The situation in Ukraine, which has continued to be tense, has changed abruptly in recent days. Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a special military operation after recognizing the two "republics" established by civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine, the United States and Europe soon introduced new sanctions, Ukraine imposed a state of national emergency and declared diplomatic relations with Russia. Where is the source of this crisis? In the view of the Ukrainian scholar Olga Sukhalyevskaya, the so-called "Euromaidan" revolution, which began in 2014, is still fresh in people's minds.
"A group of militant Ukrainian nationalists and pro-Western politicians want to change their democratically elected government. Eight years on, the results look disappointing. Although the parties to the conflict have different views on Ukrainians as "revolutionary for dignity", it is clear to all that since then, Ukraine, known as the "granary of Europe", has changed beyond recognition.
Independence Square protests in Kiev, Ukraine in 2014
A people's revolution, or a coup d'état orchestrated by the West?
Sukhalyevskaya, a former Ukrainian-born diplomat and jurist, wrote on The Russia Today website on February 22 that in November 2013, then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich abruptly decided to suspend the signing of a free trade agreement with the European Union, the beginning of ukraine's chaos.
According to nikolai Azarov, then-Prime Minister of Ukraine, the cost of Ukraine's transition to European industrial standards was staggering, costing the country between 150 billion and 160 billion euros. Mr. Yanukovych did so in order to become closer to Russia politically and in exchange for a discount of nearly 45 percent on gas prices.
Then-Ukrainian President Yanukovych
This decision immediately generated a strong backlash. On November 21, 2013, Ukrainian blogger Mustafa Nayyem posted an appeal on social networks: "We will meet at 22:30 under the Independence Monument, dress warmly, bring umbrellas, tea, coffee, and friends." It was this call that kicked off the "Plaza de Europe" revolution. However, as the subsequent events confirmed, the evolution from protests to riots in Kiev's Independence Square was not the intention of an opposition blogger and several students. Shortly after the protests began, some political heavyweights stepped in.
Preparations for the launching and organization of protests and the deployment of media, with the active support of the United States and EU member states, began long before Yanukovych decided to postpone signing the agreement with the EU. The most notable media outlet covering the Kiev Square movement was an Internet channel called Hromadske.tv (Public Television), which received a $50,000 grant from the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine in September 2013, with an additional $95,000 from the Dutch Embassy. Alexander Yakimenko, the former head of Ukraine's security services, revealed in a later report that it was at that time that the number of diplomatic mail increased and dollar bills began to fund the square protests without interruption.
Kiev Square protests
The West makes no secret of its interest. Western politicians spoke out in support, including EU diplomats. Victoria Nuland, the state department's then-official representative, not only appeared in Merdeka Square, but also discussed the appointment of Ukraine's future rulers. She later acknowledged that the United States had allocated $5 billion to Ukraine to "promote democracy."
On February 20, 2014, the protests entered a critical phase. On the morning of the same day, gunfire in Independence Square sparked riots, leading to clashes between demonstrators and security forces, with casualties on both sides. There were some reports that snipers from Georgia were involved in shooting protesters. General Tristan Tsitelashvili, a former commander of Avaza, an elite Georgian force, later said one of his former subordinates had participated in the operation with another.
The protests turned into riots
According to Georgian military sources, the order to shoot was given by Brian Christopher Boyenger, an officer in the U.S. Armed Forces. A sniper allegedly involved in the shooting told the BBC about the incident, but western media almost "ignored" their testimony.
On February 22, 2014, the Verkhovada (Parliament) of Ukraine removed Yanukovych from the presidency. Yanukovych then fled to Russia. Pro-Western governments are in power in Ukraine.
Who in the end launched the Wudong War and repression?
Subsequently, the Crimean region decided, by referendum, to secede from Ukraine and merge with Russia. Putin took over Crimea, triggering a round of Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Ukraine's eastern part of the border with Russia is in flames of war, known as the War in Donbas.
The Donbass War refers to the conflict that has taken place in eastern Ukraine since March 2014. In the Donbas region, where the Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast is located, pro-Russian civilian forces fought against the Ukrainian government forces and subsequently proclaimed the establishment of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic".
