Health Canada again delayed the release of a covid-19 epidemiological model for another record, releasing data on the COVID-19 outbreak for January 2022 until Friday, February 18. The data reflects the spread and impact of the Global Omiljung variant virus since the end of November, and of course, these data allow the Canadian government to sample what kind of epidemic prevention policies and measures are next? Worthy of our attention! Now Canada's "free truck driver demonstration", the latest Canada has recognized one more vaccine, the release of epidemic prevention measures in various places and the liberalization of measures for entering Canada on February 28. The report estimates that the next policy direction of the Canadian government is clearer. At the same time, we can use these data to understand the current situation of the epidemic in Canada and predict the trend of offline learning in Canada in the autumn. These are definitely the concerns of our Canadian international students and parents! Therefore, please refer to the data of Health Canada's "COVID-19 Epidemiological Model" for January, which I have compiled, and I will also talk about my views later for your reference:
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Epidemiological model of COVID-19 in Canada
【20220218 Edition】
Nationwide,
Although the reported cases of Omiljung have peaked,
But the infection rate is still very high,
Further serious trends are declining,
But the number of cases is still rising
Data as of February 16, 2022.
The trend reflects a 7-day moving average curve (8167 new cases per day on a 7-day average (37530 cases in the same period last month), 7381 hospitalizations (6779 cases in the same period last month), 904 cases of severe illness (883 cases in the same period last month), and 95 deaths (82 cases in the same period last month). The number of hospitalizations and ICU hospitalizations includes the number of hospitalizations and the number of ICU hospitalizations on the same day. Hospitalizations and ICU numbers include data from 9 of Canada's 13 provinces and territories. The expression of the arrow above: The total number of cases underestimated due to changes in testing policies
From the perspective of the curve, the curve fell significantly in January, but the number of hospitalizations, severe illness and death data are still rising, but the proportion of the increase is smaller than the previous waves, especially the severe case rate has not increased significantly with the proportion of new cases. This is probably a recognized feature of Omicron!!
Refer to comparing the curves of the previous month
High laboratory positive rate
Indicates that the disease is nationwide
It is in a period of continuous widespread activity
Data as of February 16, 2022, Source: Detailed test data submitted to PHHC by province and territory. COVID-19 testing includes only the results of a validated laboratory nucleic acid test (such as PCR or nucleic acid sequencing) and does not include the results of a rapid test.
Wastewater monitoring helps with estimation
The scale of sewage discharge and the trend of the spread of Omi kerong
Reported case and wastewater bulletins, data including estimates for Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax.
Black line - number of reported cases
Blue Line – wastewater testing data to help estimate the number of cases that need to be reported (no restrictions on testing)
(Blue line, an average estimate of reported cases corresponding to the average estimate of the reported cases according to the epidemiological model calibrated according to the combination of 5 municipal wastewater signals described above.) The light blue area indicates the 95% coverage interval. The estimates do not take into account the impact of a possible reopening. A significant proportion of cases have not been reported since the end of December 2021. Data are case surveillance data as of 14 February 2022. ）
Although there are signs of peaking in some areas,
But hospitalization rates remain at record highs
The proportion of intensive care units (ICUs) is still relatively low
Blue Line – number of hospitalizations
Yellow line – the number of people with severe diseases
Data as of February 15, 2022
Note: The daily disease case trend line reflects the 7-day moving average. The total number of hospitalizations and ICU hospitalizations includes all those who were hospitalized and ICU hospitalized on the same day.
The six provinces reported above have fallen back at their peak!
Compare the January data
Hospitalization rates remain high across all age groups,
But hospitalization rates for the elderly have declined
Source: Detailed case data submitted to PHC by province and territory. The shaded part represents the time that the data accumulated. The date is the date of the earliest onset of symptoms, the date of collection of laboratory specimens, the date of laboratory results, the date of reporting to the province, region, and the date of reporting to THE PHAC
In January, the highest number of infected people are 20-39 years old on the Green Line. This month is mainly the elderly population.
More than 5.6 million Eligible Canadians
One or more doses of the COVID-19 vaccine are needed
to complete their initial protection
The chart above is the percentage of eligible people (≥5 years old) who have been vaccinated with at least one dose of the vaccine and are fully vaccinated by age group as of February 13, 2022.
Data as of February 13, 2022
Note: Data are from the Canadian COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage Monitoring System. Full vaccination is defined as: a second dose receiving two doses of the vaccine; or have received a single dose of the vaccine; Or only in Québec, after laboratory testing confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, only one dose or two doses of the vaccine were given.
