc has an increase in static friction coefficient of 1 to 2 times, a decrease in wet friction performance by more than 60%, a wear rate reduction of more than 50%, and a service life increase of 1 to 2 times; the production cycle is reduced by 2/3, the production cost is reduced by 1/3, the energy consumption is reduced by 2/3, and the cost performance is increased by 2 to 3 times. The price is only equivalent to 50% to 60% of similar foreign products, which is currently found in the international community that few materials can be found in the high temperature environment of 1500 ° C, and the physical properties do not decay, making the mainland the first country in the world to take the lead in using carbon ceramic brake discs; after the promotion and application, it can save about 300 million yuan in costs for mainland civil aviation passenger aircraft every year.
Further, how does the performance of carbon-carbon brakes in the aircraft field compare with traditional steel brakes?
1) Realize the weight reduction of the brake device
The density of carbon/carbon composite brake material is 1.75-1.80g/cm3, while the density of steel material is 7.8g/cm3, and the density of carbon/carbon composite material is only 23% of the density of powder metallurgy material. Brakes using a carbon heat reservoir can be reduced in weight by around 40% compared to steel brakes.
2) Improve the service life of the brake discs
Under normal conditions of use, the friction coefficient of carbon/carbon composite brake material is stable, the wear resistance and repetitive work performance are good, and the wear amount under the same use conditions is about 1/3-1/7 of steel brake material. This greatly extends the service life of the brake discs and reduces the workload of wheel maintenance.
3) High load carrying level, strong overload capacity
Carbon/carbon composite brake materials do not melt at temperatures up to 2000°C, do not bond (steel brake discs bond), and have no significant warpage deformation. When the service temperature rises to 775°C, the specific strength of the carbon/carbon composite remains unchanged, while the steel material is significantly reduced, and the maximum use temperature of the steel brake disc does not exceed 900°C. These preferential properties of carbon/carbon composites improve the reliability of the brakes when the aircraft takes off and land under complex conditions. Under the extremely harsh conditions of use when the aircraft interrupts take-off, due to the large overload capacity of the carbon brake disc, it can ensure that the brake device is not damaged, and the braking process can be kept smooth and the brake response is sensitive.
Market analysis: domestic penetration rate of about 40%, in the medium term more than 10 billion can be expected
In the civil aircraft market, except for a few models of Boeing 737, all of which do not use carbon brake discs, the rest of the models all use carbon brake discs. In recent years, the mainland's civil aviation industry has developed rapidly, and the number of civil aviation aircraft has shown an upward trend year by year. By the end of 2017, there were 3,326 civil aviation aircraft on the mainland, of which 1,804 were aircraft using carbon brakes. We expect penetration to continue to increase between 2017 and today. It is estimated that in the current civil aircraft market, the application of carbon brake discs may account for more than 50%; the military aircraft market accounts for about 30%.
From the perspective of the carbon brake disc market, in 2015, the demand for brake discs for civil aircraft in the mainland was 75,000 disks, and the demand for military aircraft was 12,000 disks, with a total demand of 87,000 disks; while the actual annual production capacity of the mainland was 30,000 disks (output of 29,000 disks), which means that the localization ratio of carbon carbon brake discs in mainland aircraft in 2015 was 33%, mainly still relying on imports, and it is expected that the current localization ratio has been greatly improved.
As of 2019, the number of registered aircraft (transportation) in the mainland is 3893, and the number of registered airworthy aircraft (general category) is 3640, a total of 7533 aircraft; while in 2019, the newly registered transport aircraft is 220 and the general class is 393, further considering that there are still a small number of transportation periods written off each year, so the demand for new aircraft is less; the corresponding carbon carbon brake demand is more based on the replacement demand of existing aircraft (and the brake materials for newly registered aircraft are mainly dominated by overseas enterprises).
Based on this, we do a market space assessment:
1, we are divided into civil aircraft and military aircraft 2 markets are calculated separately, the number of aircraft from the Civil Aviation Administration issued, replacement frequency once a year; as far as civil aircraft is concerned, 1 aircraft 4 brake pairs, a brake pair 9 brake discs; as far as military aircraft are concerned, 1 aircraft 2 main engine wheeled brake pairs, a brake pair 9 brake discs.
2. Combined with past data (2011-2015), it is assumed that the price of a single brake disc in 2016-2019 is 30,000 yuan / piece.
3. The permeability of carbon carbon brake discs is increased by about 2 pcts per year on the basis of 2015. From this, we estimate that in 2019, the penetration rate of carbon carbon brake discs for civil aircraft in mainland China is 48%, and the market space is 3.9 billion yuan; the penetration rate of carbon carbon brake discs for military aircraft is 30%, and the market space is 520 million yuan; and the total market space is 4.4 billion yuan.
