The Mentality of the State - Talk about the "Russian Dilemma"

Some ideas, not necessarily right, are for reference only.

In the past two days, the events of Ukraine and Russia have attracted the attention of the world, and I think there is an article that must be read, that is, "Putin delivered an important speech on the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the recognition of the independence of the Donbass region (full text)", which is the translation of the Chinese issued by "Russia Today" as follows:

https://weibo.com/ttarticle/p/show?id=2309404739703050994363#_0

Reading this speech several times and reading it several times can clearly expound Russia's current position and ideological roots, as well as the Putin government's current understanding of the world pattern.

Here I say a few points, of course, not complete, in order to get the complete content, I suggest you still look at the original text, I think there are three points that I am impressed.

1: It is believed that modern Ukraine was created by Russia, or more precisely, by Bolsheviks and Communist Russia that created Ukraine. This process began almost after the October Revolution of 1917.

Including the incorporation of the predominantly Ethnic Russian Donbass region into Ukraine;

After the victory of the Great Patriotic War against Nazi Germany in World War II, part of the territory of Poland, Hungary, and Romania was transferred to Ukraine in western Ukraine;

In 1954, Khrushchev included the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine.

2: The Soviet Union, which believed that the Bolsheviks, had made a great mistake in transferring much of Russia's territory to newly established, usually arbitrary administrative units, the Union Republics, and quite a few of them were huge territories that were often unrelated to them. In addition, not only the territory, but also the historical Russian population was transferred.

These republics were not only given the status and form of the formation of the nation-state, but the Constitution of the USSR also provided for their right to secede unconditionally from the USSR, which laid the groundwork for the nationalist destruction of the state in the constituent republics of the USSR.

Ukraine, which broke away from the Soviet Union, although in fact acquired a lot of additional territory during the Soviet period, was both anti-Russian and anti-communist.

3: Attitude towards the West, which holds that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia fulfilled its obligations in its dealings with the West, including withdrawing its troops from Germany and Central and Eastern European countries, and made a great contribution to overcoming the legacy of the Cold War.

But NATO has no guarantees of travel:

In 1990, when discussing German reunification, the United States promised Soviet leaders that NATO's jurisdiction or military presence would not extend an inch eastward. Moreover, the unification of Germany will not lead to the eastward extension of NATO's military organization.

Although they made verbal assurances, they all came to nothing. Later, we were assured that the accession of the Central and Eastern European countries to NATO would only improve relations with Moscow, dispel their fears of a difficult historical legacy and, moreover, create an environment friendly to Russia. But the opposite turned out, with some Eastern European authorities peddling Russophobia, bringing their complexes and stereotypes about the Russian threat to the alliance and insisting on building a collective defense capability primarily against Russia. And this happened in the 1990s and early 2000s, when relations between Russia and the West were even at a high level due to openness and our goodwill. ”

At the same time, the article lists five eastward expansions of NATO:

In 1999, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary joined the Union.

Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2004, Albania and Croatia in 2009, Montenegro in 2017, and North Macedonia in 2020.

Putin's speech summed up the Western motives:

"You don't want to see us as your friends and allies, but why make enemies of us?"

There is only one answer: not because of our political system or for other reasons, they just don't need an independent power like Russia. That's the answer to all your questions. It is the source of traditional U.S. policy toward Russia. ”

From my point of view, a few thoughts,

The first point is that in the Ukraine crisis, the West led by the United States is a strategic offensive side, pressing russia step by step, Russia is actually a strategic defender, Russia's announcement of the recognition of the independence of the two republics in the Donbass region is essentially still a defensive act of trying to prevent NATO's eastward expansion.

This is determined by the huge gap in objective power between the West and Russia.

