Beginning on February 24, Russia conducted an invasion of Ukraine, with the goal of quickly bringing down Ukraine and bringing proxies to power. Now that we see that Russia has not achieved its strategic objectives in three days, it can be said that this phase of military operations ended in failure.
Destroyed Russian BMD paratrooper fighting vehicle
Looking back at the blows at this stage, we can see that the Russian army is concentrating on fighting. The Russians did not deploy too many heavily armed troops, did not use too many heavy artillery, the participation of the Air and Space Force was low, and even the National Guard appeared on the Kharkov front. From the available information, the Russian army's method of trying to achieve the goal at this stage is to use information, special forces infiltration, small-scale air precision strikes, small-scale mechanized clusters and air assault clusters to carry out mixed warfare to break the morale of opponents. The goal of the campaign is likely to be to quickly capture Kiev and capture the Ukrainian government. So the Russians did not destroy each other's infrastructure and communication networks, and allowed Ukrainian civilians to move around.
Destroyed in Chernihiv, the 35th Independent Guards Motor Rifle Brigade of the Russian Army T-72B3
However, the Russian operation against Kiev failed. Most crucially, the plan to seize the airport has largely failed. On the first day, the Russians landed elite ВДВ (VDV) troops in an attempt to seize control of the airport of the Antonov Design Bureau, and although they repelled several attacks by the 4th Ukrainian Rapid Anti-Brigade, the airport runway was no longer available. On February 26, the Russians again parachuted southwest of Kiev, but the airborne troops were repulsed. Without airfield control, heavy equipment could not be quickly put into combat, and the first phase of the Russian operation had in fact failed.
The reason for the failure is likely to be the targeted training of the Ukrainian army under the guidance of NATO, and the counterattack is very methodical. The Russian army has too many scruples, the firepower is at a disadvantage, and it is not surprising that it cannot seize control. Zelenskiy has left Kiev, and the head of government can still command, indicating that the Russian army cannot lift the Ukrainian government's control over the armed forces.
In the vernacular, it is the failure of the Russian army to steal the house, and thus the opportunity to solve the lowest cost in Ukraine is lost.
Therefore, it is clear that the actions of the Russian army will escalate the measures. There are network videos showing that the Russian army's 2S3 and 2S7 self-propelled guns have been transferred to the front line, and the appearance of these heavy artillery is likely to mean that the Russian army will launch a heavy fire attack to improve the strength of the troops, regardless of collateral casualties. On the other hand, the activities of the Air and Space Force should gradually increase, and large-scale bombing can be expected.
The 2S7 self-propelled gun that enters the front
In the next stage, the Russian military is also likely to adjust its strategy. Kiev may no longer be important, what matters is Lviv, close to Ukraine's border with Poland, where the Russians are likely to launch a major offensive in order to cut off NATO's support for Ukraine and strike the Ukrainian government directly. This would require more troops, meaning that the Russian reserve would be thrown into the battlefield and launch a right-handed all-out offensive from the border between Belarus and Ukraine. After the capture of Lviv, the Russians may meet the Russians on the southern front and attack Kiev on the other side.
At the same time, the Russians may increase their offensive forces in Kharkov and, together with the militias of Eastern Ukraine, encircle or at least crush the main Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine as much as possible, and try to annihilate them. Now the Russians on the northern front may advance along the Dnieper River, cutting off the retreat of the main Ukrainian army.
However, in the first place, the war will be greatly extended, and Russia will need to invest more resources. At the same time, the Russian logistics supply line will be very long, and the fragile logistics convoy is vulnerable to attack by the NATO-backed Ukrainian militia. Third, after the full occupation of Ukraine, the Russian army will need to continue to be stationed, use a lot of troops, and may be caught in a continuous security war with Ukrainian militias, which are likely to be supported by NATO.
In short, the longer it drags on, the more unfavorable it will be for Russia. Those who judged before the outbreak of war that Russia would not fight were also based on such reasons, but they did not expect Putin to dare to make such a big gamble. Now, Russia is a bit difficult to ride the tiger, and it is a foregone conclusion to force a larger military offensive. Russia is likely to be mired in Ukraine, which is an important reason why the Ukrainian government has refused to negotiate.
And if Russia is trapped for a long time, NATO, which is not sending troops now, may send troops, and the situation that Russia will face will be very bad.