In January of the Year of the Tiger, major car companies handed over the "opening red" results, opening up a new situation of competition this year.
In fact, in the 2021 car market under the lack of core and the shadow of the epidemic, many car companies have shown a depressed mentality, so they have entered a new battlefield, and the sales targets of car companies have been raised very high, and the general increase is more than 20% (refer to "Comparing the sales targets of car companies, "bragging" is the most bullish of TA).
However, from the perspective of sales volume and ranking structure in January, and referring to the sales ranking data of last year, it basically anchors the market performance of mainstream car companies throughout the year. For example, FAW-Volkswagen still maintains the style of a champion, and the competition of the top three independents begins to appear a new pattern, Geely and Changan you catch up with me, leaving the Great Wall behind, while the Great Wall is strongly chased by BYD and Chery, and the autonomous cars usher in a situation of how strong they are.
In the top ten, the inflection point of SAIC Group is still the same, the performance of Volkswagen, GM, GM Wuling is still relatively difficult, last year's performance of SAIC passenger cars, unfortunately did not usher in a breakthrough of 100,000 vehicles in January; Japanese brand Nissan insisted, Toyota is aggressive, showing a new situation of German and Japanese competition; and Honda is not slow, there is no trend of annual sales of millions, is it that Honda is willing to give up the second place of Chinese market brands.
The inertia from last year to January this year will become the epitome of this year's car market to a certain extent. However, recently the commune and a sentence of reviews have learned that some car companies are facing the market mentality in 2022, and the situation that has been passed on is still not very peaceful. The battle between fuel vehicles, hybrids and new energy, the chase between car companies, accompanied by the uncertainty of lack of cores, or the potential price war, will become the variables of the car market in 2022.
So who can find new opportunities in the chaotic world?
Squeeze into the threshold of 100,000 vehicles
If the top ten car companies have set a sales target of breaking one million, then the monthly sales of 100,000 vehicles should become the guaranteed achievement of the top ten car companies.
In December last year, there were 9 car companies selling 100,000 vehicles a month, but in January, which was supposed to be the peak sales season, the number of car companies with monthly sales of 100,000 vehicles was reduced to 6. Of course, there are Factors of the Spring Festival holiday in January, and there are also the impact of the epidemic in some areas, but there are still 9 monthly sales of more than 90,000 vehicles, which can basically determine that in 2022, these nine car companies will become the top ten hot car companies.
Among the top 5 car companies, North and South Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, Geely, Changan and Dongfeng Nissan will become direct competitors. With the Audi brand of FAW-Volkswagen will most likely maintain the championship title, Geely and Changan will also "fight" with SAIC Volkswagen this year, after all, the product strength and momentum of the top two independent brands this year are quite good, which obviously increases the pressure on SAIC Volkswagen.
The share of the top 5 has been divided, as for who drops sixth? Whether it is SAIC-GM or Dongfeng Nissan, it still needs to continue to be observed, and at least the position of at least two mainstream joint venture brands has been loosened a little. The decline of Nissan's mainstream SUV, X-Trail, is bound to become the biggest shortcoming of Nissan in 2022; and the silence of SAIC-GM's Chevrolet and the lack of growth of the Buick brand are the biggest variables of SAIC-GM.
In addition, the three independent brands ranked 8-10 great wall, BYD and Chery will also usher in the year of outbreak this year, the former multi-category will continue to exert force, the momentum is very strong, this inertia trend will continue; the middle one relies on DM-i to become the leader in the current hybrid field, with a great trend of catching up with and surpassing the Japanese hybrid; the latter is in Chery, Jietu, Xingtu and other multi-brand combinations, ushered in a new development opportunity, these three independent brands will become the top ten evergreen trees this year, Promote the share of Chinese brands in the top ten to reach 5, and promote Chinese brands to continue to confront joint venture brands.
Since the reshuffle of The Chinese auto market began in 2018, the pattern of independent brands has been formed, the fringe brands have been delisted, and the rest are those car companies with absolute competitiveness. Since last year, in the face of the aggressive attack of independent brands, there will inevitably be some weak joint venture brands that continue to lose market share, of which Korean and some American brands will become the "hardest hit areas".
Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Yueda Kia's sales fell by 40.1% and 22.8% respectively in January, excluding FAW Toyota's factory closures affected by the epidemic in January, and these two brands are the two car companies with the highest decline in the top 30 of car companies. As for the revival of hyundai Kia in China, it is clear that no better method has been found, and even attempts to engage in global integration "obstinately".
Car companies that do not attach importance to the Chinese market will inevitably fall into endless trouble. But more car companies, such as SAIC-GM and GAC FCA, are weak. Silent Chevrolet, narrow Jeep, these two car companies have not found a good way to meet the needs of the Chinese market, and their parent company has no more energy to cope, and eventually continue to be marginalized.
On the contrary, another American car company, The Ford brand, has become more sophisticated after the "Ford China 2.0" strategy, of which the joint venture Jiangling Ford achieved 54.8% growth in January, and changan Ford's cumulative sales increased by 21.5% year-on-year last year. Although Changan Ford performed poorly in January, the main reason may be to make way for a new generation of Mondeo and a new four-cylinder Focus, and with the launch of new products in the future, Changan Ford is worth looking forward to.
Therefore, rather than saying that car companies have crossed the threshold of 100,000 vehicles just to achieve sales targets, it is better to say that only after crossing this standard line can they truly stand in an invincible position in the Chinese market. Among them, the joint venture brand has formed a brand moat with high-value products, so the rapid march of the independent brand is not only the need for fuel vehicles to progress, but also the electrification is also a weapon to attack the city.
Autonomous warfare
Under the siege of 30 main independent brands, the share of independent brands reached 44.6% in January. The share of 21.4% of the German system plus the 21.1% of the Japanese system basically formed a trend of confrontation with the independent brands. However, it is worth noting that the growth rate of independent brands reached 14.1% in January, while the German system was only 2.4%, and the Japanese system fell by 2.3%.
Since last year, independent brands have shown extremely outstanding competitiveness, in January of the top 30 independent car companies, only 6 car companies sales fell year-on-year, 10 car companies increased by more than 100%. However, among the declining car companies, there are weak brands such as Benten, Beijing Motor, Brilliance Xinyuan and Jiangqi Group, and Geely, Great Wall and Wuling have also suffered Waterloo.
Even so, it still can't stop Geely and Great Wall's sales targets of 1.65 million vehicles and 1.9 million vehicles in 2022. Head independent brands, including Chery Automobile and BYD Automobile, have set relatively high sales targets. The core of achieving this goal lies in the rise of hybrid routes beyond pure electric models.
Last year, led by BYD's DM-i, sales of plug-in hybrid models, including range extenders, increased by 171.2% year-on-year, slightly higher than the 168.6% of pure electric vehicles. Changan's iDD, Geely's Thor Power, Great Wall DHT and Chery's Kunpeng DHT are officially released, which shows that this year will be a big year for hybrid models.
Coupled with the pure electric brand in the traditional car companies to gain a firm foothold, the new forces are also standing on the benchmark line of annual sales of 100,000 vehicles, and the independent new high-end extreme krypton, Zhiji and Avita and other car companies have also entered the delivery stage, and in the future, independent brands will exert their strength in the two markets of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, constantly eroding the market share of joint venture brands.
In terms of electrification, the performance of German car companies is more aggressive than that of Japan. Volkswagen's ID. series, BMW's iX and i series, and Mercedes-Benz's EQ series have all been put into the Chinese market, while the Japanese "Ryota" and Nissan have not yet launched real electrified products. As a result, the Ashkenazi have gained more experience points in the electrification market.
In January, Japan lagged behind the German brands by a small margin, mainly because FAW Toyota suffered the impact of the epidemic at its Tianjin plant in January, which led to the closure of the Corolla model and the suspension of production. So the biggest uncertainty this year is the outbreak of the epidemic, as of now, there have been a number of automobile industry cities sudden epidemic, which will also affect the sales trend of car companies in the future.
However, from the perspective of the general environment, under the strategic requirements of expanding domestic demand, automobile consumption will still be an important point of strength at the national level in 2022, and the necessity of encouraging automobile consumption will rise. Therefore, what each car company should do is to seize the certain point of force in the midst of many uncertainties.