Dialogue chentao capital He Xiongsong: unmanned distribution is entering the eve of batch commercial applications| exploration 2022

He Xiongsong, Executive General Manager of Chentao Capital

Titanium Media Note: "Exploring the Way 2022" is a year-end planning topic of Titanium Media, inviting TOP entrepreneurial leaders in various industries to review the industry changes and corporate growth in the past year, while talking about new logic and looking forward to 2022. This article is a summary of the industry's past and future prospects in a conversation with He Xiongsong, executive general manager of Chentao Capital, in conversation with the "Exploration of the Way 2022" column of the Titanium Media App.

Capital is always looking for new opportunities.

According to the incomplete statistics of public information, in 2021, the financing of unmanned distribution enterprises was 14 times, an increase of 3.5 times compared with 2020; the amount of financing exceeded 3 billion yuan, an increase of more than 15 times compared with 2020, and many well-known investment institutions including Chentao Capital, Chehejia, CICC Capital, Hillhouse Capital, etc. have layouts.

Among them, Chentao Capital can be regarded as the earliest institution in China to pay attention to specific scenarios of automatic driving. In the second half of 2017, Chentao Capital came to a conclusion within it: automatic driving in the open scenario should really run well, such as the trunk logistics of high-speed carriers, which takes at least 5-8 years, and robotaxi, which carries high-speed people, may take at least 10 years. This far exceeds the investment cycle of general investment institutions, and it is more appropriate for capital to move to specific scenarios.

In 2019, Chentao Capital began to lay out the unmanned delivery track, investing in the unmanned delivery solution provider White Rhino and the chassis supplier Yijia Zhiche respectively. Three years later, the whole track is much more lively than when it first entered, and judging from the two companies invested by Chentao Capital itself, White Rhino and Yijia Zhiche have completed multiple rounds of financing.

In view of the investment logic of the entire capital market in the field of unmanned distribution and the prediction of future development trends, Titanium Media App recently interviewed He Xiongsong, executive general manager of Chentao Capital, and conducted an in-depth discussion on the development status of unmanned distribution.

Scenarios are the key to competition

In the course of this interview, He Xiongsong mentioned the most is a word: scene.

In his view, there is an essential difference between the unmanned vehicle running in the terminal distribution scenario and running in the mine or port, and switching from one scene to another will have a different long-tail scene, and the long-tail scene is the biggest obstacle to the maturity of the entire intelligent driving technology.

"Probably for self-driving companies, the last 99% of the time is spent solving these long-tail scenarios." Therefore, in his opinion, there is no situation in which scenario A can be completely copied to scene B after being done. "After taking it, it only completes the most basic work, and the remaining 99% of the work may have to be restarted."

Therefore, He Xiongsong told Titanium Media App, "We firmly believe that there are barriers between scenes, so if you want to do better than others, you must go deep into the scene and focus on the scene." ”

The basic premise of Chentao Capital's choice of unmanned distribution is that this market is large enough. From the "Research Report on the Terminal Unmanned Distribution Track" released last year, it can be seen that the total market size of express delivery and instant logistics terminal distribution will exceed 300 billion yuan.

In addition to having sufficient market development potential, autonomous driving technology must also be able to generate value in practical applications. Under the momentum of the rapid rise in the volume of express delivery and instant logistics orders, the logistics and distribution industry is facing many difficulties in recruitment, capacity shortage, management difficulties, cost increases and many other problems, and autonomous driving technology is a more effective solution.

In practical applications, according to the different operating environments of unmanned vehicles, it is divided into two types: unmanned distribution in open scenarios and unmanned delivery in closed scenarios. In He Xiongsong's view, whether it is a technical barrier or a commercial malleability perspective, unmanned distribution in open scenarios is more valuable.

First of all, technically, because the people, vehicles and road conditions of the park roads are relatively fixed, the positioning difficulty and complexity of the park closed scene are far lower than that of the open scene; secondly, in terms of business model, the batch replication of the park closed scene is more difficult.

Therefore, He Xiongsong believes, "Good steel should be used on the blade." Especially when resources are limited, focus on making the most valuable parts. Directions with no prospects or poor malleability are not cost-effective. ”

At this stage, in the field of unmanned distribution, Ali, JD.com, Meituan and other Internet giants with their own scenes have also begun to personally go down, using software self-research + hardware procurement + self-operation to promote; enterprises such as Zhixing and Dongfeng Yuexiang, which are endorsed by OEMs and Tier1 enterprises, borrow the basic advantages of the traditional automobile manufacturing industry to cut in.

In the case of Internet giants, OEMs and Tier1 companies competing one after another, does this mean further restriction of development space for startups whose resource advantages are not obvious?

