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Since the beginning of 2022, as of February 21, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 4.10%, and the ChiNext Index has fallen by 15.59%, especially in the face of the rapid adjustment of popular track stocks, are you panicked?
Some retail investors are undecided, some institutions are in a dilemma, but there is a fund manager who is "not panicked" in the face of such a market - he is the Southern Fund Luo Shuai. Luo Shuai has taken over the fund at a high level many times, and with a balanced asset allocation method, he has successfully crossed the bull and bear market cycle, and finally won three Golden Bull Fund Manager Awards.
Luo Shuai, who has a particularly rich experience in the "bear market", how will he play in the face of the current market environment? At the beginning of this year, the southern development opportunity was launched for one year, what opportunities did Luo Shuai see?
From Tsinghua Xueba to Taurus celebrities, from 2009 to 2022, this article we review Luo Shuai's investment and research process in the past 14 years, in the face of extreme markets in the face of industry allocation ideas, explore the construction and improvement process of its investment framework, and uncover the mystery of the representative fund - Southern Preferred Growth Net Worth 126 times.
The "bear market experience" forges the ordinary heart of investment
In July 2009, Luo Shuai, who entered the industry with a passion for blood, was at this time the A-share market was at another stage high after 6124 points. Luo Shuai has just begun to work as a researcher, and he has personally experienced the tragedy of the Shanghai index falling from 3477 points to 2649 points in a month, and "fearing the market" has also become a profound imprint of his investment and research work over the years.
Trees that grow out of distress tend to have particularly developed root systems. Luo Shuai, who just entered the company and ushered in a "dream start", knows that he should take root in in-depth research and improve his ability in extreme markets, and only by doing a good job of research can he do a good job in investment management.
At the end of May 2015, after nearly 6 years of internal training in the Southern Fund, Luo Shuai finally completed the transformation of his identity and was promoted to fund manager. Taking over the management of the veteran active equity fund from the hands of the predecessors, Luo Shuai, who was full of preparations, was full of ambition and finally ushered in the opportunity to show his investment ability.
However, at that time, the A-share market reversed again, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell from the highest point of 5178 points to 3373 points within one month. At two more important investment career nodes, Luo Shuai first faced a round of rapid stock market decline, and such a rich "bear market experience" experienced his investment mentality.
"The sun will rise as usual, and the cycle will repeat itself. Crowd sentiment is short-lived, and we can use these madness and pessimism to create excess returns. Recalling the market in 2009 and 2015, Luo Shuai said.
In terms of The Growth of Southern Preferred, which has been in charge for the longest time, after taking over the fund at a high level in June 2015, Luo Shuai immediately realized that "the most important trend at present is to accelerate the concentration of market share to leading enterprises in the industry", and made a position adjustment in time. By the end of the year, Luo Shuai managed the fund's performance of -6.39%, while the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 26.04% in the same period.
Luo Shuai said that he hopes that everyone will have an indifferent mentality when investing in the fund, imagining themselves as sloths.
In the first half year of formal management of fund products, Luo Shuai lived up to expectations and won a very low drawdown for holders in extreme markets.
This experience also gave him a deeper understanding of the margin of safety, so that in the later investment strategy, he paid more and more attention to balanced layout and long-term returns, and gradually became a generation of balanced masters.
The "balanced playing style" is widely praised by the market
"There is no overnight success, only unremitting thinking and self-honing." On the occasion of the 110th anniversary of Tsinghua University, Luo Shuai also expressed his deep feelings about the cultivation and influence of his alma mater, and expressed his gratitude and blessings to his alma mater.
Luo Shuai studied industrial engineering at Tsinghua University, and the most fascinating thing about this major is that the system is continuously optimized and the optimal solution of the objective function is pursued. This has also made Luo Shuai think about how to adjust the investment framework and portfolio to the best state as external constraints change, and how to exchange smaller risks for higher returns.
The first answer Luo Shuai found was to focus on the long-term value of the enterprise.
Starting from the three dimensions of corporate space, certainty and sustainability, we can find high-quality companies with long-term investment value, grow with these enterprises, and be able to overcome short-term market shocks. Such a line of thinking is really easy to use in the A-share market in 2018, and the attributes of leading stocks that can rise and fall have made Luo Shuai tried many times during this period.
But challenges followed. The market is constantly changing, the uncertainty caused by external variables is very large, so large that any track may face long-term uncertainty (in a certain period of time), in addition, the number of stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has risen sharply, and the difficulty of stock selection from the bottom up has gradually increased.
Balanced configuration is the second answer given by Luo Shuai.
In the face of the unilateral decline of the equity market in 2018 and the popularity of track stocks after 2019, Luo Shuai is also constantly thinking about how to deal with such a complex and changeable market. The balanced play he finally gave was both the balance of high-speed growth and long-term sustainability, the balance of inter-industry allocation, and the balance of large and small markets.
Southern Preferred growth since the establishment of the net worth performance
Raising the priority of profit exceeding expectations and the rapid growth of performance is an important step taken by Luo Shuai in the face of growth market. This step also achieved a return of 44.95% in 2019 and 60.19% in 2020.
