"Military Sub-Plane" author: I am Ivan the Great
From February 21, the situation in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine began to take a sharp turn for the worse, first of all, the Ukrainian army increased its artillery preparation and special forces infiltration, according to the statistics of the militia forces in the Donbass region, the Ukrainian army fired more than 2,000 shells throughout the day, and used such as the D-30 type 122 mm howitzer, which was a divisional artillery body-tube gun, and the intensity of the exchange of fire rose rapidly.
Several transmission lines and facilities in Luhansk have been damaged, and local thermal power plants have ceased production. Several water systems in Donetsk have been destroyed, and tens of thousands of people have lost their water capacity.
Yesterday afternoon local time, it is said that a small group of Ukrainian troops infiltrated into the Donetsk region, fled eastward after being discovered by the militia troops, and tried to take refuge in the Russian Rostov Oblast.
According to reports, after the exchange of fire between Russia and Ukraine, 2 Ukrainian BMP combat vehicles crossed the border to try to rescue their accomplices. Subsequently, Russian soldiers destroyed the 2 armored vehicles and killed 5 Ukrainians who had crossed the border illegally.
But interestingly, the video released earlier by Ukrainian special forces following armored vehicles into Russian territory showed a wheeled armored vehicle of the BTR series, but judging from the latest destroyed video, the two destroyed were both BMP series tracked infantry combat vehicles. We don't know the mystery of this.
Subsequently, information about the movement of the Russian army, information about the attitude of the Kremlin began to spread wildly on the Internet, coupled with the various parties in Russia have demanded that President Putin take a stand on the Donbass issue, and the Russian troops of Rostov and Voronezh really leave the station to move to the Ukrainian border area, and people generally speculate that President Putin will make a key decision on the situation in Donbass on the evening of the 21st local time.
Russia recognizes the independence of the two Oblasts and sends troops!
Sure enough, at the night of the 21st local time and at about 3 a.m. Beijing time on the 22nd, President Putin delivered a televised speech to the whole country of Russia, officially announcing that Russia supports the "independence" of the two eastern Ukrainian states, that is, donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and signed a series of military and economic cooperation treaties with the governments of the two states, and the Russian army will be responsible for protecting the security of the two eastern Ukrainian states.
Subsequently, according to the latest report of Xinhua Net, the Russian army troops that were already ready on the border began to make a large-scale move to the Donbass region to formally take over the defense of the Donbas militia, and in the face of the swarming Russian troops, the Ukrainian army was said to be frightened and did not make any effective countermeasures, and even the artillery preparations that were originally being carried out have been temporarily stopped.
Historical causes of the situation in Russia and Ukraine
As Ivan the Great mentioned before, "maybe in one morning wake up, the war in Donbass will re-erupt", at present, the Russian army has really intervened in the situation in Donbass, and the two states of the Donbass region have also been "recognized as independent" by Russia.
Ukraine's non-accession to NATO is Russia's bottom line (Source: Map Emperor)
From the perspective of the flow process of the situation in Donbass, Ivan the Great believes that our previous judgment is relatively accurate, for Russia, in this round of Russia-Ukraine, Russia-Europe, Russia-US issues, Russia's highest goal, and the most difficult to achieve, is that NATO comes forward to give Russia a written guarantee to ensure that NATO's sphere of influence retreats, or never accepts Ukraine into NATO. However, due to various factors, this geopolitical highest goal is undoubtedly unattainable, NATO cannot set limits on itself, and the domestic political factors of the US side also determine that it is absolutely impossible for him to make a strategic contraction to the Russian side on the issue of geopolitical interests, which makes the "staring game" between the United States and Russia around the so-called "NATO eastward expansion" issue, which is unlikely to have results, and it is necessary to have a proper opportunity to complete the gradual downgrading of the conflict.
For the first time, the Russian BMPT Terminator tank support vehicle was transported to the Russian-Ukrainian border.
In fact, Ivan the Great believes that according to Russia's strategic design, if nato can give Russia a written guarantee, it is equivalent to completely abandoning Ukraine on the surface, and the problem of the implementation of the Donbass issue and the Minsk Agreement will be solved, and even the possibility of political upheaval in Ukraine and pro-Russian factions coming to power again is not ruled out;
If the NATO side does not give Russia written assurances, but recognizes the validity of the Minsk Agreement, then the Russian military forces in the border areas will also be enough to directly exert maximum pressure on Ukraine and force the Ukrainian side to implement the Minsk Agreement;
The more complicated situation is that NATO does not give Russia a written guarantee, nor does it give Russia a clear "strategic trip" on the Ukraine issue, that is, it does not clearly express its position on the presence of the Russian army in Eastern Ukraine, and the degree of support for Ukraine is not clear.