In Canada,
There is still room for improvement in the coverage of vaccine extras,
Especially in adults over the age of 50,
These people have a higher risk of serious consequences
The chart above shows the percentage of people who are eligible for vaccination (≥ 18 years old) who have been fully vaccinated with booster vaccines as of February 13, 2022.
Note: Data are from the Canadian COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage Monitoring System. Full vaccination of an additional dose is defined as receiving an additional dose of the vaccine after completing the primary series. Additional doses are mostly boosters, but also include additional doses that are provided as part of a major series or for travel purposes.
The risk of hospitalization of fully vaccinated people is significantly reduced,
Especially when administering vaccine boosters,
Prevention of serious illness caused by infection with Aomi Kerong
Red line – unvaccinated
Light Blue Line – Full vaccination
Deep Blue Line – full vaccination + vaccine booster
- The two doses of the vaccine initially resulted in a significantly lower hospitalization rate for vaccinated people than for those who had not been vaccinated
- With the extension of time and the optimization of Omi kerong, the protective power of the vaccine is decreasing
- Hospitalization rates increased in both groups prior to the intensive dose program, but hospitalization rates for vaccinated people remained low compared to those who were not vaccinated
- Receiving mRNA enhancers provides better protection than receiving two doses, keeping more people away from hospital and preventing more deaths
And relax public health measures
This may result in a resurgence of cases
However, the impact on hospitalization rates is expected to be low
Left curve: Cases of death
Right curve: About hospitalization rates
Red lines – Easing public health measures can have a substantial impact on transmission
Blue Line – Easing public health measures has a modest impact on transmission
The Black Line – Spreads unchanged
Orange Line – reporting cases based on recent surveillance data (which does not fully cover the number of cases)
Due to limited detection during the grey marker period, surveillance was unable to capture the predicted number of cases
As of February 14, 2022; This is the case of hospitalization on 15 December 2021 and 14 February 2022.
Note: Output from the PHC-McMaster model. The model takes into account the effects of vaccination and the increase in the spread of VOCs (including Delta and Omicron), see annex for detailed assumptions about modelling. The daily hospitalization forecast excludes the ICU.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 continues to evolve,
Sometimes evolving in surprising ways,
We can expect this pattern to continue
Pictured on the left is a genealogy of the omicron's variants, source: Nextstrain.org
Different colors represent different varieties, with lilac being extinct lineages.
- SARS-CoV-2 viruses are constantly evolving, mutating randomly, and can affect the characteristics of the virus, including its transmissibility and severity
- Some mutations make the virus easier to spread, including evading immune protection when it spreads from person to person
- In this way, cumulative mutations can lead to the emergence of new, noteworthy variants that may come from existing ones
- New mutations may also appear suddenly if the accumulated mutations are not discovered by us (for example, if the virus evolves in an immunocompromised human or animal host)
- We need to monitor closely and be prepared for the sudden emergence of new variants
Global monitoring and collaboration
Ongoing and long-term management of COVID-19
Still important
Data as of February 16, 2022
Source: Our Data World
Be cautious and ready to improve the practice of epidemic prevention
We achieve long-term equilibrium
and the best way to sustainably manage COVID-19
Small image at the bottom left: As we return to a greater degree of normalcy, continuing to follow local public health recommendations for changing risks and preventive measures can help control the spread of the virus.
- While a rebound is still possible, there is still room for optimism. We now have broader and more available tools for epidemic prevention and treatment that can minimize severe illness and total deaths while minimizing socio-economic disruption.
- As we move forward, prevention, early detection and response tools will remain critical in the next phase, including vaccines, testing, robust surveillance, treatment, and public health and health care infrastructure.
- For public health and individuals, remaining ready to improve our epidemic prevention status will be our greatest strength as we restore and strengthen our rapid response capabilities for future responses.
With the relaxation of public health measures,
Incidence is expected to pick up in all provinces
Red lines – if public health measures have not been strengthened recently
Blue Line – if current public health measures can effectively reduce transmission
Black Line – No measures were taken
Orange Line – Recent actual monitoring data
It is expected that the number of daily hospitalizations in all provinces may increase
Data as of February 14, 2022; Data were collected on cases hospitalized on 15 December 2021 and 14 February 2022.
Note: Output from the PHC-McMaster model. The model takes into account the effects of vaccination and the increase in the spread of VOCs (including Delta and Omicron), see annex for detailed assumptions about modelling. The red vertical line indicates the time to re-implement/strengthen measures in each province, and the green vertical line indicates the relaxation of public health measures. There are no predictions for SK, as daily data , including hospitalizations of estimated cases — do not have an l-value
The type used to decide on the model
In any case, the previously predicted February pullback has become a fact!