Pro-Russian civilian forces have taken control of donetsk and Luhansk regions in the Donbass region (red zone)
According to official accounts, the Donbass War began on April 13, 2014, after the "Donetsk People's Republic" declared independence on April 7 of that year, when government forces launched the "anti-terrorist operation". The "Luhansk People's Republic" declared its independence on 27 April of that year. In fact, Ukrainian government forces were deployed to the Donbass region in March 2014, long before the two states declared independence.
Pro-Russian people in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts occupied local government buildings and raised the Russian flag, and the situation continued to be turbulent. Disturbingly, the far-right Azov Battalion joined the government as a paramilitary force, causing a large number of Russian-speaking Civilian Casualties in Donbass.
The far-right Azov battalion fought in the Wudong region
Ukraine's pro-Western government, which had just come to power at the time, authorized the creation of new paramilitary forces from civilians to solve the problem of soldiers, and began to reuse neo-Nazi groups with high violent tendencies, so the Azov battalions that engaged in racism and massacres of civilians were notorious. Despite the call by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights for an investigation, the Ukrainian authorities did not conduct any investigation.
Through the mediation of several European countries, the two sides of the conflict in eastern Ukraine reached ceasefire agreements in September 2014 and February 2015 in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. Large-scale armed conflicts have since been brought under control, but in recent years there have been frequent skirmishes.
"Ukrainianization" and "De-Russification"
Jail sentences on Ukrainian social media for making or liking anti-European remarks are commonplace. A recent example is the famous journalist Miroslva Berdnik being charged by police with "undermining the territorial integrity of Ukraine." The daughter of Oles Berdnik, co-founder of Ukraine's Helsinki group, she is a human rights activist following in her father's footsteps. In a speech to the Knesset, Berndnik outlined the problems of Nazism and anti-Semitism in Ukraine.
In recent years, "de-Russification" has reached an unprecedented level in Ukraine. Khalevskaya said the Ukrainian government ignored the concerns of international organizations, blocked Russian artists from performing in Ukraine, and banned the dissemination of Russian-language books and Russian-language television channels, and the forced "Ukrainianization" continued.
Matilda Bogner, head of the U.N. Human Rights Monitor Mission in Ukraine, noted incidents involving cyberbullying, threats, intimidation and incitement to violence in Ukraine targeted those who oppose "Ukrainianization" or "express positive views about the Russian language or otherwise express perceived as pro-Russian views."
The website of the Ukrainian nationalist hacking group Myrotvorets even collects a database of so-called "pro-Russian" profiles of thousands of european union and U.S. citizens, which is still in operation. Individual blacklisted journalists and dignitaries were eventually assassinated.
Malaysia Airlines MH17 was shot down by a missile over the conflict zone in Ukraine
Experts from an international investigation team splices the wreckage of malaysia airliner MH17
It is worth noting that the conflict in Eastern Ukraine also indirectly led to the downing of Malaysian flights. On 17 July 2014, Malaysia Airlines MH17, flying from Amsterdam, the Netherlands to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile in Ukraine near the Russian border, killing all 280 passengers and 15 crew members on board. The crash site was in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. Ukrainian government forces and civilian armed forces blamed each other, both denying shooting down the passenger plane.
The "legitimacy" and spread of neo-Nazism
Sukhalyvskaya argues that radical far-right ultra-nationalists are actively involved in the protests on Kiev's Independence Square. They inherited the ideology of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) dating back to World War II, and today's Ukraine condones support for Nazism.
Speaking at the United Nations Security Council, Elena Berezhnaya, director of the Institute of Legal Policy and Social Protection, said glorifying Nazis had become a common practice in Ukraine, and that the government funded neo-Nazi organizations under the guise of educating young people about patriotism.
Nazi symbols sprayed on Ukrainian buildings
Neo-Nazism has penetrated deeply into Ukraine's government and law enforcement agencies. A report released by the George Washington Institute for Public Policy said Ukraine's leading military training institution, the Hertman Pietro Saheydakni National Army Academy, has been home to the far-right group Centuria, which is backed by the U.S. government.
The activities of Ukrainian nationalists were not confined to Ukrainian territory, they also actively promoted Nazi ideas in Western countries. According to US media outlet Politico, the Azov battalion, controlled by andriy Biletsky, a former member of the Ukrainian parliament, has established ties with the Nordic resistance movement. The Nordic Resistance was a neo-Nazi organization with official branches in Sweden, Finland and Norway. There is a link between Azov and Robert Rundo, one of the founders of the Rise movement and a white Supremacist in the United States. U.S. Army veteran Craig Lang, who was wanted for shooting a couple in Florida in 2018, has been active on the Udong Front, fighting alongside government forces.
