This Ukrainian crisis is essentially the United States from a financial point of view, it wants to raise interest rates, to enter the tightening cycle, domestic liquidity tightening, the need for global capital return to supplement, in order to keep the domestic economy and core U.S. stocks will not collapse.
So what can the United States do while Europe is also following up on interest rate hikes to guide capital backflows? Just use the old fashion, use military hegemony or launch color revolutions to provoke chaos in Europe and intimidate capital to flee Europe.
When the war is chaotic, the rich people are the first to run away, which is basic common sense everywhere.
So why should Ukraine be picked and other countries to crack down on the euro and harvest Europe? The EU has so many partners in global trade, for example, why is it to provoke Ukraine to stimulate Russia and achieve the purpose of intimidating Europe?
This has to start with ukraine's special strategic position.
The EU has energy import dependence, and Russia is the EU's largest energy import cooperation, energy transportation to go through Ukraine, in Ukraine to provoke trouble, is a snake to hit seven inches, while seizing the fate of Europe and Russia.
The United States has not dealt with Russia, Ukraine is in turmoil, the entire European Union and Russia will be affected, it can be described as a perfect means of killing three birds with one stone, one fish and three eating.
Moreover, Ukraine itself is also a fool, from the surface, Ukraine is a country with independent sovereignty, but in essence, the European Union, Russia, the United States and other powers all want to be his father, its internal division has long been divided into different forces, these forces have never stopped in the past confrontation and conflict.
The main reason is that Ukraine has only been a state for more than 30 years, its history is very short, its politicians are very young, and this young country has been part of other countries for the vast majority of the time, not only by Russia, but also by Lithuania, by Poland, and even to this day, Poland has been clamoring to reclaim its territory.
Russia also insists that Ukraine is separated from Russia, was once the product of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and was once the base of heavy industry in the Soviet Union, and its culture is essentially Russian culture, an inherent part of Russia's spiritual civilization, and a blood relative of Russians.
Capitalist countries such as Europe and the United States have already set their sights on the fat meat of Ukraine when they dismembered the Soviet Union, and its resources and special historical background, as well as its key geographical location, have made it the focus of contention among several major powers.
Ukraine has also been brilliant, it was the third largest nuclear-weapon country in the world after the United States and Russia, but unfortunately, the country may be too young to guide the country to a better future because of the lack of mature and far-sighted politicians, but step by step, it has lost its original thick family foundation.
At that time, in order to ensure the independence of sovereignty, Ukraine did not want to be annexed by russia, a polar bear, so it blindly chose to follow the first western power and wanted to join NATO for help.
Since the destruction of its nuclear weapons, Ukraine, which pinned its hopes on the United States, has completely opened the "internal farce" mode. The whole country was divided into pro-Russian and pro-European factions, and the United States also put all kinds of advanced heavy weapons in Ukraine, making it a weapon of war that could open fire on Europe and Russia at any time.
Under the covert manipulation of several major powers, Ukrainian government forces and the Armed Forces of Eastern Ukraine fought until 2015, when the New Minsk Agreement was signed, when the large-scale conflict between the two ceased.
Today, the United States uses this mass murder weapon, just by playing a mouth cannon, encouraging Ukraine to join NATO, and giving Ukraine a bunch of obsolete scrap iron weapons has played a no small chain reaction.
To the surprise of Europe and the United States, and even the world' expectations, is the iron fist of Putin the Great and the determination to solve the Ukrainian problem completely from the root.
The above analysis has made it very clear that Ukraine is already a pawn in the hands of several countries at the same time, and the concentration of the great power game.
Although Russia was coerced to this point by the situation created by the United States, it has the initiative to choose. Now that Russia has chosen to escalate the crisis and directly let the situation get out of control, it is precisely to take advantage of the opportunity of the old United States to directly eat ukraine and cut off the hand of the United States remote control of Ukraine, saving that in the future, the United States will still use this "sharp weapon" to make trouble.
In fact, on February 16, Russia was still announcing the withdrawal of troops, and if the United States and Ukraine no longer arched their fires, there may not be a current situation.
However, just when people were breathing a sigh of relief, on February 17, the Russian Joint Ceasefire Control and Coordination Center announced that the Ukrainian armed forces had used mortar shells and grenades to open fire on the four settlement areas of the "Luhansk People's Republic" in eastern Ukraine.
The strange thing is that when everyone has been condemning Ukraine, why shoot at this sensitive time, why can't it be controlled? Isn't this justification for Russia to go to war?