Russian soldiers rest in the Belgodro region near the Ukrainian border on February 20
However, judging from the recent statements of the major countries of the West and NATO, NATO has basically played a clear card for the existence of Ukraine, especially the Donbass region, such as France and Germany, which have repeatedly said that the Minsk Agreement must be observed, and further such as the United States and britain, have declared that once there is a war in Ukraine, they will not intervene, and even directly withdraw the personnel from the war zone. In this case, although NATO has been clamoring to impose sanctions on Russia, in fact, the overall situation is favorable to Russia, and the only variable is Ukraine. If the Ukrainian government had been able to judge the situation at that time, temporarily stop shelling the Donbass region, and effectively restrain its front-line troops, in fact, there would still be some opportunities for the overall situation to turn around.
There is no doubt that the Ukrainian government has not seriously assessed the current state of affairs and has not positioned itself. The Ukrainian government has proved to overestimate aid from the West and underestimage Russia's strategic resolve. Ivan the Great believes that the Ukrainian government has made serious strategic misjudgments in this round of situations:
The first is the lack of understanding of the so-called "Russian invasion problem" hyped by the West, and the mistaken belief that it will receive sufficient military assistance from the West to counter the Russian side;
Second, it turned a deaf ear to the repeated statements of many Western countries calling for their implementation of the Minsk Agreement, mistakenly believing that the Donbass problem could be resolved once and for all with Western assistance;
Although the above two points are strategic misjudgments, if the Ukrainian government can temporarily hold still and just continue to stay in the stage of trying to be cool, it should not let the situation take a sharp turn for the worse, so that the Russian troops enter Donbass in a big way.
However, after the West used the Minsk Agreement and in fact sent a détente signal to the Russian side, the Ukrainian government did the opposite, successively making requests to the West to join NATO, and also increasing the exchange of fire on the Donbass front. Not only did it not complete the "de-escalation of the conflict", but it was desperately arched on its own, and the arch was all Russia's two major strategic demands: Ukraine could not join NATO, the Donbass region must maintain the status quo, the arch fire was over, and Ukraine itself did not have the ability to put out the fire. At this point, there is nothing to say, and it turns out that the most direct consequence of the reckless actions of the Ukrainian government is to recruit the Russian army, and as for the assistance of the West and the accession to NATO, the distance is more likely.
The people of Donetsk waved the Russian flag to celebrate, played the Russian national anthem, chanted "Russia" and set off fireworks.
The situation in Eastern Ukraine has changed drastically, and we will witness history
At present, with the Russian army entering the Donbass region, the situation in the eastern region of Ukraine has really reached the node of drastic changes, in fact, according to Ivan the Great's own point of view, he does not think that the Russian army entering the Donbass is the best strategic option:
After all, on the one hand, at least from a legal point of view, the Donbass region is still the territorial scope of Ukraine, which should be recognized by international law and the international community, although the Donbass militia is inextricably linked to the Russian army, but there is still a clear difference between the proxy contact and the direct fate of the Russian army;
On the other hand, with the full entry of Russian troops into Donbass, it also means that the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, at least until nato's power dissipates, has basically come to an end, and there is no room for turning. The relationship between Russia and major Western countries will also face more uncertainties, and there is a relatively large probability that it will usher in further downturns.
When Putin delivered his national speech, he sighed one after another
Judging from President Putin's televised speech this morning, President Putin's view of the current situation in Ukraine, Ivan the Great, is both dissatisfied and helpless:
"Dissatisfaction" is the belief that Russia treated Ukraine well after the collapse of the Soviet Union, while Ukraine was further polarized by the nationalist ideas of the Soviet era. Subsequently, because of the mixing of Western color revolutionary forces, the centrifugal force against Russia became an effective help for NATO countries to take the opportunity to implement strategic layout and carry out active geopolitical strategies around Russia;
"Helpless" is to believe that the state and the status quo of Ukraine are actually not "self-made" by the Ukrainian nation but "constructed". The modern Ukrainian state is actually the result of many strategic decisions made by the leaders of Soviet Russia and the Soviet Union, although this decision may not be a problem at the time, but over time, the hidden dangers in the original decision began to gradually become prominent, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the total eruption was achieved in a "volcanic eruption" posture. The current Ukraine problem is still the "aftermath" of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia is still paying its debts for the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century.
In any case, with the Russian army entering The Donbass, the fight between Russia and NATO, which lasted for about half a year, has finally reached the so-called "drum of war" moment, and the Russian army has taken relatively extreme and can be said to be a table-throwing countermeasure in order to create a safe zone at its doorstep to resist NATO's further eastward expansion. No matter how the subsequent situation develops, Ivan the Great can only say that our generation has really witnessed history.