Source: Global Times
South: Odessa
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised speech in the early morning of February 24 local time that he decided to launch a special military operation in the Donbass region. CNN immediately said that the Russian Black Sea Fleet's landing operations in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea of Odessa had begun. Although Ukrainian officials have since denied that "Russian troops have landed in Odessa", local residents admit to hearing nearby shelling.
According to reports, Odessa is located in the south of Ukraine, it is not only the fourth largest city in Ukraine, one of the most important ports on the Black Sea coast, but also it is connected to the Lviv Railway in the north, the Transnistrian River in the west, and the sea, water and land networks are connected, which is the transportation hub that radiates throughout Eastern Europe.
Russian-made TOS-1 self-propelled rocket launcher
After the crimean incident broke out in 2014, with the incorporation of the port of Sevastopol into Russia, the Ukrainian navy was forced to move to Odessa, which also became Ukraine's main sea route to receive NATO military assistance, and its military value to Ukraine increased sharply. With the help of NATO, Ukraine has accelerated the military construction of the port of Odessa. Therefore, the Use of large-scale amphibious landings by the Russian army to control Odessa has great strategic value.
East: Kharkiv
CNN said that a huge explosion was heard in Kharkov in eastern Ukraine in the early morning of the 24th. Kharkiv is the second largest city in Ukraine and the capital of Kharkiv Oblast, as well as one of the country's heavy industry, cultural and educational centers.
An anonymous military expert told the Global Times reporter on the 24th that in terms of military operations alone, a quick battle and a quick decision are most beneficial to the Russian army, and Russia has simultaneously carried out military operations in Kharkov and Odessa, Ukraine, so that the Ukrainian army can not take into account both ends, "The action of the Russian army in the direction of Odessa is of great strategic significance, and the Russian army has put up a surprise attack from south to north, controlling the key points of the Dnieper River, and encircling and annihilating the Ukrainian army east of the Dnieper River. This operation is very similar to the "left hook fist" launched by the US 18th Airborne Force from the western desert of Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War. The psychological deterrent effect on the Ukrainian army is extremely large, and the subsequent development of the battlefield situation in this direction may directly affect the outcome of the conflict. ”
North: Kiev
In the early morning of the 24th, several Military Vehicles of the Russian Army entered Ukraine from the border crossing point with Belarus. According to previous reports, the Russian-Belarusian "Alliance Determination-2022" joint military exercise was originally scheduled to end on February 20, but due to the postponement of the exercise, the Russian military participating in the exercise has been staying in Belarus.
It is worth noting that compared with Odessa and Kharkov, where the Russian army launched the offensive, Belarus is much closer to the Ukrainian capital Kiev, and the Russian army from Belarus can directly approach Kiev. Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, said four ballistic missiles fired from Belarus that day flew southwest into Ukraine.
Later in the day, CNN claimed that Russian airborne troops had taken control of Antonov Airport, just 25 miles from downtown Kiev. Russian commanders told CNN that they had a shootout with the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians said they were conducting a counter-offensive to try to retake the airfield.
Comparison of Russian-Ukrainian military strength
As far as the comparison of Russian-Ukrainian military strength is concerned, the outside world generally believes that the Russian military has a clear advantage in both quantity and quality. The Russian Ministry of Defense said on the 24th that it is using precision-guided weapons to destroy the military infrastructure, air defense facilities, military airfields and aviation units of the Ukrainian army.
In terms of air defense capabilities, the Ukrainian army mainly has only a small number of early S-300 long-range air defense systems, and there is a serious lack of modern warning radars. In 2017 and 2021, the Ukrainian army successively obtained the 79K6 radar and its improved 80K6KS1 radar, which can cooperate with the Ukrainian army's "beech-M1" air defense missile. However, the video circulating on social media on the 24th showed that a piece of missile debris with the typical characteristics of the Russian-made KH-31P anti-radiation missile was scattered on the streets of Kiev. The missile is a high-speed anti-radiation missile specifically aimed at air defense radar, indicating that the Russian army has suppressed and destroyed the air defense facilities of the Ukrainian side.
In terms of ground equipment, the Russian army has used at least T-72, T-80 and T-90 series main battle tanks, 2S3 and 2S19 152 mm self-propelled howitzers, Tornado long-range rocket launchers, MT-LB armored vehicles and multi-type infantry fighting vehicles. These include the latest T-90M Proryv-3 main battle tank, which uses a large number of technology from the new generation of T-14 main battle tanks, which is the strongest model of the Russian army's active tanks. In terms of long-range fire support, the Russian army dispatched the Iskander-M tactical ballistic missile and the Iskander-K cruise missile, as well as the Tornado long-range rocket launcher.
