Source: World Wide Web
Editor's note: The situation in Russia and Ukraine is a topic of discussion at the recent daily morning meeting of the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Chinese Min University (CHONGYANG), a new type of think tank. On the second day of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, at 9:30 p.m. on February 25, invited by the Global Network, Wang Wen, executive director of the Chongyang Executive Director of the National People's Congress, executive director of the Sino-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center (Ministry of Education), and researcher of the Financial Center of the Counsellor's Office of the State Council, gave a live broadcast of the "Russian-Ukrainian Conflict" on new media platforms such as Douyin, Station B, and Kuaishou, suggesting that young netizens should not exaggerate the influence of Russia and Ukraine, ridicule Ukrainians, and not encourage the two sides of the strait to start a war. About 700,000 people listened online. The main content system of the live broadcast is sorted out as follows:
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● Ukraine is "the body of a strong man, the fate of a beard", and its history is a country full of sorrow. The greatest tragedy of this country is that it is a national hero who has always oscillated between Europe and Russia, lacking autonomy and strategic awareness. But Ukraine's attitude toward China is generally good, and Chinese netizens do not have to ridicule them, let alone ridicule and ridicule them with passages such as "Ukrainian beauty".
● There are two opportunities for close contact with Putin. Putin is not tall, but he is very imposing, does not shy away from any problem, goes straight, speaks and acts without ambiguity, and is a "global player" who has continuously played, played chess and played against the world's major chess games since the 21st century.
It is impossible for the United States and NATO to send troops in the future. In fact, when Russia and Ukraine fight, the purpose of the United States has been achieved. Through the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe was forced to join the front line of sanctions against Russia, shelving nord Stream 2 operations, stopping the trend that Europe may be too energy dependent on Russia, and allowing Europe to switch to more expensive American natural gas. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has continued to confirm Russia's threat to Europe, NATO has the legitimacy to continue to exist, the US military has profited from arms dealers, continues to sell arms, and military stocks have soared.
● The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the first global live broadcast of the short video network red war since the digital era, not only a small-scale, systematic military war, nor is it just a three-dimensional overall war led by the United States against Russia's politics, diplomacy, finance, trade, currency, public opinion, etc., but also a war in which the whole people participate, information explosion and even live broadcast the whole process.
● The "era of the United States as a superpower" has come to an end. The COVID-19 pandemic represents the end of the U.S. ability to lead the world in national governance; the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan represents the end of the United States' ability to promote democratic ideology abroad; and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict represents the end of the United States' military commitment to its allies and the prestige of major powers.
The scale of China's trade with Russia and Ukraine accounts for less than 3% of China's total foreign trade, and the overall impact is certainly limited. However, some trade products such as energy, metals and agricultural products will be affected, such as Ukraine contributing 29% of maize and 26% of barley to China.
● In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, A shares fell across the board due to non-economic events, reflecting some fluctuations in the market's sentiment. Supporting the "structural bull" argument, due to the adverse adjustment of China's monetary policy and the Fed's policy, there is a "wide credit" underpinning, the systemic risk of China's capital market market is not large, and there is no pessimism about the future market of A-shares.
The United States did not get too caught up in Ukraine. For the United States, China remains the biggest challenge and threat. At this point, China cannot have illusions, and no external force will save and save China.
● In the argument of taking advantage of the opportunity to liberate Taiwan, netizens should talk about it and just say it like this, but it is unwise to really instigate the government. Cross-strait reunification is certainly a necessary trend, but the mainland has given enough sincerity and strategic patience for peace. Afghanistan and Ukraine are both textbooks in Taiwan, and "Taiwan independence" is now trembling.
Global Network: As a Chinese think tank scholar who has exchanged views with many former Ukrainian presidents and former prime ministers, how do you view Ukraine and the Ukrainian crisis?
Wang Wen: I have seen many Ukrainian political circles in some international forums, and I have shook hands and had simple exchanges with former Ukrainian President Yushchenko, and I have also met the former beautiful prime minister Tymoshenko up close. The overall feeling is that they are more pompous and supportive than the former dignitaries of other European countries. This also reflects the complexity of Ukrainian politics.