The five eastward expansions of NATO mentioned in this speech are real events, and the compression of the strategic space facing Russia is indeed there. As mentioned in the speech,

"After the United States broke the Intermediate-Range and Short-Range Missile Treaty, the Pentagon has openly developed a range of ground-based strike weapons, including ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets 5,500 kilometers away. If such systems are deployed in Ukraine, they will be able to strike targets throughout Russia's European territory as well as beyond the Ural Mountains. It takes less than 35 minutes for Tomahawk cruise missiles to reach Moscow, 7-8 minutes for ballistic missiles to be launched from the Kharkov region, and 4-5 minutes for hypersonic strikes. ”

The reason why NATO is pressing forward is also mentioned in Putin's speech, that is, "Russia is not needed as an independent power."

The population, economic strength, and scientific and technological level of NATO countries are currently overwhelming advantages for Russia, and the population of the United States alone is more than twice that of Russia, and the economic strength is more than 10 times that of Russia, and the advantages are still growing.

I have compared the economic growth rate of major countries in the world before, you can see the previous article, the absolute increase in the global economy is still China and the United States the most, Russia and the United States, whether it is the relative economic gap or the absolute economic gap is widening.

Compared with the United States, russia's investment in scientific and technological research and development and industrial development gap continues, in the military and the United States technology gap will become larger and larger, in fact, Russia is now in addition to nuclear submarines, nuclear weapons, missiles and other areas, other aspects are gradually lagging behind.

The West has a total population of eight or nine billion, and as long as the West is hostile to Russia, russia must have no chance of winning in the long-term game, and it is only possible to use various methods to defend.

The second point is that the speech embodies some Russian expansionist ideas that remain in the hearts of Russians even in the current state of decline.

This point of expansionism is not only Russia's European neighbor, we in China are also victims, of course, at present China and Russia have demarcated the border, this matter can only be discussed as history.

The idea revealed in this speech has been legally and voluntarily assigned to the territory of other countries, and if you feel threatened, you can take it back, and so on, there are many ethnic Russians in a large number of Russia's neighboring countries, and some territories have been occupied by Russia in history.

Pushing back to Russia itself, its land area is more than 17 million square kilometers, and many territories have also been seized from other countries in history, and have been the territory of other countries in history, so is it that as long as other countries feel that Russia is not friendly to themselves, they can also make territorial claims against Russia?

If you extend it to the whole world, almost all countries have various territorial accounts with their neighbors.

If all States could use force to occupy the territories of neighbouring States on the basis of their own understanding of their relations and territories, there would be no existing international peace.

If Russia believes in the principle of strength and does not need to pay attention to morality, then there is nothing to complain about NATO's eastward expansion and the space for Russia, because NATO's eastward expansion is also based on the principle of strength, after all, NATO's strength is stronger.

The mainland is moralistic and has always advocated that the use of force should be approved by the United Nations Security Council, rather than that a country can use force to invade, dismember and split the territory of other countries by its own judgment. For example, the United States bombs Serbia, Iraq and other countries without the approval of the United Nations Security Council, and the mainland is opposed.

Therefore, from a moral and justifiable point of view, it is difficult for the mainland to support Russia's position on territory, and the mainland has not yet recognized Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, and it is not expected to recognize the independence of the Donbass region.

The third point is Russia's importance to the mainland, and the risks that exist.

The mainland actually hopes that Russia can share the PRESSURE facing the mainland from the United States, so the Ukraine crisis has attracted the energy and resources of the United States, which is not a bad thing for the mainland. After all, for the mainland, all that is needed is time, and in a few years, the mainland's national strength will rise a lot.

But one risk is that what if the United States changes its policy toward Russia in the next few years and tries to adopt a friendly Russian policy like the Nixon Coalition against the Soviet Union in those years?

I have read an article called "Global Finance: Sino-US Relations Toward Qualitative Change".

It was published in 2010, and I think it is very far-sighted, which describes in detail the logic of the English-speaking countries when they compete for world hegemony. The article is linked below and I think this article is worth taking the time to see.

http://finance.sina.com.cn/review/20101013/17398774055.shtml

This article is very enlightening in many places, here are some of my summaries and reflections from this article:

(1) Hostilities and alliances between States are frequent, and such relations can sometimes be rapidly switched.

Don't look at the current US leadership NATO to russia step by step, but in history, english-speaking countries have united with Russia many times in order to suppress the newly rising hegemony of the European continent.

