Under the repeated blows of Sino-US trade frictions and the new crown epidemic, the global chip is extremely short, many industries are deeply hit by the lack of cores, suffering, I thought that through the efforts of various companies in the chip industry, 2022 can be slightly alleviated, did not expect Russia and Ukraine to open the film, throw bricks at each other, good wishes are estimated to be in vain again. What about the war between Russia and Ukraine that will affect the supply of chips?
Chip production requires a large number of special gases, these gases have more than 100 kinds, widely used in various production links, is in addition to silicon wafers, the second largest consumables. Ukraine is a large supplier of neon, argon, krypton, krypton and other gases, especially this neon gas. More than 90% of the chips in the United States, 70% of the world's neon gas is produced in Ukraine, and Russia also produces a lot of chips with gas and raw materials, such as Russia's palladium accounts for 40% of the global supply.
Neon tube
Before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of continental neon gas has risen sharply, and the purity of 99.99% of the neon gas has risen from 400 yuan / cubic meter in October 2021 to the most recent 1600 yuan / cubic meter. The reason why it will rise is because the two countries have not been in the arch fire for a day or two, and now the conflict has been brewing for a long time, the market is also prepared, and some of the pressure has been released in advance. When the price of a material rises to a certain extent, there will be many alternative materials or some mines with relatively high mining costs. I think this will definitely have an impact on chip supply, but this is short-term and the impact will not be too deep. But for Ukraine, it is catastrophic, and the industry could be excluded from the supply chain for quite some time. War is like love, dry firewood, a spark is there, but to heal the wounds, it takes a very long time.
A friend asked, why are you so sensitive to this matter? That's because it's been two or three years, and we've suffered from a shortage of chips. We are engaged in an industry that is closely related to chips and other electronic materials, and because of professional habits, it is extremely sensitive to industry trends, just like the energy industry.
A large number of special gases are used in the production of chips
Here, by the way, let's talk about the photovoltaic industry. Due to the turmoil, oil prices have been more than $100 a barrel, which is good for the development of new energy. At the same time, the new capacity of upstream polysilicon materials has begun to be released, and the high price has begun to retrace, which is good for downstream cell and component companies, and many projects that could not be started last year have the conditions to start construction this year. The strong demand has led to a sharp increase in the shipment of photovoltaic inverters, and now the entire industry is facing a shortage of chips, and the inverter order cycle is more than 2 months. Many imported electronic materials from the mainland are imported through Hong Kong, and now the epidemic in Hong Kong is serious, which has affected the circulation of materials, which will further aggravate the tension of materials, and inverters are likely to be very scarce this year, affecting the installed capacity of photovoltaics. This is a big positive for mainland chip companies, after so many years of high-intensity investment, whether it is a power chip or a control chip, has made great progress, many head companies have completed small batches of actual measurement, some have begun to import in large quantities, the next three or five years there are several large chip companies in this area is a high probability event.
The average person may not know that specialty gases are a very large industry, and Linde Group, which has the world's largest market share, has a revenue of hundreds of billions of yuan a year. China has developed steadily in the context of global turmoil, and the mainland special gas industry has experienced a very good golden development period in recent years, and the gap in special gases will soon be filled. The turmoil in the world over the past few years has taught us that the reliability of supply chains is sometimes more important than technological innovation and cost, and it is very fortunate that the mainland has established the world's most complete industrial system in the long-term blockade.