Health Canada's medical model of the epidemiology was only released on February 18, and together with the latest Data from Aumechjong, it is very helpful for us to grasp the latest Canadian outbreak. I have the following points:
1) The fifth wave of the Canadian epidemic brought by Omi kerong has fallen back in February according to the original forecast!
2) The Federal Government of Canada, since the World Health Organization warned Omicron on November 27, immediately adopted a series of entry restriction measures, but with the Christmas holiday in December, the surge in cases brought about by the movement of people is already an established fact, but compared to other Western countries, such as the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada is not much!
3) Since Omicron brought more favorable canadian advocacy for vaccine enhancers. This time the data is more encouraging for everyone to be vaccinated with boosters, and it is the mRNA vaccine to be used as a booster! It is estimated that our students who entered Canada still need to consider receiving a booster vaccine locally, and recently there have been reports in China that after vaccination with Kexing or Sinopharm, it is recommended that the domestic mRNA Cansino vaccine can effectively resist the infection of Aumicroon.
4) This month's model is very long, expressing the decline in the epidemic and the assessment of the impact of the spread of Themi kerong after the release of prevention and control, but also objectively predicts the impact of the spread of the number of variant virus cases of the Omiljung cases on the medical system after the release, such as the number of hospitalizations and deaths!
5) This time the data still does not have the Rt value of Canada nationwide, it is estimated to be meaningless, but if the intuitive data has fallen back in February, objectively speaking, the transmission rate should still be above 1, that is, the spread is still very strong! Our children in Canada need strong protection! Until the Rt value is announced below 1!
6) In terms of data, the largest increase in cases last month was the 20-39 year old group, this month is mainly over 50 years old, severe illness data and death data, also concentrated in the high age group, some people say, may mean that the virus transmission is stronger and the toxicity is decreasing. However, we, the children in Canada, need to understand that our own resistance is the most important thing.
7) Ontario, Canada has opened epidemic prevention restrictions; the Canadian border also opened the entry nucleic acid test on February 28, changing to a rapid test; Canada will no longer issue a Level 3 travel warning for national travel advice on "non-essential travel"; and then many Canadian provinces will cancel "vaccine passports".
8) By all indications, Canada's fifth wave of the epidemic has come to an end.
In short, the current high schools in B.C. and Ontario have been scheduled to gradually open for offline learning in February 2022; immigration canada and the border agency have taken new measures against immigrants last week in 2022: fully vaccinated people entering Canada to cancel nucleic acid testing; Trudeau cited the emergency law to solve the incident of drivers demonstrating in the capital Ottawa; canada's immigration program has increased significantly, indicating that Canada's economy needs an urgent recovery! In fact, in February, students continued to return to Canada for offline study; although there were cases of local students infecting Ami kerong in January, no related cases were received in February.
(Ottawa free truck driver demonstration, and government citation of emergency law to clear the scene)
Attached: Canada approves the first protein new crown vaccine - NUVAXOVID vaccine.
The vaccine can produce neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant. Each dose of the NUVAXOVID vaccine is known to contain 5 micrograms of SARS-CoV-2 (new coronavirus) spike protein and 50 micrograms of Matrix-M adjuvant. Matrix-M adjuvants are "catalysts" used to stimulate the body's immune response to vaccines, and the main raw material is saponins extracted from tree bark. Such a combination can increase the immune response at the same time, without increasing the side reactions.
According to evidence from clinical trials, Health Canada's approved vaccination regimen is two doses at intervals of 21 days. However, NUVAXOVID is not recommended for use as a booster needle at this time. According to Dr. Tan, Canada's chief medical officer, Canada's first batch of NUVAXOVID vaccines will arrive in Canada from a production facility in India in March.
The Montreal vaccine factory, which the Canadian federal government contracted with Novavix last year to produce the NUVAXOVID vaccine, is still awaiting inspection by the Ministry of Health and has not yet started production activities for the vaccine. Canada has earlier pledged 52 million doses of vaccine and has the option of buying another 24 million doses. Unlike previously approved vaccines, the NUVAXOVID vaccine is neither an mRNA vaccine like Pfizer or Modena, nor a vector vaccine (such as AstraZeneca or Johnson & Johnson), but a "recombinant protein vaccine" that uses protein subunits and recombinant viral glycoprotein nanoparticle technology.
Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau visits the Montreal Vaccine Factory
So I do think everything will be fine! You can pay attention to: as the weather in Canada warms up from March to April, the epidemic situation in Canada will further improve! Offline learning in September can be expected!
I wish you all peace and security!!!
(Subject to the latest official announcement, the views do not represent the official meaning, for your reference only)