The Azov battalion propagated neo-Nazism
The Soufan Center, a U.S.-based research institute, released a new report focused on global security challenges and foreign policy issues, saying: "Ukraine has become a hub for a broader network of transnational white supremacist extremism, attracting foreign militants from around the world." While jihadists are fighting in places like Syria, white supremacists now have their own battlefield to learn to fight — Ukraine. The conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces has been raging in Ukraine since 2014, attracting fighters from all over the world. Recent studies have shown that about 17,000 foreigners from 50 countries, including the United States, have participated in the conflict. “
The U.S. Congress had proposed that the Azov Battalion, which was incorporated into the Ukrainian National Guard in November 2014, be formally included in the U.S. "List of Foreign Terrorist Organizations," but it was not passed, and the ban on the financing of Azov battalions and other Ukrainian neo-Nazi militias was not enforced.
The militarization of the country has intensified, but the economy has been defeated
Ukraine now spends more than eight times more on its military than it did in 2013, and the country's militarization continues to grow, but its economy is in a deepening recession. In 2021, Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) reached a record $195 billion ($182 billion in 2013), but this figure was offset by inflation.
The consumer price index (CPI) for certain commodities reached 11 percent, the highest record in the past three-and-a-half years. Dmitry Boyarchuk, CEO of the Case Ukraine think tank, noted: "In some areas, this growth is only nominal: the price of our exports is only higher than the price of imports. But in terms of volume, Ukraine's exports have been shrinking. The yield is exactly the same as before. “
At the same time, debt has been growing. In 2013, Ukraine's external debt was $27.9 billion, but it had reached $47.7 billion by the end of 2021.
Ukraine has gradually transformed itself from a relatively developed industrial and agricultural country into a supplier of raw materials. In 2013, machinery manufacturing exports accounted for 18.9% (US$12.9 billion), while in 2017 they fell to 9.9% (US$4.3 billion). The structure of foreign trade in 2021 confirms this trend: Ukraine's largest exports are ferrous metals (US$13.95 billion, an increase of 81.4% over 2020), cereals (US$12.34 billion, an increase of 31.2%), animal and vegetable oils (US$7.04 billion, an increase of 22.5%). In terms of imports, in addition to energy, Ukraine also imported machinery and equipment ($14.2 billion, an increase of 22.9%), chemicals and related industry products ($9.74 billion, an increase of 32.8%).
Ironically, Geoffrey Pyatt, then U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said in 2016: "Ukraine is one of the world's largest producers of agricultural products, and it should be an agricultural superpower." About a quarter of the world's black soil is concentrated in Ukraine, a country once known as the "granary of Europe," where agricultural exports reached $14.5 billion in 2015, accounting for 40 percent of all exports. Now, it is importing more and more food, importing $8 billion worth of food in 2021, a 19% increase over 2020.
At the same time, Ukraine is undergoing deindustrialization. In 2014, the Lviv bus plant was closed; in 2018, the Zaporozhyski automobile factory started bankruptcy proceedings. In 2016-2019, Ukrainian aircraft manufacturer Antonov did not produce a single aircraft. In July 2021, the Nikolayev Shipyard, once an important part of the Soviet shipbuilding industry, was officially closed. State-owned aerospace manufacturer Southern Machinery Manufacturing Plant has barely maintained operations since 2014. In 2013, Ukraine produced 50,449 cars, but by 2021 it would have decreased to 7,002.
Ukrainians are "fleeing en masse", who is to blame?
The standard of living of Ukrainian nationals is also declining, and utility rates are rising, with utility debt now reaching $3 billion. Vladimir Chmeris, a Ukrainian political analyst, explained: "Tariffs will continue to rise. Back in the summer of 2020, the Ukrainian government signed a memorandum with the International Monetary Fund agreeing that gas prices should be determined entirely by the market. Market prices mean higher prices, and it is hoped that more and more loans will at least repay previous loans. “
Now, Ukraine has terminated its gas supply contract with Russia and has had to deal with the energy crisis. Adding to the headache is that the country pays for gas at a price even higher than in the European Union. In October 2022, gas prices across the EUROPEAN Range from €300 to €700, while in Ukraine it was as high as €1,100.
