The United States and the European Union issued a statement on February 26, 2022: a decision to exclude some Russian banks from the SWIFT system. Many people have called this operation a "financial nuclear bomb", in their eyes, as if as long as the United States and Europe use this "killer skill", it will make Russia suffer heavy losses and let the United States and Europe win, and many pro-American netizens are happy, saying that Russia will be excluded from the SWIFT system, the future will soon decline, in the eyes of these people, the United States or will be the greatest interests again full of blood resurrection. The purpose of this group of righteous and moral people is only to hope that the United States will quickly restore its strength, what if the United States restores its strength and Russia declines? Of course, the United States has once again set its sights on the East, and this is the real intention of these people to rejoice. But what I want to say is that these people are overly happy, the United States and Europe use the dollar and SWIFT as weapons, launch a financial attack on Russia, and think they have the initiative, but what I want to say is that Russia has mastered the real "killer skill", Russia will make the United States and Europe recognize the reality, and even shake the foundation of the United States. Why? In this issue, I will talk to you carefully.
Many people have entered a misunderstanding, they all think that the dollar is the global hard currency, and the SWIFT system based on the dollar, as the world's most widely used and largest payment system, is called "financial nuclear bomb" by many people, in the eyes of many people, as if this is the "killer" of the financial world, as long as it is thrown out, you can beat any country down, but this is a wrong understanding. Because they only see the appearance and not the essence of things. Why does the dollar become a hard currency? That's because you can buy the goods you want in most parts of the world, if you can't buy the dollar, it is not hard currency, and the corresponding SWIFT system is not used by so many people, which is also the foundation of the hegemony of the United States.
The core of trade is not the currency, not the DOLLAR, nor the international payment system represented by SWIFT, but the circulation of goods, and then the core of the trade is the goods, which is the first goods to have transactions, and then there is finance, which is only a tool for the convenience of the exchange of goods, which leaves the goods and is nothing.
The natural resources represented by oil and natural gas in Russia's hands are very important goods in the international market, and they are hard currency. About 50 percent of the EU's oil imports, and 62 percent of its gas imports come from Russia. Specific to a country as an example, 2016 data for example, more than half of Germany's natural gas comes from Russia, more than 62% at the peak, 30% of coal from Russia, 40% of oil from Russia, the reason why Germany can become a European economic power, is because Russia provides a large number of relatively cheap energy as a support. For example, 40% of Italy's natural gas imports come from Russia, about 30% of France's natural gas imports come from Russia, Finland, Bulgaria and other countries rely more on Russian natural gas, in addition to natural gas and oil, coal, iron ore and other natural resources are so, the EU is inseparable from Russia to supply a large number of natural resources.
A question for you, is the EU inseparable from Russia's resources? Or is Russia more inseparable from the dollar or SWIFT system? My answer is that the Eu can not do without Russia's natural resources, prohibit Russia from using the US dollar or SWIFT system, can not hurt Russia at all, after all, the natural resources in Russia's hands are hard currency, he let you take what currency to buy, you have to take what currency to buy, you see Australia's export of iron ore, he wants to use the US dollar, he wants the renminbi to use the renminbi, the same Saudi arabian oil, it is also up to him, such as Iran's oil. Many people think that the US dollar is hard currency, so SWIFT is the leader of the financial community, which is wrong, in essence, goods are real hard currency, if Russia wants the EU to pay in euros in the future, does the EU dare to refuse? Refusal can be, in the future either do not sell or barter on the line, but the difficulty is the EU.
Russia's trade with the EU accounts for 53% of Russia's foreign trade, on the surface it looks like a large amount, the EU sanctions are not good for Russia, but on the contrary, it is more unfavorable to the EU, because more than half of the Russian-European trade is energy trade, that is, Russia exports energy, the United States and Europe themselves have expressed their position, never considered sanctioning Russian energy, because they need and can not find alternative countries so dare not, and another small part of the trade, mainly the EU exports goods to Russia, After not allowing Russia to use the SWIFT system, for EU companies, it is more difficult to export goods to Russia, the largest scope of impact is the EU, you see the Internet some Italian enterprises have been worried, because the use of SWIFT is not allowed, Russia has been unable to purchase from these enterprises, the future does not rule out Russia to India, China and Vietnam procurement, this is a good opportunity for us Oh, you have to be clear, is the EU more companies can not do without the SWIFT system, because they want to export goods to Russia For Russia, it is a big deal to take resources and directly barter with the EU, not to mention that the United States and Europe do not dare to do so, which will reduce the share of the dollar and SWIFT. Forcing all of Russia's energy trade to take the Eastern channel, the establishment of a RMB energy system in China, you should be clear that Russia's classification of the global energy market is very important, is one of the three giants of oil exports, is the absolute giant of natural gas exports, coal and other mineral resources market is also very important. If Russia really wants to operate in this way, then the global commodity market will change, which will threaten the position of the dollar and affect the foundation of US hegemony.