In this regard, He Xiongsong is not worried, he pointed out, "the giant can not monopolize all the B-end demand, there are many other large B-end customers, such as Yonghui, Wumart, Tianhong Supermarket and other companies also have distribution needs, and these B-end customers are difficult to independently develop unmanned delivery vehicles, and are not willing to cooperate with Internet giants in the case of competition, they are natural allies of third-party terminal distribution companies." ”

He believes that the understanding of the scene and the integration of the upstream and downstream resources centered on the scene are the key points of future competition.

Unmanned delivery is entering the eve of commercial applications in batches

From another point of view, Internet giants, OEMs and Tier1 companies have participated in the competition, which also shows the value of the track.

With the vigorous development of the unmanned distribution industry, He Xiongsong's analysis not only depends on the continuous maturity of autonomous driving technology in algorithms, but also the rapid growth of upstream key component suppliers, but also plays a decisive role. At present, the upstream of unmanned distribution is mainly various hardware and parts suppliers, including wire control chassis, lidar, cameras, computing platforms, etc.

Specifically, on the one hand, the product is constantly maturing, chip computing power, sensor performance, chassis stability, etc. have been greatly improved, so that the production capacity of the vehicle and product quality have also improved rapidly; on the other hand, the price is also declining, with the implementation of the mass production plan, large-scale application will further reduce hardware costs; at the same time, the proportion of domestic parts supply is also gradually increasing, wire control chassis, chips, computing platforms, lidar, etc., more and more Chinese companies to join the war.

Therefore, he judged that in the next 3 years, the cost of unmanned delivery vehicles will gradually drop to less than 100,000 yuan, and the unmanned delivery track will usher in an outbreak.

The reason for giving such a judgment, He Xiongsong further explained that one is that technology can support the needs of the scene, and the terminal distribution scene has realized the operation of the security officer; the second is that the business model has been initially formed. From the perspective of the business model, if the security officer is removed, the cost will be very low. Take the riders in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou as an example, the monthly salary may be nearly 10,000 yuan, and now the cost of an unmanned delivery vehicle is more than 100,000 and 200,000, so that the investment payback period is also one or two years. In addition, the right of way is also gradually opening up. Various localities have carried out pilot tests, open demonstration operation areas and some right of way.

From the perspective of technology and economic model, He Xiongsong believes that unmanned distribution has a basis for promotion, but the B-end business is different from the C-end, although it has reached the conditions that can begin batch replication, but it will also undergo a gradual infiltration process.

At the same time, He Xiongsong also pointed out, "If you observe from a single point, due to various reasons such as right of way and cost, there are still some problems in the large-scale rollout of unmanned distribution, but the development of the industry will slowly change from quantitative to qualitative." ”

For example, he explained, taking unmanned delivery vehicles that cannot be delivered upstairs as an example. As long as the scale is expanded, the problem of going upstairs can be solved by distributing relay orders through the capacity outsourcing platform. At the same time, building robots are also developing rapidly, if this type of robot and unmanned delivery vehicles are combined, that is to say, unmanned delivery vehicles are responsible for distribution to the downstairs, and then by the building robot relay upstairs, can also form a real unmanned distribution of the closed loop.

Unmanned distribution is entering the eve of batch commercial applications, He Xiongsong told Titanium Media App that in 2022, Chentao Capital will maintain a follow-up of the upstream and downstream development of the industrial chain on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will also actively pay attention to new investment opportunities in the track.

At the same time, at the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, the concentrated appearance of unmanned delivery vehicles, in He Xiongsong's view, "not only shows that the entire business model and technology have reached the inflection point state before the outbreak, but also will increase everyone's attention and acceptance of unmanned vehicles." ”

It can be said that unmanned distribution has experienced the catalysis of the epidemic, the application of the science and technology Olympics, and the emergence of multiple scenarios such as supermarkets, express delivery, catering, and hotels, which are rapidly entering the public's field of vision and are gradually being widely accepted.

As Chentao Capital once proposed in the "Research Report on the Terminal Unmanned Distribution Track", the terminal unmanned distribution will go through three stages, and now the industry is in the first stage, that is, the period of product polishing and commercialization exploration. At this stage, the solution chamber of commerce starts from simple scenarios and gradually transitions to relatively complex scenarios, from trial operation to normal operation. The next step is to go through the development process from rapid rolling to the formation of a capacity network.

Therefore, in the autonomous driving segmentation track, the unmanned distribution field that has not yet developed mature has entered the fast lane of development, which will still be the focus of the attention and game of giants and capital in 2022. (This article was first published on Titanium Media APP, author/Han Jingxian, editor/Zhang Min)