Ukraine is a sad country, with 45th largest land area and 33rd global population, and the largest country outside Of Russia in Europe. Ukraine once ranked third in the world in grain exports, and its resource endowments ranked among the top in the world. However, Ukraine can be described as "the body of a strong man, the fate of a beard", and has always been attached to the great powers in history, occupied by the Golden Horde, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, Poland, and merged with Tsarist Russia in 1654. In modern times, tragic events such as the Great Famine in Ukraine and the Chernobyl Incident have also occurred, full of sorrow. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the millennium-old Ukrainians were independent, however, the national resources were like a piece of cake being licked by oligarchs in turn, and the lives of the people deteriorated, from the past "European granary" to "European womb" and "European brothel", the number of prostitutes soared, drugs were rampant, and the AIDS epidemic was reported to exceed 1%.
The greatest tragedy of this country is that it is a national hero who has always oscillated between Europe and Russia, lacking autonomy and strategic awareness. Those senior officials are some actor-like politicians, so that the public simply chooses a comedian as president in 2019, which is really helpless and sad. In 2014, Ukraine's original strategic location and port town of Crimea joined Russia in a referendum; then Ukraine's industrial powerhouse Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts held a referendum to declare the establishment of a "People's Republic". Since then, the process of Ukraine's surrender to NATO has accelerated. Under the influence of NATO and the United States, Ukraine has constantly provoked on security issues, and finally Putin counterattacked.
In this regard, some netizens talk about Ukraine in a mocking tone, out of emotion and talk, which is beyond reproach. But you know, what Chinese netizens say, overseas are staring, some also talk about how "Ukrainian beauty" is, as a result, the US media began to use headlines such as "Chinese netizens reveled in the Ukrainian war" to report, and some Ukrainian women who had learned Chinese also spoke out on the Internet. In this regard, I suggest that you need to have a rational mindset.
Global Network: I remember you once said an interesting experience: "Putin stood behind me, I didn't know", how do you think of Putin? What do you think of this Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Wang Wen: There were two opportunities to get close to Putin. One was at the 2015 G20 Leaders' Dinner, where I was invited as a think tank representative, standing behind me and waiting in turn for a handshake of the Turkish prime minister; the other was at the valdai club annual meeting in Sochi, where he talked to academics. Putin is not tall, but very aura, does not shy away from any problem, goes straight, speaks and acts without ambiguity, and is a global player who has been playing, playing chess and playing against the world's big chess game since the 21st century!
In fact, for our close neighbor in the north. Chinese know too little, don't study enough. In the past, many scholars of the older generation spoke Russian; now, there are few young scholars who can speak Russian, and there are fewer and fewer Chinese institutions that can communicate with Russian think tanks. For four consecutive years, I have been invited to the annual meeting of the Valdai Club, which Putin attends every year, and I have also spoken with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. The overall feeling is that Russia's national expansionism is very strong, and its needs for resources, homeland, and security are more sensitive than most ethnic groups, which can also explain the reason why the countries that have been playing games with Russia for more than 300 years, starting with Peter the Great, are very jealous of it, and also reflect the correctness and importance of China's stabilization of Russia, consolidating Sino-Russian relations, and maintaining the stability of the northern border in the past 30 years.
World Wide Web: Will Russia annex Ukraine next? Will it turn into a world war like the events in Sarajevo?
Wang Wen: I don't think so, except for the G7 and a few pro-US countries, most countries are calling for calm and peaceful consultation. For the foreseeable future, the annexation of Ukraine is certainly not a strategic goal for Russia. Although in Putin's view, Ukraine was created by Russia. However, from the perspective of strength, Russia's expansion and economic strength cannot support the protracted nature of the war. War is about to burn money, a day is billions, tens of billions of dollars of cost, Russia's economic strength in recent years has declined rapidly, the total economic volume has even been surpassed by South Korea, China's Guangdong Province. The most likely event is that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not last too long.