Further, if we optimistically estimate, assuming that the number of long-term mainland civil aviation aircraft is 10,000, the carbon-carbon penetration rate is 100%; the military aircraft is 5,000, and the carbon-carbon brake penetration rate is 100%; then the total aircraft carbon-carbon brake disc market space is 13.5 billion yuan, which is about 3 times larger than the current market capacity.
Looking at the global market further: The global aircraft carbon brake disc market size was 580,000 in 2015. At present, North America is the main market for carbon brake discs in the world, and it is also the most mature market, in 2015, the North American carbon brake disc market accounted for 31.6% of the overall market, Europe accounted for 25.6%, and Asia Pacific accounted for 28.4%. If the global demand for carbon brake discs in 2020 is 800,000 units and the unit price is 30,000 per disk, the global market capacity is at least 24 billion yuan.
Competitive landscape: The domestic technical level ranks among the world, and the threshold restricts the current focus on maintenance
The main foreign manufacturers of carbon brake discs are Safran (Michelle) in France, United Air Transport (Goodrich) in the United States, Honeywell in the United States and Megite in the United Kingdom. The main domestic ones are Xi'an Brake, Changsha Xinhang and Xi'an Chaoma. At present, some domestic companies continue to make technological breakthroughs, with high performance and relatively preferential prices, are gradually replacing similar foreign products.
In addition, the industry has a high barrier to entry, and the PMA certificate certification barriers are high and the cycle is long. The aircraft parts manufacturer's approval letter (PMA) was originally due to the fact that original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) no longer supply aviation materials for some discontinued aircraft models, and PMA products became their only source of aviation parts. PMA products typically cost 30%-60% less than OEM products. The reason for the high price of OEM products is that OEMs usually put research and development costs and profits on the sales of spare parts for aerospace parts, so their sales prices are much higher than manufacturing costs. In recent years, in order to reduce the maintenance cost of civil aircraft, the United States has approved PMA products and domestic PMA products registered in China for civil aircraft have been used on a large scale. Civil aircraft brake by-products need to be verified by the Civil Aviation Administration of Civil Aviation for a series of airworthiness, and after passing, they obtain the "Parts Manufacturer Approval Letter" (PMA certificate), and the whole process usually takes 2-3 years. It is difficult for general enterprises to obtain PMA certificates, so they cannot enter the relevant markets. (Source: Future Think Tank)
Xi'an brake
Founded in 1955, the company is approved by the General Equipment Department of aircraft wheel brakes and brake system research and production supporting license units, in 2012 the company's aviation business integration and listing became AVIC Xi'an Brake Branch under the 000768. The company's R&D center is located in Xi'an High-tech Zone, and the production test base is located in Xingping City, Shaanxi Province and Anshun City, Guizhou Province. The company's "development and application of carbon ceramic aircraft brake function composite materials", "aircraft electro-hydraulic self-feeding braking device and anti-skid control new technology", won the second prize of the national technological invention, representing the top level in the field in China. The company has created a precedent for the research and development and preparation of carbon-based brake materials in China, breaking the monopoly of technology in the United States, Britain and France, making China the fourth country in the world to master the preparation technology of carbon-based brake materials.
The company's aviation business mainly includes aircraft wheels, brake devices, anti-skid brake systems and electromechanical hydraulic accessories products, and the current domestic market share is more than 90%. With civil aviation maintenance and foreign trade subcontracting as the platform, the company has obtained the CAAC of the Civil Aviation Administration of China and the EASA Maintenance Accreditation Certificate of the European Aviation Safety Administration, and has established good cooperative relations with international well-known enterprises such as Boeing, Goodrich, Moog, UTC, Safran in France, and Dunlop in the United Kingdom. The company undertakes the civil aviation maintenance business of more than 20 models and more than 180 pieces of wheel brake and aero-hydraulic accessories products such as Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Xinzhou series, and is the largest wheel brake maintenance enterprise in northwest China. In addition, the company in the non-aviation field brake product development also has a layout, products involving automobiles, rail transit, wind power and other fields, long-term for FAW-Volkswagen and other well-known domestic car companies to produce brake products, the development of a new generation of brake materials successfully applied to Ferrari, Porsche and other high-end cars, to fill the domestic gap.
The company uses the integral needle felt + chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process to prepare the carbon brake disc of this type of aircraft, and its average density reaches 1.769g/cm3, which is higher than that of foreign OEM samples. At the same time, the discrete friction performance of the carbon brake material is less than that of foreign OEM parts, and the impact force is small during the braking process, which improves the stability of the aircraft and prolongs the life of the landing gear. Specifically from the production process point of view, Xi'an brake civil airliner carbon brake disc prefabricated body using a layer of imported HTA 12K PANCF weftless cloth and a layer of imported HTA 12K PANCF mesh tire, in accordance with the "no weft cloth - mesh tire - no weft cloth - mesh tire" method when the layer to a certain thickness of continuous needle punching, so that the needle punch fiber due to friction retention in the felt body and become a vertical direction of the fiber, the final precast volume density of (0.45±0.03) g / cm3. Due to the large diameter of the pores inside the low-density precast, it is easier for the gas to enter the pores, and the gas gradually changes from Kundsen diffusion to Fick diffusion during the deposition process, so that the diffusion rate is greater than the deposition rate, which effectively alleviates the crust phenomenon on the surface of the carbon brake disc during the deposition process, which is conducive to densification.
