【Editor's Note】This article is the author's own authorization of the original exclusive debut. The author is Wang Gaigai, founder and dean of the Great Diplomatic Think Tank (GDYT), and the director of the "China Diplomatic Risk Assessment" project of the Great Diplomatic Think Tank.
Many domestic views are hyping up the strategic value of the Ukrainian crisis to China, believing that China will gain new "strategic opportunities". However, these views are probably unreliable. China will still face strategic pressure from the United States, and this pressure will continue to rise. Whether this war becomes a "strategic opportunity" for China depends on whether China can turn passive into active.
The Russo-Ukrainian war will not drag on for long, and China will not consider reaping the benefits
If the Russo-Ukrainian war helps China, there is only one possibility, and that is that Russia will attract long-term U.S. resource investment in Europe, thereby reducing strategic pressure on China. But this is unlikely, because Russia will soon end the war and take control of the situation in Ukraine.
Before Putin went to war on Feb. 24, the vast majority of Analysts in China were adamant that "war will not break out." After the outbreak of the war, many analysts believed that "Putin is difficult to win." These views are probably wishful thinking, putin will successfully occupy Ukraine, and the resistance will not last long. In the past two days, Foreign Affairs has published an article, which I think is very logical.
When Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015, Obama claimed that Syria would become a "quagmire" for Russia. But russia's involvement in Syria proved to be very successful and cemented Assad's rule. Compared with the United States' reckless bombing, Russia is more adept at intervening in conflicts with other countries.
Many Westerners now feel that Russia will fall into the "quagmire" of Ukraine. For example, Britain's Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clevely, predicts that Russia will pay a high price in Ukraine, and the United States estimates that ukraine will have as many as 50,000 civilian casualties. Moreover, a war that would weaken Putin's support among Russia's elite could endanger Russia's economy and alienate the public.
But these analysts underestimated Russia's strength and the war in Ukraine's boost to Putin's personal prestige. Unlike Afghanistan in 1979, Ukraine is very familiar to Russia. Ukraine is the birthplace of Russian Orthodox civilization, and Russians are very familiar with every plant and tree in Ukraine. The terrain of Ukraine is not suitable for defense, it is impossible to fight guerrilla warfare, and the Population of Ukraine has been declining.
Russia's means are numerous, and Ukraine cannot resist them. Russia could set up a puppet government in Kiev, or divide Ukraine, or disarm the Ukrainian army. In addition, Russia can induce regime change through the threat of force, the use of cyberattacks and information warfare. Any of these methods is difficult for the West to effectively block.
The "Iron Curtain" moved westward again, and a new strategic equilibrium was formed
Similar to the point of view in this article, I think that as a result of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the "Iron Curtain" moved westward again. After the end of the Cold War, the United States moved the Iron Curtain from the Szczecin-Trieste line to the East to the Baltic-Romanian-Bulgarian line. But as Turkey and the United States part ways and Ukraine is about to be occupied by Russia, the Iron Curtain will move westward again. With Russia's counterattack, the EU and NATO will no longer be able to develop ambitious policies beyond their own borders. While the West imposes comprehensive sanctions on Russia, Russia can resort to asymmetrical countermeasures, circumventing sanctions through cyberwarfare and energy means. Russia has the largest conventional military power in Europe, and the EU's defense policy is far from providing security for its member states. Economic sanctions do not serve their purpose.
Biden's so-called "return to Europe" is actually unpopular in the United States, the American people do not support it, and the United States does not have enough money. Now that Biden has hit a wall on Ukraine, it will increase the condemnation of Biden's policies in the United States and accelerate his ouster in 2024. As a result, the United States will become more isolationist. The United States will seek a decent outcome and a rapprochement with Russia. Even so, the United States is not a loser, after all, the West still accepted the three Baltic states and extended the Cold War Iron Curtain eastward. Moreover, the West feels that it is not a loss of merit to run into a wall on Ukraine, because it is itself the result of the pursuit of unnecessary security.
The Crisis in Ukraine is not conducive to the reunification of Taiwan
The Ukraine crisis could have a negative impact on our liberation of Taiwan. Ukraine is not an ally of the United States, nor is it a member of NATO, and the United States has never committed itself to military obligations to Ukraine. The United States enacted a domestic law in 1979 called the Taiwan Relations Act, which continues to treat Taiwan as a "country", violating the principles agreed upon by both sides when China and the United States established diplomatic relations and the commitments of the United States, and is a blatant interference in China's internal affairs.