A large number of Ukrainians want to emigrate to other countries
As a result, Ukrainians are leaving the country en masse. In 2020, 601,200 people obtained EU residence permits. According to the Putuka Institute of Demography and Society, the number of migrant workers in Ukraine in 2021 is between 2.5 million and 3 million. And between 2014 and 2021, 1.068 million Ukrainians obtained Russian citizenship. In the first 10 months of 2021, Ukraine's population exodus exceeded 600,000, a new high in the past 11 years.
A survey conducted by the Kiev Institute of Sociology showed that 64.7 percent of Ukrainian citizens believe things are going in the wrong direction. A quarter of Ukrainians and a third of young Ukrainians want to move to other countries. All in all, Sukhalyevskaya said, it would hardly be a victory for the EU.
The confrontation has finally "exploded" after several months, how will the future go?
During the tenure of former US President Trump, although he imposed several rounds of economic sanctions on Russia, he was not interested in NATO's eastward expansion, and even openly questioned the value of NATO's existence. In 2021, biden took a tough stance toward Russia after taking office, supporting Ukraine's accession to NATO and increasing military assistance to Ukraine. In this context, the Ukrainian government has said that it will "recover" Crimea by force and end Russia's "aggression" against Ukraine.
Since November 2021, the Ukrainian and U.S. governments have said Russia has amassed 100,000 soldiers on its border with Ukraine and could "invade" Ukraine. The US government continues to increase its efforts to play up the "Russian threat", claiming that the Russian side will soon "invade" Ukraine.
Satellite imagery shows Russian troops massing on the Russian-Ukrainian border last December
The Russian side has repeatedly denied the "invasion" and stressed that NATO operations threaten Russia's border security. At the end of last year, Russia submitted draft bilateral security assurance agreements to the United States and NATO, which included NATO's halt to eastward expansion and its commitment not to include Ukraine as a member state. In January, the United States and NATO responded in writing to Russia, rejecting core demands such as not absorbing Ukraine and not deploying offensive weapons near Russia's borders.
The United States further provided military assistance to Ukraine and deployed troops to neighboring countries; NATO decided to send additional troops, warships and warplanes to Eastern European member states. Russia launched a series of military exercises. At the same time, European countries are demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops and carrying out shuttle diplomacy to cool the situation.
On 17 February, in the "Luhansk People's Republic" and the "Donetsk People's Republic", pro-Russian civilian forces engaged in artillery battles with Ukrainian government forces and evacuated the local population to Russia in a large-scale concentration. The southern russian state subsequently declared a state of emergency as the influx of refugees from the Eastern Region continued to increase.
On February 21, the Russian Federation Security Conference held a meeting on the situation in eastern Ukraine. Putin then signed orders recognizing the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic", ordering the Russian state armed forces to provide peace guarantees. The United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia subsequently announced new sanctions against Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia has no plans to occupy Ukraine
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy signed a decree on the evening of the 23rd that Ukraine will implement a 30-day state of national emergency nationwide (except donetsk oblast and Luhansk oblast) from 00:00 local time on the 24th. The Ukrainian government said that Russia has recently signed a number of legal documents involving Ukrainian territory, which are "invalid" and Ukraine must respond to Russia.
In the early morning of February 24, Putin made a televised speech saying that he had decided to launch a special military operation in the Donbass region and said that Russia had no plans to occupy Ukraine. In his speech, Putin said that for 30 years Russia has been trying to reach an agreement on NATO's eastward expansion, but "it has been deceived, pressured and blackmailed." He also noted that NATO tanks are moving toward the Russian border.
Zelenskiy said in a speech on the 24th that Ukraine decided to sever diplomatic relations with Russia. In his speech, he said the Ukrainian army was fighting hard in places like Donbass. He called on Ukrainians to defend the country, saying he would release weapons to those who needed them.
How is the Ukraine crisis headed? Experts generally believe that Russia will not change its core security demands because of sanctions, and the struggle between the West and Russia led by the United States may enter a more complex stage in the long escalation of sanctions and counter-sanctions and military confrontations.
Nandu reporter Shi Minglei