On the third day of the conflict, the Russian offensive did not decrease, the will to resist Ukraine was not dissipated, and Ukraine would not go in the future

Before the text: May there be no more wars in the world, and may those who have been devastated by war be safe and sound!

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has now entered a white-hot stage, with russian troops advancing in a big way and reserve armed forces rushing to the front line;

And the Ukrainian side is also desperately resisting, now Ukraine is a soldier, President Zelenskiy said after the beginning of the conflict: Ukrainian citizens can legally carry weapons, the government can provide weapons to any civilian who wants to fight to defend against foreign enemies;

At present, the results announced by the two sides are as follows:

The Russian side said (February 26) that the military has attacked about 800 Ukrainian military installations, including 14 air bases, 19 command facilities, 24 anti-aircraft missile systems, 48 radars, 7 fighter jets, 7 helicopters, 9 drones, 87 tanks and 8 patrol boats;

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (February 26): In two days, the Ukrainian armed forces have shot down 14 enemy fighter jets, 8 helicopters, destroyed more than 600 tanks and armored vehicles, and the number of casualties among Russian soldiers is estimated at about 3,000.

Of course, these casualty figures are released by the opponent, and it is unknown how much "moisture" there is, but the exaggerated component is definitely there, after all, psychological warfare is also a very important part of modern warfare.

Judging from the current developments, both sides seem to be steadily implementing their stated goals:

The focus of the Russian army is the main military facilities in Ukraine, with its strong air power and abundant long-range firepower, he wants to achieve the ultimate goal of the war by rapidly disintegrating the armed forces of Ukraine, and make a quick decision;

The tactic that Ukraine is now executing is "drag"! Because in terms of overall strength, in the absence of any foreign aid, it is impossible for Ukraine's own armed forces to expel Russian troops in a short period of time. Now the only thing Zelenskiy can do is to call on the vast number of Ukrainian people to take up arms and engage in "guerrilla warfare" and "protracted war" with the Russian army, and to harass and deplete the Russian army with sporadic and multi-point battles. Exchanging land for time is ukraine's best counterattack strategy now, so that Ukraine can not only get more support from the international community, but also consume the sharpness of the Russian army on the battlefield.

So how long can Ukraine stand up? (Personal speculation)

Scenario 1: If you simply fight for the "hard power" of the army, Ukraine may soon lose;

Although today's Ukrainian army has grown by leaps and bounds after the Crimean incident (2014) and the defense budget has increased year after year, it is easy to destroy an army, but to build a brave and strong force, just eight years is not enough;

The current paper strength of the Ukrainian armed forces is roughly as follows:

Personnel: about 200,000 active personnel (including 125,000 in the Army, 35,000 in the Air Force, 15,000 in the Navy and other personnel), and about 900,000 reservists;

Equipment: more than 2000 tanks of various types, 2870 armored vehicles, 1960 guns of various types, more than 400 sets of surface-to-air missiles, 146 fighters and 42 helicopters, as for the strength of the Navy is negligible;

Combat experience: The combat experience of the Ukrainian army should be relatively rich at present, after all, the war in the Donbass region in the east of the country has never really subsided in the past eight years;

Foreign Aid: Since the West began predicting Russia's impending "invasion" of Ukraine, there has been a steady stream of military aid of all kinds, with the United States providing Ukraine with about $2.5 billion worth of military aid since 2014. Turkey and the United Kingdom have also provided TB2 drones, short-range anti-tank missiles, Saxon armored vehicles and many military training personnel for the Ukrainian army in the near future.

Assuming that Ukraine's opponent is not Russia, such military strength can be considered possible on a European scale. According to the latest IISS (Institute for International Strategic Studies) military strength rankings, Ukraine ranks 22nd, up more than a dozen from 2014, and the speed of development is obvious to all;

However, quoting Kong Jie's line in "Bright Sword" may be the most appropriate to describe the current Ukraine: Xie Baoqing, Xie Baoqing, you said that you have nothing to provoke Li Yunlong, what is this bastard doing?

The translation is: Ukraine, Ukraine! What are you going to do to provoke this big Russian man?

Because of the obvious gap in hard power, the result of Ukraine's "hard" Russia is a fiasco, and the time will not exceed a week!

Scenario two: If Ukraine drags the war into a protracted war, then the key to future victory or defeat is unknown!

The first premise of protracted warfare:

1) Zelenskiy cannot be caught or flee Ukraine, after all, he is the facade of the "new" Ukraine after 2014, and the current government cannot make any compromise (except negotiations) or collapse quickly;

2. Foreign aid should be sustained and timely;

3. Ukrainian officials should earnestly do a good job in stirring up emotions.

For the Ukrainian side, no matter how well reasoned Russia is, his current behavior is always an "invasion", if Ukraine cannot be taken in a short period of time, then the anti-Russian sentiment of the Ukrainian people and the international community will become higher and higher in a long confrontation, which is the basis for Ukraine to wage a protracted war against Russia for a long time;

In addition, from the perspective of Westerners, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine has become an established fact, it may be more beneficial for them to let Ukraine and Russia fall into the quagmire of war. So they will spare no effort to support Ukraine in waging a long-term war against Russia, the money is out, you just have to fight;

And now the speed of the Russian army is lagging behind the original planned timetable, the entry of Chechen troops and the development of special operations is favorable evidence, Russia wants a quick decision, after all, the position on this war at home is not so unified, Putin is now facing considerable pressure.

Grievances + Aid + Opposition Strategy = Protracted War!

The exchange of land, time and casualties for victory in the war against Russia is the only way to win in Ukraine now, but the price must also be extremely high!

Scenario three: successful external mediation, Ukraine and Russia make compromises with each other, and stop the strike!

This is also the most likely outcome, although the Russian army is strong, but want to sweep a sovereign country in a short period of time in its military and economic sacrifices will be great, after all, Russia's life in recent years has not been so good, even if it really wins Putin will lose a lot! Now hit this stage, the qi is also out, the domineering spirit is also highlighted, and it is a good choice to see the good, and the key is who will "pave" this step!

In addition, from the perspective of nato and the attitude of the United States, Russia's attempt to prevent NATO's eastward expansion will not play much role by attacking Ukraine alone, such as Finland and Sweden. Can Russia now fight on two or three fronts? Obviously, it is impossible, so part of the purpose of Russia has been achieved so far, it has played a deterrent role in Ukraine, and it can also play a certain degree of containment effect on NATO's eastward expansion.

As for Ukraine? Needless to say, even if no one comes to "pave" this step of negotiations now, Zelenskiy is operating on his own, as long as Russia has the will in this regard, Ukraine will certainly fully cooperate.

Will Ukraine end up with a rapid fall, a protracted war, or a negotiated settlement of the dispute? What do you think of the column positions?