The Ukrainian government stood up for clarification at the first time and denied the positions of the separatists in the Eastern Region of Ukraine.
Some people want the war to continue to fight, the United States has this possibility, because it has been clamoring for Russia and Ukraine to go to war, Russia has withdrawn in time and came out to ridicule the United States, the US imperialists have no face, and the purpose of harvesting has not been achieved.
There are also bribed speculators in Wudong, as well as pro-American factions in the European Union, and even Russia itself, because the withdrawal of troops is likely to be a cover.
There must have been one family that lied in order to stimulate the existing situation and make excuses for the next military operation.
This is inconclusive at the moment.
Things have evolved to the current situation, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine has indeed gotten somewhat out of control.
According to Russia's current performance, an hour to get Ukraine seems very aggressive, and even some disregard for the current economic situation at home, not worried about a series of sanctions by the European Union and the United States.
In fact, Europe and the United States have always had sanctions against Russia, Russia really does not care too much, and this time Russia seems to have eaten that the Eu union will not fall into the rock, following the United States to increase sanctions and restrictions on it, so it dares to send military forces to want a quick decision.
Russia's bet on this is not without confidence.
On February 20, after the White House announced economic sanctions against Russia, the EU followed up on the same day, but not on the Russian state, but on the four Russians, including freezing assets, banning entry into the EU, etc.
This can be said to be an itchy sanction, the EU has put the heat in place, did not choose to stimulate but left enough "face" for Putin
Before this, the Russian side had realized that the United States and Europe would join forces to attack it, so it was the first to warn the EU that if it dared to impose new sanctions on Russia, especially threatening certain sensitive economic areas, it would have to prepare for a War between Europe and Russia.
This warning is full of gunpowder, and it is clear that if you dare to mess with the United States, we will fight!
The reason why Russia is so strong, on the one hand, is it strong and habitual, fighting the nation, and there is also a Putin the Great who is hard. On the other hand, the main thing is that Russia's GDP in 2020 is only 1.474 trillion US dollars, a contraction of 3.1%, the largest decline in 11 years, lower than China's Guangdong Province, Jiangsu Province, superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, Russia's days are already stretched, can not withstand the eu's new sanctions to add trouble.
But this US sanction is ironclad can not escape, the world hegemony is unreasonable, take the initiative to send shackles to the door so that Russia can not hide, if at this time the EU fell into a well, it is tantamount to directly strangling Russia, then only to threaten the EU with war.
After the European and American economic sanctions were announced, Russia was clear about the BOTTOM card of the European Union - the European Union does not want to take the initiative to provoke trouble.
First of all, the interests of EU member states are not consistent, and no one wants to lead the way.
Moreover, Germany needs Russian natural gas very much at this time, and the fight will have a great impact on the German economy.
Finally, and most critically, the EU certainly does not want to be so blatantly pit by the United States, and it will not be good for the EU to fight.
It's the U.S. that's too aggressive. In any case, the old US sanctions cannot be evaded, so they simply collect some interest from the pro-US forces in Wudong and show Russia's iron-blooded wrists and determination by force.
Therefore, Russia's fierce hand is really unexpected by Europe and the United States, and the United States will certainly not really fight with Russia! Its high domestic inflation is about to boil the economy to rot, and it has nothing to do to run far and wide to find polar bears to fight, and to eat enough to support?
The EU understands that the goal of this matter is itself, the situation has reached this step, the EU will most likely choose to knock down the teeth and swallow blood, the United States plot to harvest, Russia's strong counterattack, to put it bluntly, the European city gate is on fire, the United States and Russia both sides benefit.
So why?
Is the EU afraid of Russian nuclear weapons?
Don't be funny, everyone knows that nuclear weapons will only be a bargaining chip at the negotiating table, even if Putin said: "Russia is gone, what else do you want the world to do?" This sentence is also only a table word to assist the negotiation to obtain more benefits.
This matter is related to the historical origin of several killings between Europe and Russia.
It is precisely because of the past cause that there is the present effect.
Because Russia was surrounded by plains, it believed that the border was not protected by natural dangers and was very unsafe, but in fact, this was a psychological imbalance repeatedly tormented by the old history of aggression and enslavement in the past.
Russia was once attacked by the Mongols, enslaved for hundreds of years, it was difficult to turn around independent, out of security considerations, it took the initiative to launch a war to expand the strategic space, desperately expanded for more than 400 years, the territory expanded 400 times, and in the time of Cacarene II, Russia reached the peak of the most cattle, giving birth to the domineering famous saying:
"If I could live to be 200 years old, the whole of Europe would crawl to my feet!"