Further, comparing the carbon/carbon brake materials of Xi'an Brake with foreign OEMs, comparing the mechanical properties and frictional properties:
1), mechanical properties
It mainly includes density, graphitization and thermal conductivity, each of which is essential for carbon/carbon composite brake materials for aviation brakes. The performance comparison between the civil carbon brake discs produced by Xi'an Brake Company and the original foreign samples is as follows: The average density of the PMA sample of the civil airliner produced by Xi'an Brake is 1.769g/cm3, the graphitization degree is 17% and 16%, and the comprehensive thermal conductivity is 23W/(m K) and 22.5W/(m K); while the average density of the OEM sample is 1.702g/cm3, the graphitization is 66% and 68%, and the comprehensive thermal conductivity is 44.5W/(m K) and 48W/(m K). The density of carbon brake discs of civil airliners produced by Xi'an Brake is higher than that of foreign original parts, while the physical properties are lower than those of foreign original samples. In fact, the main factors affecting the mechanical properties of carbon/carbon composite brake materials are carbon fiber type, volume fraction and reinforcement method (billet structure), the state of the interface between fiber and matrix carbon, the type and structure of matrix carbon, material density and high temperature heat treatment (graphitization, etc.).
2) Frictional properties
The friction function of the carbon brake disc is the most critical feature of the structure, friction and heat absorption of the aircraft brake material, which is used for the stop brake, differential brake, automatic brake, normal brake, emergency brake and stop brake of the main wheel when the landing gear is closed under various conditions such as taxiing, landing, shutdown and suspension of the aircraft.
The contrast can be seen that the fluctuation range of the torque peak and average torque of the foreign prototype brake disc is large, and the braking performance is relatively unstable, while the torque peak and average torque of the carbon brake disc of the civil airliner produced by Xi'an Brake Company are relatively stable, and the impact force is low during the braking process, which has a great effect on improving the stability of the aircraft and prolonging the life of the landing gear.
Boyun New Materials: Carbon and carbon materials in the aviation and military aircraft fields have a layout, with annual sales of 126 million yuan
Relying on Central South University, the company has gathered a new material talent team led by Academician Huang Boyun of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and has formed a stable industry-university-research platform through industry-university-research cooperation with the State Key Laboratory of Powder Metallurgy, the National Engineering Research Center for Powder Metallurgy, the Laboratory of Lightweight High-strength Materials and other institutions of Central South University, forming a stable industry-university-research platform, and forming a relatively complete innovation chain of basic research-application research-industrialization of powder metallurgy materials, carbon/carbon composite materials in China. In 2020, the company's aviation and civil carbon\ carbon composites were 126 million yuan, accounting for 36% of the total revenue.
In terms of aviation carbon /carbon brake products, the company has obtained PMA certificates for Boeing 757, Airbus 320 series, ERJ190 series, MA60 and other models, and has formed a mass production capacity including the development of carbon brake products commissioned by foreign customers and several military aircraft models of carbon brake products, and is currently continuing to develop a number of models of carbon brake products. The company's advanced carbon brake product technology has been successfully applied to the C919 large aircraft, which can fully meet the performance requirements of the C919 large aircraft. In May 2017, the C919 aircraft loaded with Boyun technology carbon brake products successfully completed its first flight.
In addition, in 2012, Boyun New Materials and Honeywell (China) Co., Ltd. jointly invested in the establishment of Honeywell Boyun Aviation Systems (Hunan) Co., Ltd. on October 26, 2012. Honeywell China holds a 51% stake in the joint venture, which is its controlling shareholder, which holds a 49% stake. According to the agreement, the wheel and brake system (including carbon disc) developed and produced by the joint venture company (including the carbon disc required for after-sales service) will be provided to Honeywell International first, and then sold by Honeywell International to COMAC. At present, due to operational pressure (the joint venture company has continued to lose money in recent years), the company intends to transfer 31% of the equity of the joint venture company to the controlling shareholder Powder Metallurgy Center.
Further, if only for the C919, according to the plan, the annual output of the medium-term C919 is expected to be estimated according to 150 sorties, the unit price is about 1 million, and the annual market capacity is about 150 million; taking into account the continuous replacement demand, the medium-term demand will show a rapid increase trend. In this process, domestic spare parts materials have stronger advantages.
Carbon brakes for high-speed rail: still in the test test, the market is waiting to open
Performance application: powder metallurgy gate mainly
The research and development of brake chips for high-speed trains in mainland China has also developed from the initial cast iron brake pads and synthetic brake pads to the current powder metallurgy brake pads.