Second, do not underestimate the Ukrainian military strength. The hyperbole on the net that the Russian army took Kiev in an hour and a half is exaggerated. Ukraine's military strength is not weak, with the industrial background of the Soviet Union, it is considered a military power in Europe, unlike Poland in 1939 and France in 1941. And Ukraine has 600,000 square kilometers, 45% forest coverage, and strategic depth, not to say that annexation is annexation. If the Russian army continues to press, it is easy to stimulate the National Fighting Spirit of the Ukrainian Cossacks. More than 10 Ukrainian soldiers on Snake Island, as reported on the Internet, would rather be killed than surrender and curse the Russian ship, is an example.
The third is that Russia needs a buffer zone with NATO. Putin's goal is not annexation, but to demilitarize Ukraine and abandon its strategic goal of joining NATO.
Global Network: Will the United States and NATO send troops to save Ukraine in the near future? Some people say that the United States is a bag. What do you think of the U.S. role this time?
Wang Wen: Unless the black swan incident continues, the United States and NATO will never be able to send troops to save Ukraine. The Biden administration has repeatedly stated that the United States will not send troops. Troops who had just withdrawn from Afghanistan last summer and are now trapped again would not have been willing among U.S. servicemen. Moreover, NATO has learned from the Russian army and has had painful memories, and it is impossible for the US military to fight with the Russian army.
However, the online joke about the United States is also too simple. In fact, when Russia and Ukraine fight, the purpose of the United States has been achieved. Through the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe was forced to join the front line of sanctions against Russia, shelving nord Stream 2 operations, stopping the trend that Europe may be too energy dependent on Russia, and allowing Europe to switch to more expensive American natural gas. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to confirm Russia's threat to Europe, NATO has the legitimacy to continue to exist, the US military has profited from arms dealers, continues to sell arms, military stocks have soared, and the US national defense authorization bill has passed nearly 800 billion US dollars in military spending. Therefore, some netizen friends may have underestimated the shrewdness of the United States.
One thing is right, though, that the "era of the United States as a superpower" is completely over. The COVID-19 pandemic represents the end of the U.S. ability to lead the world in national governance; the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan represents the end of the United States' ability to promote democratic ideology abroad; and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict represents the end of the United States' military commitment to its allies and the prestige of major powers.
Global Network: After the Ukraine crisis, what will be the impact on the global landscape?
Wang Wen: I don't quite agree with some of the views that "the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has completely changed the international order." There is no need to expand the global significance of this Russian-Ukrainian crisis. The international order since the end of the Cold War is certainly in the process of disintegrating step by step, but it is not yet complete, at least in the Asia-Pacific region, it is still the international pattern since the end of the Cold War, unless the two sides of the strait are reunified and the Dprk nuclear issue is resolved.
However, this conflict has an impact on the International Order with Europe as the center, and after the division of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999 and the Crimean conflict in 2014, the pace of NATO's eastward expansion will stop, and the wrestling zone, buffer zone and demarcation line between NATO and Russia will be correctly established in Ukraine.
Another interesting phenomenon I would like to say is that inspired by colleagues in the morning meeting of our institute, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the first global live broadcast of the short video network red war since the digital era, not only a small-scale, systematic military war, nor is it just a three-dimensional overall war led by the United States against Russia's politics, diplomacy, finance, trade, currency, public opinion, etc., but also a war of national participation, information explosion and even live broadcast. Almost all the netizens who pay attention have a sense of involvement and rendering, which also determines that the war will not spread and will not deteriorate, and the netizens have become another level of containment force.
Global Network: Russia, Ukraine and China have not bad relations. What impact does the conflict between the two countries have on China's foreign trade and investment?
Wang Wen: The structure, scale and channels of trade and investment between China and Russia and between China and Ukraine will be disturbed to a certain extent under the sudden change in the situation between Russia and Ukraine, but the impact is relatively limited. In 2021, the scale of trade between China and Russia and China and Ukraine was 145.9 billion US dollars and 19.3 billion US dollars respectively, an increase of 35.4 and 31.6% year-on-year, but the scale of China's trade with the two countries accounted for less than 3% of China's total foreign trade, and the overall impact was certainly limited.