The United States and Europe have been hesitant to deal with Ukraine, and thus have no continuous policy. Immediately after the 2004 color revolution, the United States did not admit Ukraine to NATO. Economically, the EU felt Ukraine was a burden and did not replicate the Marshall Plan. However, the U.S. policy toward Taiwan has been consistent and has hardly changed, in order to maintain de facto division. Since at least 2001, the United States has repeatedly emphasized its military obligations to Taiwan and expressed its determination to prevent China's reunification.
Today's world is far different from that of 2014, when Russia's invasion of Crimea did exacerbate tensions and contradictions with the West. However, the relationship between China and the United States at that time was very close, and there was more cooperation than confrontation. Many people always feel that Russia provides a strategic opportunity for China, but this is completely an illusion. After Trump took office, the hostility of Americans towards China was irreversible. Whatever happens to Russia and the West today, the United States will not change its existing strategic line.
Recently, many English-language media have been discussing how the United States should strengthen its defense against Taiwan. The United States has retreated on Ukraine. In order to save its reputation, the United States will certainly step up its support for "Taiwan independence" elements and not let Asian allies think that the United States is incapable of protecting Taiwan. The Americans believe that the loss of Taiwan is even more disastrous. Moreover, geographically, Ukraine and Taiwan are not comparable. After all, Taiwan has the protection of the strait, and Chinese mainland is not easy to attack, unlike Ukraine, which is exposed to direct Russian attack. Therefore, we must be well prepared and avoid light enemies!
Japan will be the beneficiary and will have greater freedom of movement
The Ukraine crisis has excited Japan, which is very much in favor of imposing tough sanctions on Moscow. This statement has multiple implications for Japan. On the one hand, Japan can show loyalty to the United States and get more resources from the United States. Moreover, Japan itself is a rich country with strong economic power, and its participation in sanctions against Russia will greatly help the United States. The Bank of Japan is reportedly already gathering specific information about which accounts should be frozen.
On the other hand, once the United States puts a lot of resources in Europe, then Japan will gain strategic autonomy and help the United States assume more obligations, which Japan cannot ask for. It is necessary for China to use its diplomatic and military resources to balance Japan's influence, which would limit China's room for maneuver in other strategic areas.
In addition, south Korea will fall to the United States immediately after the South Korean presidential election in March. Yoon Seok-yeol, who is likely to be elected president, will adopt an extreme anti-China policy and restore relations with Japan. This means that China will then seek to balance The anti-China policy of South Korea and Japan with Russia.
China should not be passive and neutral, but should actively intervene
If China is passive and neutral, it will lead to its own passivity. It is clear that Russia's separation of Crimea, Doneesk and Luhansk from Ukraine is clearly not in line with China's long-standing principles. China adheres to its principles and appropriately points out the mistakes of both sides in order to facilitate the embodiment of its moral status.
China must be clear that Sino-US relations are irreparable and cannot have the slightest illusion. Sooner or later, China will have to face the problem of reunification, which means that China will have to be sanctioned by the United States and Europe, and this sanction will certainly be stronger than the sanctions they currently impose on Russia. Today the United States and Europe dare to kick Russian banks out of the SWIFT system, and tomorrow they will kick China out of the SWIFT system. China must plan ahead and cooperate with Russia.
If China wants to resolve the Taiwan issue, it must have credible "political allies," and economic means alone will not work. China's use of economic means to suppress Lithuania has now proved to be less effective. European countries have banded together to respond economically to China, and if they win at the WTO, more countries will unscrupulously follow Lithuania's lead. At this time, China must use political leverage to show its power before the West. China must turn passivity into initiative, seize opportunities, and cooperate with Russia.
Now that the English-language media have agreed that China and Russia are on the same page, that They see China and Russia as the same bloc, and that all their future policies are based on tying the two together. Even if China and Russia keep their distance, the United States will play up the similarities between China and Russia. The world of the future will become a competition between sea power and land power. The United States has formed the Sea Power Alliance, the U.S.-British-Australian AUKUS Alliance, which Japan will soon join. China must also form a land power alliance, otherwise it will be passive. Today, russia faces Western sanctions, and it is crucial for China to provide moral assistance.