The strength and wear resistance of powder metallurgy friction materials depend to a large extent on the microstructure, physical and chemical properties of the matrix, commonly used matrix components are Cu, Ni, Fe, Al, Zn, Sn, Mn, Ti and other metals or their alloys, the most commonly used metal matrix is Fe powder and Cu powder, but the mechanical strength of a single metal matrix is not high, the surface is easy to oxidize, the frictional properties are unstable, therefore, in practical application, the alloy matrix is usually used, and strengthening elements are added to the matrix components, such as Ni, Fe, Sn, Zn, Mo, etc. form metal solid solution strengthening, which can strengthen the matrix, stabilize the friction factor, and improve heat conductivity. Cu-based powder metallurgy friction materials have the advantages of high thermal conductivity, good plasticity, easy sintering, etc., but their mechanical properties are low and the price is relatively high, so they must be alloyed. Commonly used Cu-Sn alloy, Al-Cu alloy, CrCu alloy, etc., but also to add other trace elements such as Zr, Ni, Zn, W and so on for adjustment.
Iron-based powder metallurgy friction materials have low processing costs and high mechanical properties, but are prone to phase changes, softening and bonding when braking applications at temperatures from 500°C to 1000°C. Therefore, iron-based powder metallurgy friction materials are mostly used in the brake pad brakes of locomotives with lower speeds, while copper-based powder metallurgy friction materials are used in the brakes of EMUs with a speed of 250km/h and above.
Market analysis: the potential space is nearly 10 billion, and carbon is just starting out
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Communications: in 2019, the mainland railway put into operation 8489 kilometers of new lines, of which 5474 kilometers of high-speed railways. The operating mileage of railways in china is more than 139,000 kilometers, of which 35,000 kilometers are high-speed railways. In 2012, the number of EMUs nationwide was 1083, and the number of EMUs was 8664. In 2020, the number of EMUs nationwide increased to 3918, and the number of EMUs reached 31340.
High-speed rail brake pads are consumables, a train of EMUs need to replace brake pads about 4 times a year, and the number of each EMU demand is about 24 pieces. According to this calculation, the total demand for new EMUs on the mainland high-speed rail in 2020 is about 49,000 pieces, the replacement demand for high-speed rail is about 3.01 million pieces, and the total demand for brake pads for high-speed rail in mainland China will reach 3.06 million pieces in 2020. In the long run, assuming that the number of high-speed rail is 50,000, the corresponding market space is 10.7 billion yuan. Further, if all are replaced by carbon-carbon brake materials, the market space may be larger (the future technology and performance of carbon-carbon brake materials will be upgraded, and the value of the terminal sales market may be greater than that of pulverized metallurgical brake materials).
Competitive landscape: Powder metallurgy is still being replaced by domestic production, and carbon is in the commissioning stage
Powder metallurgy gate sheets are still in the process of domestic substitution. With the steady progress of China's high-speed rail, foreign high-speed rail brake pad manufacturers have begun to enter the Chinese market, realize the Chinese market through independent operation or joint venture, and become the main supplier of China's high-speed rail brake pad market. In recent years, due to the improvement of independent research and development production capacity of Tianyi Best, Beijing Puran, Boshen Tools and other enterprises, domestic high-speed rail brake products have begun to enter the era of low prices. In 2019, among the domestic high-speed rail brake pad manufacturers, Tianyi's best powder metallurgy brake pad output was 292694 pieces, accounting for 53.21% of the domestic high-speed rail brake pad production, followed by Beijing Puran, with an output of more than 100,000 EMU brake pads, accounting for 19.54%.
Puran, Beijing
Founded in 2008, Beijing Puran is a high-tech enterprise specializing in rail vehicle braking products that integrates R&D, production, sales and after-sales service. From 2014 to 2016, it has successively obtained the European Railway Union UIC certificate (320km/h and 330km/h powder metallurgy brake plates, 200km/h and 300km/h synthetic brake plates and 200km/h and 300km/h enhanced synthetic brake plates), CRCC certificate of China Railway Inspection and Certification Center (250km/h synthetic brakes, 250km/h and 300km/h powder metallurgy brakes and AC drive locomotive brakes), ISO9001 and GB/ T24001 environmental management system certification, GB/T28001 occupational health and safety management system certification and safety production standardization and other certificates, the company has launched the science and technology innovation board listing counseling.
CRRC Qishuyan locomotive
CRRC's CRRC Qishuyan Locomotive is located in Changzhou Economic Development Zone, Jiangsu Province, in the middle section of the Shanghai-Nanjing Railway, and is an important research and development, manufacturing and maintenance base for passenger and freight diesel locomotives in mainland China. The company was founded in 1898, formerly known as Shanghai Wusong Machine Factory. The company covers an area of about 980,000 square meters, with more than 3,500 sets of various types of equipment, with strong mechanical processing and manufacturing capabilities. In recent years, it has successively carried out the manufacture of electric locomotives and subway welded rail vehicles, built a manufacturing base for urban rail vehicles, and fully entered many fields of rail transit equipment such as internal combustion locomotives, electric locomotives, urban rail vehicles, and engineering machinery. The company has more than 3800 employees and more than 1200 technical management personnel.