In the early 19th century, Britain and Russia joined forces against the rise of France during the Napoleonic period,

Britain and the United States and Russia opposed Germany together during World War I, and the Soviet Union opposed Nazis during World War II.

Take World War I as an example, the First World War broke out in 1914, Britain and Russia became allies, and only 10 years ago, Britain supported Japan in the Russo-Japanese War, taking the opposite side of Russia.

If you think of today's Russian-US relations, although the Biden administration is constantly pressing on Russia, it does not mean that there is no united Russia in the United States to restrain the opinions of the main opponent, China.

In previous years, the Trump administration has a tendency to downplay confrontation with Russia and concentrate on attacking China, what if the 2024 election is Trump in power?

2. In the historical game between English-speaking countries and other countries, Russia has played the role of a key power fulcrum.

After Napoleon defeated Austria and Prussia, if he did not invade Tsarist Russia, the outcome of the Anglo-French game was unpredictable; Bismarck laid a solid foundation for German security through the "reinsurance treaty" with Tsarist Russia.

If Kaiser Wilhelm II during World War I and Hitler during World War II had not turned their backs on the successful "Bismarck tradition", then even the combined forces of Britain and the United States in the two world wars would not have been able to shake Germany's position in Europe.

Today Russia is an important source of oil and gas resources in China, the operation of China's economy is highly dependent on oil imports, in addition to the petrochemical industry, the continent's cargo and personnel transportation is highly dependent on road, water transport and aviation, which need to consume oil, while about 70% of the mainland's oil needs to be imported. Not only that, the vast Russian block between China and Europe, the China-Europe express train, the Central Asian oil and gas pipeline are under its influence, and the strategic location is very important.

In addition, in extreme cases, if Russia defects, it may also cause a chain effect, India, Japan, Russia, and the ununified Taiwan region, which can form a relatively complete encirclement of the mainland.

A favorable factor for us is that

From Putin's speech, it can be seen that the Putin government recognizes that the US policy toward Russia is ultimately not to allow Russia to exist as an independent big country, as long as Russia has this understanding, they should be clear that if China fails under the suppression of the West, then they will inevitably become the next target of the West, and Russia's population is unable to stand alone against the West.

For the mainland,

Although the likelihood that Russia and the United States under the Putin administration will work together to confront China is extremely low,

But at least in the future, the possibility of the United States adopting a friendly Russia policy and concentrating its forces on Dealing with China exists, and it is not excluded that Russia will harm China's interests because it wants to obtain certain benefits, thus testing Sino-Russian relations.

This risk will become even higher in the event of a future change of leadership in Russia, after all, Putin is already 70 years old this year.

For the mainland, it has chosen to expand cooperation with Russia and increase the common interests of the two countries, so as to consolidate sino-Russian cooperative relations. Binding the two countries to the same car through common interests is an inevitable choice for the present and the future, which can reduce the risks to the mainland posed by changes in U.S. relations with Russia.

On February 4, 2022, on the first day of Putin's visit to China, Russia and China signed a large order for 100 million tons of oil, an agreement signed by Rosneft and China National Petroleum Corporation to supply 100 million tons of oil to China through Kazakhstan for a period of 10 years.

In 2021, according to the figures of the General Administration of Customs of China, China's imports of Russian oil in 2021 will be 79.64 million tons, oil and gas resources are the main source of Foreign Exchange earned by Russia, and China's huge market has given Russia and the West a lot of confidence in the game, including China's equipment and technology can also help Russia reduce the losses caused by Western economic sanctions.

Finally, I would like to say a few words about the "Russian dilemma" and China's core strengths.

"Russian dilemma" is a word that I came up with, not necessarily accurate, it refers to the Russian people have a dream of a rich and powerful country, the current level of development in Russia, the living standards of the people are far lower than in the West, must be developed, but as Slavs are not recognized by Western countries in terms of race, they are the object of suppression.