The main equipment of the Ukrainian army is "homologous" with the Russian army, with the T-64, T-72 and T-80 series main battle tanks, the 2S7 type 203 mm self-propelled howitzer and the 2S19 type 152 mm self-propelled howitzer, a small number of "tornado" long-range rockets and SS-21 tactical ballistic missiles, but most of them have not been modernized, so they are significantly inferior to similar Russian weapons in main performance.
To withstand the tank floods of Russian ground forces, Ukraine had to rely on simple and easy-to-operate stand-alone anti-tank missiles. Ukraine currently has thousands of Soviet-made anti-tank missiles, but they are lagging behind and their reliability is worrying. The Ukrainian military, which is well aware of this, has had to import a large number of anti-tank missiles from the West in recent years, including the American Javelin and the British NLAW anti-tank missile. The Ukrainian army said that on the 24th, it used "Javelin" missiles in Samui to destroy 15 Russian tanks.
In terms of the navy and air force, the gap between Russia and Ukraine is even more obvious, especially the Ukrainian navy is basically only symbolic. On the 24th, a Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 fighter suspected of "fleeing", broke into Romanian airspace and landed at the country's air base.
Why the Russian army can get the first hand
Although NATO has repeatedly warned that "Russia is about to use force against Ukraine", after the Russian army really moved on the 24th, the outside world suddenly found that NATO was not prepared to deal with the conflict, and even they themselves did not believe that "Russia will attack Ukraine immediately".
In order to carry out the large-scale amphibious landing near Odessa, the Russian Navy deployed almost all of its elite, and the capital ships from the Russian Northern Fleet, the Baltic Fleet and the Pacific Fleet traveled thousands of kilometers to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. At least six of them, large and medium-sized landing ships, entered the Black Sea to support the landing.
Although social media and analysts have been speculating about whether the Russian Navy is preparing for the landing operation in the Black Sea, under the cover of smokescreens announced by the Russian military to hold the "largest maritime exercise", NATO only sent a small number of ships and aircraft to "monitor" and "alert" these Russian warships from all over the world to the Mediterranean Sea, but no further action was taken.
The US "Star-Spangled Banner" said on the 23rd that a senior Pentagon official said that although Russia has gathered strong naval forces in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea in southern Ukraine, "there are more than 10 landing ships in the Black Sea", russian cruisers are not far from the US "Truman" aircraft carrier, but he said, "Russia is obviously only monitoring the 'Truman', which is not uncommon, but that is all, this is the typical intelligence monitoring of the US Navy's activities." ”
Under the paralyzing mentality of NATO, the Russian Navy successfully achieved a large-scale assembly, not only has an overwhelming advantage in the Black Sea, which can implement amphibious landings with almost no external interference, but also the only aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean ("Truman") in the Mediterranean is also closely contained by two Russian cruisers.
A similar situation occurs on the ground battlefield. Russian troops have been increasing their troops to the Ukrainian border areas since the early winter of last year. Although NATO has been warning that "Russia is going to attack Ukraine", it is not really prepared for a Russian attack. The U.S. "Defense News" said on the 24th that until recently, Pentagon officials were still discussing "what to do if the Russian military controls Ukraine's air supremacy and cuts off the air passage for Western military aid to Ukraine." This fully shows that until the Russian offensive, NATO did not realize that the large-scale russian attack on Ukraine was "imminent".
Some analysts believe that in the era of information society and satellite reconnaissance, the possibility of completely hiding military movements and not letting opponents discover them is extremely low. Therefore, strategic deception in the modern sense is not to hide one's actions from the opponent's discovery, the key lies in how to use a series of other actions to make the opponent misjudge. For example, during the Gulf War, the multinational force led by the United States was about to launch a ground attack on Iraq, and the United States made full use of the attention of the outside world to send a powerful amphibious fleet to induce the Iraqi army to strengthen coastal defense, but the mechanized troops of the US military bypassed the strong defense of the Iraqi army and unexpectedly surrounded and annihilated the main force of the Iraqi army from the flank rear with a "left hook fist". Judging from the reaction of the United States and other NATO countries this time, the timing of the Russian military's attack was indeed unexpected by them, and they successfully took the lead. 【Source: Global Times Author: Ma Jun, Fan Wei, Chen Shan】