How bullish is Russia in the energy market? The United States and Europe are inseparable from it, the European Union, and then talk about the United States, such as 35% of the import volume of palladium in the United States from Russia, palladium is one of the key materials of the chip, even the United States also has to compromise, you should be clear, Russia needs the goods, basically can be purchased from Asian countries such as China and India, and the United States and Europe need many natural resources, have to purchase from Russia, even if you can find a substitute country, it can not be replaced in the short term.
Taking 2019 as an example, Russia exports 192.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the EU, and can export so much every year, which is the result of Russia and the Soviet Union spending decades building many gas pipelines. Let's not talk about whether we can find a country that can export so much natural gas every year, find reserves that are not enough to support a few years, and have to look back to Russia, the most important thing is that it takes a long time to build so many natural gas pipelines, at least 5-10 years, a pipeline can not move tens of billions of dollars, the European Union does not have so much money to carry out such a large project. So is it okay to ship? The high freight rate of the ship does not say, the key is that the transport volume can not be compared with the pipeline, and the ship transporting natural gas is simply not enough, 2020 for example, the world's largest LNG ship can transport 260,000 cubic meters of liquefied natural gas, if the new transport of 192.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas, means that at least more than 1100 new LNG ships need to be added, such a large amount of global LNG ships can not be built in 10 years, can the EU wait for so many years? The most important thing is that the EU does not buy Russian natural gas, then other countries must seize the opportunity to sell at a higher price, is this just natural gas, oil? How long can the EU hold out with soaring prices of all natural resources? In one year, all the major industrial assemblies of the European Union were lying down. Why?
If the EU does not buy Russian natural resources, it can only import the natural resources of other countries at a high price, which will lead to an increase in industrial costs, which in turn will lead to a sharp rise in prices in all areas of the EU region, in addition to inflation will soar, the competitiveness of all EU commodities will decline, on the contrary, Russia in order to survive, can only export energy at an appropriate low price in Asia, so that the manufacturing costs of China, India, Vietnam and other countries will be reduced, commodity prices will plummet, and the competitiveness will be stronger. One year is enough time for the EU to cry and go back to Russia for peace talks.
Some people say that only the SWIFT system is used to restrict part of russia's economic development, I would like to say that this is too naïve, do you think that Russia is a fish on the board, and you are slaughtered like this? Russia can bargain completely, if Russia needs euros, directly to the EU, you either lift the restrictions on some banks, otherwise I will not export any energy, the EU dares to spend like This with Russia? Of course not. The United States still has a little confidence, it must not lack oil and gas, the most tragic is the European Union, what natural resources want is lacking, everything must be subject to people.
Russia can be self-sufficient in grain, military industry can also be self-sufficient, and in extreme cases energy can be exported to markets outside Europe and the United States to make money, or in exchange for other commodities. On the other hand, the EU is miserable, their good days are all based on the advantages of industrial production, and industrial production is just inseparable from Russia's natural resources, without the advantages, then the economy will have a big problem, the EU people will not make such a big sacrifice for Ukraine.
Russia has been living in poverty since the collapse of the Soviet Union, they have become accustomed to it, and if the European Union loses Russia's cheap natural resources, their economic regression index plummets, do you think the people can tolerate it? If you look back at why the First World War broke out, the EU simply can't afford it. Therefore, in this financial strike action launched by the United States and Europe, many people think that the United States and Europe have the advantage and dominate, in fact, in my opinion, the United States and Europe have no other means, only to use the means of killing a thousand enemies and self-inflicted ten thousand, but it is just a show to trick Ukraine, to coax those countries that still want to join the European Union or NATO, to put it more bluntly, but the United States and Europe in order to maintain their prestige, have to take this means, but also dare not use force, can only carefully scare Russia, This is also why the United States and Europe have only banned some Russian banks from using it, and in the end it is only to give both sides a step down.
When many people thought that the United States and Europe would use SWIFT to fight Russia, I saw another ending, that is, SWIFT would be beaten up by Russia and begin to decline. As mentioned earlier, whether it is the US dollar or the SWIFT system, leaving Russia, a large energy source, the international share will drop by at least 20%, of course, this is the case that the United States and Europe have forced Russia and Russia to retaliate in an all-round way. In this case, Russia can only cooperate with other countries and other currencies, then the global energy market and the global currency market will usher in great changes, which is the biggest variable for the United States.
I even have a bold guess, the EU does not rule out the recurrence of bitter meat (this probability is a bit low, after all, there are no strategists within the EU), in order to crush the DOLLAR and SWIFT system, paving the way for the rise of the euro and the EU's payment system, you should remember that the United States sanctioned Iran, the result of the EU and Iran separately engaged in a payment system, in fact, the EU has always had its own payment system, if the EU cooperates with the United States this time, force Russia out of the dollar market and SWIFT system, What about turning around and working with Russia to get Russia to use the euro and the EU's internal payment system? One thing is certain, the dominance of the dollar in international currency markets will be completely rewritten. And Russia also has backup options, such as China and the renminbi? Didn't we already establish the Shanghai International Energy Center? If a desperate Russia joins, the history of U.S. domination of global commodity prices will be shattered.
So do you still think that the United States and Europe have the upper hand? Russia's use of natural resources as a hard currency will make the EU recognize the reality of who can carry it to the end.