Shixin New Material: Layout of high-speed rail carbon ceramic brakes, technology leading peers
Hunan Shixin New Materials is located in Zhuzhou City, Hunan Province, high-tech zone "China Power Valley", the company is mainly engaged in high-speed trains, urban rail, subway, maglev trains, as well as automotive, new energy, aerospace and other fields of carbon ceramic composite materials and their products research and development, production and sales.
In the field of rail transportation, Shixin New Materials has led its peers in the layout of carbon ceramic brakes, and for the first time in the world, it has developed carbon ceramic brake discs with a speed of 140 kilometers, 160 kilometers, 200 kilometers and 350 kilometers per hour and a maglev skid with a speed of 600 kilometers per hour, and has cooperated with CRRC OEMs and German Knorr-Bremse to complete the relevant loading verification work.
Tianyi best: domestic high-speed rail brake materials (powder metallurgy) leader, domestic share of 30%+, carbon ceramic high-speed rail brake materials in research and development
The company is a leading supplier of powder metallurgy brake sheets for high-speed rail EMUs in China. The company's independent research and development and production of powder metallurgy brakes for high-speed rail EMUs has covered all 18 railway bureaus under the State Railway Group. The company's products cover 32 domestic EMUs with a speed of 160-350 kilometers per hour and AC transmission locomotive models, and it is a domestic manufacturer that holds the most models covered by the EMU brake plate certification issued by CRCC. In 2020, the company's revenue was 415 million yuan, down 28.7% year-on-year.
The company mainly obtains business by participating in the joint procurement of the State Railway Group, participating in the maintenance of the maintenance base, and participating in the system integration of the system integrator, and the main customers are the 18 railway bureaus under the State Railway Group and its subsidiaries, the brake system integrators under the State Railway Group and the vehicle manufacturing enterprises under CRRC.
In response to the call of the General Railway Corporation to "repair the old and benefit the waste", the company and a number of subordinate enterprises of the Railway Bureau conducted in-depth discussions on the new mode of territorial maintenance of the EMU brakes, gave full play to the actual value of the reuse of the steel back of the brakes, and vigorously promoted the maintenance business in combination with the characteristics of the old Sluices of the EMU such as easy decomposition, fast assembly, safety and reliability. Since the beginning of 2014, the company has signed maintenance agreements with a number of railway bureau subsidiaries, and the maintenance business has become an important source of income for the company. As of 2019, the company's products have now covered 19 EMU models, which is the largest number of models covered by the CRCC nuclear brake plate certification certificate, so the company has a greater competitive advantage.
Tianyi is also actively promoting the research and development of carbon-carbon and carbon ceramic composite materials. Tianli Jiutao has a complete product design, research and development, manufacturing integration capabilities and professional R & D team in the direction of carbon and carbon ceramic composite materials, with high-performance brake discs, large-size special-shaped parts of vapor deposition, reaction melting, high temperature heat treatment, surface treatment and other processing capabilities, is committed to high temperature resistance high strength and light composite products development and manufacturing, its main product application areas include aerospace, high-speed rail, automotive, etc. In the process of research and development of automotive carbon ceramic brake discs, the company has realized the technological innovation of automotive carbon ceramic brake disc structure, and solved the problem of exposing the fibers on the surface of multi-dimensional long fiber woven carbon ceramic discs. At the same time, Tianli Jiutao has undertaken the research project of carbon ceramic brake pads for high-speed rail with a speed of 400 kilometers per hour, and has completed the delivery of samples and submitted to the relevant departments for testing.
Car carbon brake: the sports car has used carbon ceramic, and the general push still needs to reduce the cost
Performance applications: Carbon carbon has certain defects, and the sports car market has begun to use carbon ceramic
At present, the brake materials widely used in high-speed trains, automobiles and aircraft are mainly powder metallurgy and C/C composites. However, powder metallurgy brake materials have shortcomings such as easy bonding at high temperature, easy decline in friction performance, significant decrease in high temperature strength, poor thermal shock resistance, and short service life; while C/C brake materials have low static and wet friction coefficients (wet relative dry attenuation of about 50%), large heat library volume, long production cycle (about 1200h) and high production costs, which restrict its further development and application. Carbon ceramic brake material is a high-performance brake material developed in recent years after powder metallurgy materials and C/C composite materials. Compared with traditional metal and semi-metallic brake materials, it has the advantages of low density, high strength, stable friction performance, small friction amount, large braking ratio, high temperature resistance and long service life. Compared with C/C composite materials, due to the introduction of an appropriate amount of SiC ceramic hard material as a matrix, the oxidation resistance and friction coefficient of the material can be improved, and the friction performance is not sensitive to the external environmental media (mold and oil, moisture, etc.). Therefore, carbon ceramic C/SiC brake materials have broad application prospects in high-speed trains, automobiles, aircraft and other fields.