In the ranking given by Galaxy Securities, it is ranked 58/175 and 76/222. Such results are indeed not as bright as the doubling base that has occurred in the past two years, but don't forget that Luo Shuai is a balanced style fund manager, and his maximum drawdown level is much lower than that of his peers. For holders, it will be more reassuring to hold a fund managed by a balanced celebrity like Luo Shuai.
Performance is never the only measure of a fund's merit.
With the continuous improvement of the "balanced playing style", Luo Shuai's management achievements have been widely praised by the market. Among the heavyweight awards issued by authoritative media, there has never been a lack of Southern Preferred Growth: from 2016 to 2020, the fund has won the Star Fund Award 3 times and the Golden Bull Fund 3 times.
In 2022, seize the opportunity of the boom track
The time comes to 2022, which is the 13th year that Luo Shuai has joined the Southern Fund and the 7th year of managing fund products. After so many years of fighting in the secondary market, Luo Shuai's circle of ability has gradually expanded, and the investment framework has become more and more perfect, and his current management scale has exceeded 30 billion yuan, shouldering the trust of many holders.
For the A-share market investment in 2022, what opportunities will Luo Shuai be more optimistic about?
If we no longer let Luo Shuai take over at a high level, but send a fund at the low level of the stock index, how many surprises will he bring to us? These questions and expectations may be answered in the southern development opportunity one-year hold (A/C code: 014031/014032) that is being released.
Still Luo Shuai's balanced allocation strategy, still pay attention to the high-speed growth of profits exceeding expectations and performance, this time, Luo Shuai focused on the boom track.
When looking forward to the market opportunities in 2022, Luo Shuai did not hesitate to say: "In the one-year dimension, the effect of performance growth (prosperity) stock selection will be very good, and the effect of valuation stock selection will be average. ”
With performance growth as the anchor, Luo Shuai will focus on the layout of the boom track, which is divided into two directions: the continuation of the high boom track, such as green energy-related, intelligent, liquor, pharmaceutical CXO and other industries; the reversal opportunities of the low boom track, such as Power sport, linear drive, some CDMO and other export companies, offline hotels and other industries.
Luo Shuai said: "Overall, we think that 2022 will be a more balanced state, more of a structural differentiation between plates. ”
Surprisingly, the fund that Luo Shuai will take the helm adopts the design form of a one-year closed period, which can better play his balanced allocation advantage in the medium and long term.
What is it like to hold a fund managed by Luo Shuai for a long time? Presumably, the holders of Southern Preferred Growth have a deep feeling: by the end of 2021, the probability of holding Southern Preferred Growth for 1 year to get a positive return is 85%, and the probability of holding a positive return for 2 years is 100%!
There is also a surprising data about the fund of Southern Preferred Growth, Luo Shuai has managed the fund in the past few years, the net value of the fund has been innovated as high as 126 times, drawing a beautiful curve of high up.
Investing requires individual talent as well as team support
A high-spirited net worth curve depicts the fund manager's excellent stock selection ability and asset allocation skills. In the increasingly "volume" public fund industry, fund managers must constantly improve themselves, such as sailing against the current, and retreating if they do not advance.
In his spare time, Luo Shuai likes to climb mountains and likes to read, and he often recommends the good books he reads to his friends. If this Tsinghua scholar majoring in industrial engineering particularly likes philosophy, wouldn't you be surprised?
In fact, the reason why Luo Shuai likes philosophy is that he is also good at looking at the essence through the surface, constantly thinking, and discovering new shores on the basis of the original.
For mountaineering and reading, Luo Shuai is very fond of it; but for investment, Luo Shuai is full of love.
"I love investing, but it's not enough to love, to excel in a field requires focus and practice." Luo Shuai said.
In 2019, Alex Honnold's documentary "Freehand Climbing" was released, and Luo Shuai, who is also a mountaineering enthusiast, expressed his unique views on the sport: "Truly professional freehand rock climbing is planned and teamed, and has made a set of meticulous plans and risk response guidelines in repeated attempts. ”
It is also true that in the more than 100-minute "Freehand Climbing" film, the protagonist climbs the Chieftain Rock for only 10 minutes, and the rest of the time is recorded in his long and meticulous preparation process.
Luo Shuai likens investment to rock climbing, because this work also requires love, focus, and teamwork.
Southern Preferred Growth has a long-term excellent performance performance, which is definitely not the work of fund manager Luo Shuai alone. Behind Luo Shuai, standing is the entire Southern Fund equity investment team, which has more than 30 equity researchers covering Tsinghua, Peking University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Columbia University and other composite discipline backgrounds to provide research results and resources to help fund managers.
The veteran public fund, Southern Fund, currently has assets under management of more than 1.7 trillion yuan and the total number of customers served exceeds 160 million. With its excellent past performance, Southern Fund has won wide market praise: it has won 61 Golden Bull Awards, 55 Star Fund Awards, 48 Golden Fund Awards and 7 "Golden Bull Fund Management Company" awards.
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Risk Warning: Opinions are for reference only and do not represent investment advice. The market is risky and investments need to be cautious.