But Russia's mere 144 million people, in the face of the Population of eight or nine billion people in the West, whether in the economic, military or technological aspects, there is little hope of victory, suppressed by the West, sanctions and blockade means that there is neither access to advanced technology, nor to a huge market, nor to industrial transfer.

If Russia invests in whatever technology and industry on its own, it will face higher costs, a longer cycle, and because the Russian market accounts for less than 2% of the world, and the benefits are smaller, Russia cannot develop in this case, which is the dilemma facing Russia, which wants to develop under the premise of maintaining its independent status as a great power, but it is not accepted by the West for ethnic reasons, and the West has no hope of winning due to the huge gap in population size.

In contrast, what are China's current core strengths?

Generally we look at territory, population, technology, industrial chain, organizational capabilities.

Territorially, China, the United States, Russia, and even Europe are all big enough to have no great advantage over each other.

Therefore, I think there are three: a huge population of 1.4 billion, a whole industrial chain industrial country and the strong organizational ability of the Chinese Communist Party, and the main shortcoming relative to the West at present is the level of science and technology.

An interesting thing is that due to the mainland's 1.4 billion people + industrial countries in the whole industrial chain, if the mainland's scientific and technological progress makes labor productivity reach the level of the West, then the total economic volume of the mainland will account for 40% of the world, more than the Sum of the West.

It should be noted that population, technology, industry, organizational capacity, territory several key elements of these countries, they are at work with each other, the stronger one of them, the greater the other elements can be greatly stimulated to become stronger.

Population uselessness theory in today's China is still very marketable, in fact, this is the result of China's long-term backwardness, if there is no developed science and technology, industry and social organization capabilities, the huge energy of the population is naturally not played out, in this regard, the population of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria and other countries with a population of hundreds of millions are typical.

However, with the progress of science and technology, the development of industry, and the improvement of organizational ability, the huge population will not only produce a large number of outstanding engineers and scientific and technological personnel, but also the development of high-tech manufacturing and tertiary industries will also produce a large number of middle-class, the world's largest single market with strong consumption power, and the world's largest investment in science and technology and industry, obtaining the world's first economic and military strength, so that the mainland completely get rid of the "Russian dilemma", to live a good life, without considering competition is not OK. After all, this world is that the strong will get more wealth.

The only solution to the "Russian dilemma" is in China, and Russia cannot make a second mistake

It is precisely because China, with its huge size of 1.4 billion people and the entire industrial chain that has been formed, does not exist for China the "Russian dilemma" that has little hope of victory in the West, but on the contrary, the probability of achieving rejuvenation is extremely high, which makes China also become the solution for Russia to achieve its own development.

During the Soviet period, Russia made a strategic mistake, that is, it was dominated by the chauvinism of the great powers, trying to control China and turn us into their satellite countries, which China with strong national pride would rather break and accept.

The Soviet bloc was inferior to the West in terms of science and technology, and China, which had lost a huge population and had already initially industrialized, also lost its advantage over the West in terms of population, and even made China fall to the West, thus laying the foundation for the fate of the cold war.

If the Soviet bloc and China had maintained friendly cooperation at that time, the result might have been a different story.

Today, in the face of Western repression, a gap of five times the population and twenty times the gap in the economy, the only way to break through the predicament is to consolidate the Sino-Russian alliance. The historical issue of the signing of the border agreement between China and Russia has been resolved, and China does not have a strong racial ideology like the West, but is more reliable than the Western countries and the United States, and is more of a world leader who stresses the "royal way" and the "community of human destiny", which can bring great opportunities to Russia's development.

In 2021, the population and economic volume between China and Russia are already 10 times the proportion, China will inevitably re-enter the world's first place in the future, and the total economic volume will reach more than 20 times that of Russia, which has the ability to drive Russia's development.

Can you let go of your self-esteem in China to recognize and accept this fact, can you always soberly realize that Russia cannot be accepted by the West and insist on working closely with China to finally break the "Russian dilemma"?

Instead of being tempted by the Anglo-Saxons, the internal pro-Western forces have raised their heads to disintegrate the Sino-Russian alliance on their own, and have once again made the mistake of losing China, in fact, Russia's own future is also related.