Compared from the structure, the difference between the two is more obvious. Carbon carbon is composed of carbon fiber, graphite carbon and free carbon, all carbon, so called carbon carbon; carbon pottery is composed of carbon fiber, graphite carbon, free carbon and silicon carbide ceramics, so it is called carbon pottery. Compared with carbon pottery, although the two are only one more kind of silicon carbide, they have changed in many properties. More silicon carbide is no longer afraid of water, so that the friction coefficient of dry and wet is the same; more silicon carbide makes the density increase, the overall mechanical properties of the brake pads are enhanced, and it is still stable under heavy loads; more silicon carbide makes the oxidation resistance enhanced; but more silicon carbide also makes the heat transfer effect lower.
Carbon ceramic brake system, the core component is the brake disc, the material of the disc is not the previous cast iron or alloy steel material, but at a high temperature of 1850 ° C carbon fiber and silicon carbide synthesis of carbon ceramic composite material. The weight of the carbon ceramic disc is less than half that of the ordinary cast iron disc, so the advantages of the carbon ceramic brake disc are realized in the context of the increase in the demand for weight reduction of new energy vehicles.
Tesla has begun using carbon-ceramic brake discs. In November 2021, Tesla announced that it would provide a carbon-ceramic brake kit for the model S Plaid model, the fastest production car under the banner, in mid-2022, which has cost $20,000. Tesla says: "The Model S Plaid carbon-ceramic brake kit is designed for the ultimate track experience and is a complete hardware suite that delivers maximum, repeatable braking power during high-performance driving.
Market analysis: Medium-term anchor to C-class cars, the potential market is tens of billions
Considering that the cost and price of carbon-based brakes are relatively expensive, the possible alternative market in the medium term is more in the high-end model market. According to the car classification standard, the main passengers are divided into three categories, A-class cars generally refer to small cars; B-class cars are mid-range cars; C-class cars are high-end cars. In 2020, the mainland A-class car market has the highest sales volume, accounting for an average of 58.5%, followed by B-class cars and C-class cars, with an average proportion of 24.4% and 8.2%, respectively, and the remaining A0 and A00 class cars account for a relatively small proportion.
Further measurement of potential market space:
1, the new car market: considering the long service life of the brake disc, generally more than 70,000 kilometers before it needs to be replaced, so the replacement cycle is longer, and the demand comes more from the new car market; assuming that the annual output of mainland vehicles in the medium term is 20 million, and the C-class car accounts for 10%, which is 2 million; therefore, assuming that the unit price of the bicycle passenger is 10,000 yuan, and 60% of the C-class cars use carbon ceramic brakes, then the market space can reach 12 billion yuan.
2, the transformation car market: the current mainland car ownership of 300 million, the proportion of modification is about 5% (The proportion of modification in Europe and the United States is 80%); it is assumed that the proportion of modification in the future will remain 5%. Further, assuming that the proportion of carbon brake discs replaced in long-term modified vehicles is 10%, the corresponding carbon ceramic brake disc market space is 15 billion; if you consider the increase in the proportion of future modifications and the increase in the penetration rate of carbon ceramic brake disc materials during the modification process, the space is larger.
Competitive landscape: overseas enterprises dominate the market, and domestic technology is intensified
At present, carbon ceramic brakes have been applied in the high-end automobile market, and the production enterprises are mainly overseas leading countries. At present, there are LEMYTH Lemay, Daopuan and other enterprises with production capacity. At the same time, some listed companies have also begun to lay out in the field of carbon ceramic brake discs, such as Jimbo shares and Tianyi.
Brembo: A leader in carbon-ceramic brakes
Brembo is a multinational group operating in 15 countries on three continents, with 7 research laboratories, 23 production sites, 6 commercial offices and selling products in more than 70 countries around the world. The company employs more than 12,000 people, about 10 percent of whom are engineers and product specialists engaged in advanced R&D.
Brembo Ceramic Brake Systems SpA was born in 2003 and is headquartered in the new Kilometre Redwall Technology Park in Stezzano. Brembo and the Daimler-Chrysler Group jointly created the joint venture, from which Daimler withdrew its investment, so Brembo and SGL Group continued to work together on this path, and in May 2009 brembo SGL Carbon Ceramic Brakes S.p.A. was formed, in which each side held a 50% stake. Currently, Breber SGL Carbon Fiber Ceramic Brakes has two operation centers, one in the Kilometre Redwall Technology Park in Stezzano and the other in Meitingen, Germany. Customers include Aston Martin, Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Daimler, Ferrari, General Motors, Lamborghini and Porsche.