Later, Napoleon came to cut Europe, Russia was still a second-rate european goods, and finally the hormonal outbreak won Napoleon, worthy of being a polar bear! After that, Russia became the boss of Europe, and all kinds of tricks were used to make a fortune, until it was defeated by the Anglo-French coalition in the Crimean War.
Then came the First World War, Russia and Germany fought again, but also did not fight, but 20 years later, the Soviet Union made a comeback, the Red Army suppressed the territory, directly swept most of Europe.
The Soviet Union in World War II was even more fierce, and its power penetrated into the heart of Europe, and this history brought great humiliation to some European countries.
This has to do with the "right of the first night" strictly practiced by the Mongols in Russia for hundreds of years, because the implementation of this policy left the blood of the Mongols in every Russian, and there were some "aristocratic privileges" in the consciousness of the enslaved class, forcing them to want to vent and persecute the people they conquered.
In World War II, when the Soviet army invaded Berlin, Germany and occupied West Germany, the command level tacitly and even encouraged the soldiers on the front line to abuse German women, and threatened to "let them use practical actions to achieve their own justice!" ”。
The end result was that millions of "hybrids" were left throughout the occupation. In these matters, the psychological shadow of Western European countries on Russia is difficult to remove, but they are bitter and cannot be said, just like punching themselves in the face.
Later, after Ukraine was separated from the Soviet Union, it was once reduced to the "womb of Europe", and a large part of the reason was because of European revenge!
See?
The war entanglement between Europe and Russia has hardly stopped, although it now looks like trade is frequently related and interests are closely tied, but they have once crushed and tortured each other, saying that they are a pair of life and death enemies.
And when they beat each other, the United States, which was far away in the Americas, hardly participated, and earned itself the world's first power simply by selling war weapons to these fighting countries.
Therefore, the name of this war peddler in the United States is not in vain, people are so prosperous, and they love war in their hearts.
Europe and Russia are completely different mentalities, and their fight has taken themselves from the position of world boss, and the United States has become the boss.
Sandpiper clams compete with each other for profit, forcing themselves to achieve others?
Whoever does this is a fool!
Therefore, the United States arched its fire, and both sides reacted violently, glaring at each other but never moving!
At this point, the whole situation is clear.
The reason why the EU followed the United States in sanctioning Russia, but left its hands everywhere, is simple and clear:
First, in the face of Russia's war warnings, it is necessary to fight back and show the strength of the EUROPEAN Union internationally;
Secondly, at the G7 meeting, Germany and France refused to unite with the United States to deal with China, but they also had to try to restore relations with the United States, in case the United States really turned face with Russia, so they unanimously decided to follow in the footsteps of the United States and "slightly" sanction Russia, which was an account for the United States.
As for what will happen next?
The United States now seems to have won, but in fact it has extremely overdrawn its credibility and demonstrated its weakness. Its cold-blooded performance has given a sobering dose to the small countries that have always believed in and followed it.
According to past history, the stock market will fluctuate because of the war, mainly people's emotional impact, this is short-term, the real thing to look at is the economic fundamentals, the old routine of the United States can not help him solve the problem from the root.
The reason why Russia is so hard is also bearish on the US economic environment.
The EU is indeed stimulated a lot at this time, but as can be seen from the "sanctions" statement of the previous few days, Europe is very perfunctory to the United States and is also watching the wind and the road.
Russia's strong performance will not only not make the EU more dependent on the United States, but will make Europe see the paper tiger disguise of the United States.
Then, the next package of "major" sanctions imposed by Europe on Russia is likely to be just an artistic performance!
One is the insidious boss who plots to harvest himself, bluffs, his own economy is about to be mushed, and he can't take care of himself.
One is a strong polar bear that looks at the door of the house and threatens to warn.
How to balance? Is it to shake hands with the old enemy of the past and make peace, not to blame the past, to turn the dry into a jade, or to calculate with the new account of the fierce polar bear, and let the boss cut flesh and replenish blood by default? Or is it Russia that continues to pretend to fool the former United States and kill each other behind its back? Have you taken advantage of the existing chaos in Europe to break up and reorganize?
How to feel that the possibility of sincere surrender is greater! French President Emmanuel Macron saw the war and said, "This is a turning point in European history!" ”
After sharing, thanks for reading, welcome to pay attention to @A Jing in the audience