However, in some trade products will be affected, such as energy, metals and agricultural products, China's dependence on Russia and Ukraine is relatively high, and primary aluminum, natural gas, and crude oil are all dependent on Russia by about 15-20%. Ukraine contributes 29 percent of its corn and 26 percent of its barley to China. If there is a decrease in orders for Russian and Ukrainian exports to China, exchange rate fluctuations and other events, it is very likely that in the short term, feed prices, and even pork prices, may have a negative impact on some processing and manufacturing on the eastern coast.
The Global Network, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the stock market fell sharply. Some netizens in China said it was as if they were paying for Putin's war. What do you think?
Wang Wen: Some securities companies have reviewed the impact of six wars since 1990, including the Gulf War, the Afghan War, the Iraq War, the Kosovo War, the Syrian Civil War, and the Libyan War, which have affected asset prices, and found several major laws. For example, from the perspective of turbulence, the impact of US stocks is greater than that of Hong Kong stocks and more than A shares. Now it seems that the US stock market shock is still larger. In fact, the dollar will hedge before the war, but it will not be affected for a long time. Gold and oil prices will push up.
From this point of view, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, A shares due to non-economic events appeared to fall across the board, reflecting some fluctuations in the market sentiment. But for the capital market in 2022, I support the "structural bull" statement, due to the adverse adjustment of China's monetary policy and the Fed policy, there is a "wide credit" support, the systemic risk of China's capital market market is not large, and there is no pessimism about the future market of A-shares.
Global Network: Russia and Ukraine are both important countries on the "Belt and Road" node. Will such a conflict have an impact on the Belt and Road Initiative?
Wang Wen: Ukraine was the first country to declare its support for the Belt and Road Initiative. More than 90% of the China-Europe express trains pass through these two countries. China has invested about $10 billion in Ukraine, such as Kiev Metro Line 4, and CNNC has invested $2 billion to upgrade Ukraine's power generation equipment.
Don't underestimate Ukraine, which has a high level of education and a literacy rate of 99.7%, which is much higher than that of China. Ukraine's information technology and aerospace industries have inherent technological advantages. In Chongqing, China has also introduced and set up a Ukrainian aircraft engine research and manufacturing base, and has also invested in Ukrainian horticulture and ports. From the perspective of the Belt and Road Initiative, China hopes for regional stability and peace. The meeting of the leading group for the construction of the "Belt and Road" just held a few days ago also stressed that risk prevention is the top priority of the future construction of the "Belt and Road".
Global Network: Netizens said that this Russian-Ukrainian crisis will give China a new period of strategic opportunities like the "911 incident", and even some netizens have instigated the opportunity to liberate Taiwan by force.
Wang Wen: A few days ago, on the phone call between the Chinese and US foreign ministers, US Secretary of State Blinken did soften his stance on China's Winter Olympics and China's development, and in the short term, the PRESSURE on China by the United States will definitely slow down. But do not assume that the United States will be mired in a Russian-Ukrainian conflict. On the contrary, the United States did not get too caught up in Ukraine. For the United States, China remains the biggest challenge and threat. At this point, China cannot have illusions, and no external force will save and save China.
We must say that the period of strategic opportunity should not be extravagantly expected by the United States to be given, and the period of strategic opportunity has always been created by China itself. As long as China deepens reform, expands opening up, maintains stability and continues to develop, it will always be a strategic opportunity for China.
As for the idea of taking advantage of the opportunity to liberate Taiwan, netizens should talk about it and just say it, but it is unwise to really encourage the government. Cross-strait reunification is certainly a necessary trend, but the mainland has given enough sincerity and strategic patience for peace. Afghanistan and Ukraine are both textbooks in Taiwan, and "Taiwan independence" is now trembling.
More than three years ago, at the Rinsina Forum in India, I met a representative of a Taiwanese think tank serving Tsai Ing-wen. I had advised him to go back and suggest to Ms. Cai that the sooner she talked, the better, and then she might be a war criminal. He nodded privately. In fact, on cross-strait issues, time is on the mainland side. I have confidence in the mainland to minimize the cost of reunification: gradually clear Taiwan's "countries with diplomatic relations" from zero, the process of cross-strait reunification will not die, and more importantly, since reunification, the two sides of the strait can be better integrated, and there will be no incidents similar to the young people in Hong Kong in previous years.