At present, the vast majority of carbon ceramic brakes of major brands are oem of Brembo, and Brembo has a monopoly position in the production of carbon ceramic brakes. Brembo's carbon ceramic discs are woven using the staple fiber weaving method, which is slightly lower in cost and slightly faster than long fiber weaving.
Brembo has 5 R&D centers, 19 factories and 23 business centers in 14 countries around the world, with more than 10,800 employees, nearly 10% of whom are engineers and product specialists in R&D, with annual sales revenues of more than 2.6 billion euros. Brembo has been in China for nearly 20 years, with its Chinese headquarters in Nanjing. The company has 1 R&D center, 3 production bases, 1 aftermarket trading company in China and the Asia-Pacific region, with a total of more than 1,800 employees and an annual operating income of about 2.5 billion yuan.
In terms of financial data, Brembo's revenue in 2020 was 2.2 billion euros, net profit was 140 million euros, and net profit margin was 6%; in terms of region, North America and Germany accounted for a relatively high proportion; China contributed 340 million euros to its revenue, accounting for 15.3% of its overall revenue.
Brembo SGL has two ceramic disc types, CCB (Carbon Ceramic Brakes) and CCM (Ceramic Composite Material) and CCM-R. CCB is a CC disc with a silicon carbide /SiC) surface layer, the other CCM is not; CCM-R is the highest-end product, a set of calipers with a price of about 30,000 US dollars, especially for Porsche, Lamborghini, Ferrari and other high-end sports cars customized. (Source: Future Think Tank)
Lemai Technology: One of the few enterprises in China and even in Asia that can mass-produce carbon/carbon ceramic brakes
Shenzhen Lemai Technology was established in May 2017, its predecessor is Shenzhen Lema Brake Technology Co., Ltd. (established on January 21, 2011). Since its inception in 2011, the company has focused on the research and development, production, sales and after-sales service of carbon fiber composite braking systems for passenger cars, mainly selling to racing cars and high-end modified vehicles, becoming the first manufacturer in China and the Asia-Pacific region to mass-produce carbon fiber composite braking system products (carbon-carbon composite & carbon ceramic compound). The company's products are sold in the global market and the products enter the global Formula 1 racing brake system product supplier series. On May 26, 2017, the company introduced the strategic cooperation and investment of Huawu shares, a listed company, and changed its name to Shenzhen Lamai Technology Co., Ltd. LeMyth Carbon-Ceramic Brake System GT Edition, which effectively improves braking performance and safety performance to meet the braking needs of vehicles from street to road, ST Competitive Edition meets the demanding braking performance requirements of vehicles in competitive tracks.
Daopuan: An enterprise that laid out carbon ceramic brakes earlier in China
Shandong Daopuan Brake Material Co., Ltd. is the leader of carbon ceramic brake materials in China, and the company has obtained the quality system certification of the automotive industry (TS16949). Daopuan cooperates with many key universities at home and abroad, specializing in the research and development of friction products, carbon/carbon, carbon/ceramic brake series products have obtained 27 patent achievements, and undertaken 2 provincial scientific research projects. The products have excellent performance such as lightweight, high strength, high temperature resistance and wear resistance, and have been successfully applied to the modification of Porsche, Maserati, Ferrari, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other models.
At present, the carbon ceramic brake disc has two kinds of long fiber carbon ceramic brake disc and short fiber molded carbon ceramic brake disc, compared to the mechanical performance of the short fiber carbon ceramic brake disc is poor, the disc surface has cracks, easy to fall off the block and other shortcomings, the mechanical properties of the long fiber carbon ceramic brake disc are better, the elongation of the long fiber carbon ceramic material can reach 0.4% ~ 0.6%, much higher than the short fiber carbon ceramic disc 0.1% ~ 0.3%, with similar fracture behavior with metal materials, overcoming the traditional ceramic brittleness, easy to break the shortcomings, the brake disc mechanical performance is better.
Fudi Technology: Independent research and development of carbon ceramic brake discs, walking in the forefront of the industry
BYD's subsidiary, Fordy Technology, has the ability to independently develop and produce carbon ceramic brake discs. Fordy Technology was established in Shanghai in 2003, and was reorganized and merged into Fordi Technology at the end of 2019, with its headquarters in Shenzhen. The main products of Fudi Technology are air conditioning system, vehicle wiring harness level distribution, intelligent cockpit, passive safety, ADAS, body control and accessories, emission system, suspension system, braking system, steering system, Fudi Technology has 3 major R & D bases and 7 production bases, Shenzhen, Xi'an, Changsha, Anyang, Shangluo, Danyang, Huizhou, a total construction area of 840,000 square meters. At present, the automakers directly equipped include BYD, Great Wall, Changan, Dongfeng, Chery, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Weilai, Baoneng, Xiaopeng, Weichai, FAW and so on. The company has more than 24,000 employees, rich experience in cooperation with OEMs, and has a cumulative supply of 4.5 million + car pairs and an annual production capacity of 1.5 million + car pairs in 16 years.
In the second half of 2021, BYD subsidiary Fordy Technology released a self-developed carbon ceramic brake disc and a brake caliper specially developed for BYD Han.
Jimbo Co., Ltd.: Strategic cooperation with Aisheng Automobile to promote the application of high-performance carbon ceramic composite brake materials
On October 26, 2021, Jinbo Co., Ltd. announced that it intends to invest 150 million yuan in the high-tech zone of Yiyang City, Hunan Province to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Hunan Jinbo Carbon Ceramic Technology Co., Ltd. On December 23, 2021, Jinbo Co., Ltd. said that its wholly-owned subsidiary Jinbo Carbon Ceramics signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hunan Huda Aisheng Automobile Technology Development Co., Ltd. to jointly promote the application of high-performance carbon/ceramic composite brake materials. Hunan Huda Aisheng Automobile Technology Development Co., Ltd. was established in 2007 relying on the State Key Laboratory of Advanced Design and Manufacturing of Automobile Bodies of Hunan University, is a leading automotive technology company integrating automotive frontier theory and technology research, vehicle and parts research and development, testing, trial production and equipment development, the company currently employs more than 1300 people, including more than 40 doctors, more than 200 masters, bachelor degree or above accounted for more than 90% of the total number of the company, the company and more than 20 domestic and foreign OEMs, The scientific research institute has carried out scientific research cooperation, successfully developed, modified and optimized more than 100 models, and accumulated rich R & D experience and automotive industry resources. We believe that the company has a relatively deep technical reserve in the field of carbon and carbon materials, and is expected to gradually usher in new breakthroughs in the field of carbon brakes in the future.
Tianyi Best: Raise anchors to carbon ceramic brake products
In January 2022, Tianyi Best issued a pre-increase plan, which intends to issue no more than 134 million shares to specific targets and raise no more than 2.369 billion yuan for the industrialization construction project of high-performance carbon ceramic brake discs, the construction project of carbon carbon material products prefabrication automation intelligent weaving production line and supplementary working capital. According to the preliminary plan, the total investment amount of the high-performance carbon ceramic brake disc industrial construction project is 1.54 billion yuan, and the raised funds are planned to be used for 1.32 billion yuan. The main products of the project are carbon ceramic brake discs, with a production capacity of 150,000 sets per year after production, mainly used for new energy vehicles, high-end passenger cars, commercial vehicles and special vehicle brake systems, including the new car market and the automotive aftermarket. The company has a professional technology research and development team of 22 people in the field of carbon ceramic composite materials, including 11 people with master's degree or above, including 1 doctor. Team members from Northwestern Polytechnical University, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Harbin Engineering University and Beijing Institute of Technology and other well-known universities at home and abroad, the technical team members engaged in carbon matrix composite material research and development for many years, excellent technical research and development team for the implementation of the project to provide technical support, for the smooth implementation of the project to provide a guarantee. The company is the drafting unit of the "Carbon Ceramic Automobile Brake Disc Group Standard" of the Automobile Industry Association, signed a carbon ceramic brake system development agreement for sports car projects with a car company in Zhejiang, and signed a carbon ceramic brake cooperation development agreement with the brake development department of a car company in Shenzhen.
3 Summary: The rise of new forces in China dominates the second growth curve of enterprises
Our aggregated analysis of the above:
1, the application field: At present, carbon-based brake materials are mainly in the aircraft market has achieved a good popular application, in the automotive field is also some applications, focusing on high-end racing and other fields; the field of high-speed rail currently needs further demonstration and testing;
2, market space: in 2019, the penetration rate of mainland civil aircraft is nearly 50%, military aircraft are 30%, the market is 4.4 billion yuan, and the medium-term space is more than 10 billion; in the field of high-speed rail, it is basically powder metallurgy materials, and the localization ratio is only 20%, and the future national market space can also reach 10 billion; if the long-term carbon replacement space will be greater; the brake materials in the automobile market are mainly cast iron, and if the future carbon ceramic can be fully replaced by C-class vehicles, then the domestic market space can also reach 10 billion.
3, the competitive landscape: the aircraft field carbon carbon brake materials are mainly foreign enterprises OEM-based, such as French Safran (Michel), the United States Goodrich, Honeywell; the domestic leading enterprises for Xi'an brake, the share is expected to be 90%; Beimo Gaoke, Boyun new materials also have a small number of production and sales; high-speed rail field, the current import is the mainstay, domestic enterprises for Tianyi is the best, the share of more than 50%, Beijing Puran, Shixin new materials, etc.; the global leader of carbon ceramic brakes in the automotive field is Brembo, and some domestic enterprises have begun to seek technological breakthroughs.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].