From 2011 to 2020, between 10 years, suzhou primary school graduates increased by 549,300, and the number of graduates almost doubled. Local popular primary schools have even issued "degree warnings" for several consecutive years!
▲The number of primary school graduates comes from the Suzhou Statistical Yearbook.
The "soaring" number of primary schools coupled with the enthusiasm for school choice directly affects the large-scale growth of the number of popular junior high schools in recent years!
The sudden change in the size of junior high schools requires two aspects to consider for parents who choose a school:
Question 1: The number of people has doubled, is there any reference significance for the good news of the past?
We have compiled a table of changes in the number of students enrolled in the first year of junior high school and the number of students graduating from junior high school in 21.
The first year of 2021 enrollment, corresponding to the 2024 middle school entrance examination, to compare the number of middle school entrance examinations in 21 years can be found:
Gusu District:
In the next three years, the number of popular junior high schools in the region will not change much, and there will even be a contraction in the source of students.
For schools, there will be no large fluctuations in management and teaching, and the overall teaching quality should be relatively stable; but the number of students is reduced, and whether the quality of students can be stabilized needs to be played ❓
Industrial Parks, High-tech Zones:
The increase in the number of school-age students is undoubtedly a challenge for parks and new districts with a high proportion of school-age floating population.
The number of junior high schools in both regions has shown an increasing trend, among which the number of schools in Xifu and The New District and The Middle East Shahu School has changed the most, nearly doubling compared with 21 years.
Three years later, the number of people exceeding the "army of a thousand people" is expected to have the new district experimental Jinshan Road, Xifu, and The First Middle School of the New District, which put forward higher requirements for the teaching and management of the school.
Speaking of this, we may wish to think about it: when choosing a school, we often look at the school ranking according to the past good news, but in the case of doubling the variable of "number of graduates", is it of practical reference significance to choose a school compared with the results of the middle school entrance examination in 20 years or earlier?
Question 2: What is the child's personality and ability to withstand stress?
I believe that many parents agree that the source of students determines the "gold content" of the school.
Therefore, from the perspective of the school, the performance of high-level students must be preserved, which is called the façade! It is best to be able to rush the highest score in the market~
This also means that the school is too large, and most children will receive very little attention!
Many junior high schools, by the third year of junior high school, will pick out the top 100 or top 50 of the grade to set up certain "key classes", and there are many such complaints on the Hanshan Wenzhong. This is not an isolated case, there are districts and schools.
For large schools with excellent past grades, the advantage is actually to raise the height, not to make up for the difference. In other words, the polarization is very serious, and who is the one who is uprooted? It's eugenics.
If you are interested, you can actually turn over the good news of the previous two years, and you will find that a large-scale district group will always emphasize the number of people in each high section, and rarely say the proportion; and the school in a certain district with more new schools and a small volume will always highlight the proportion, average score, and promotion rate in the good news.
In fact, it is not difficult to understand that the small school base is an advantage, and the large tail of the student source is usually large, and it is not difficult to understand the drag on the overall performance, so for a large school, the attention will inevitably be more concentrated on the head students.
This is also the reason why we often say to parents that choosing a school needs to consider the child's personality - can we resist the pressure and become more courageous? Or do you like the "encouraging" students that your teacher pays attention to?
When choosing a junior high school, it is necessary to look at both the general situation (the promotion rate) and the individual differences.
How will the pattern of urban junior high schools change in the next three years?
In the area, the position of the first and second echelon junior high schools is likely to maintain the status quo, and there is no external cause of the variable.
First echelon: Park School + Veteran Five Schools (Zhenhua, Rieter, Jingfan, Pingjiang, Caoqiao)
The second echelon: new school (affiliated to the Academy of Educational Sciences, Canglang Middle School) + Xujiang, 16th Middle School
From the perspective of interregional, the new forces in the park and the new district are gaining momentum and aggressiveness, and gusu needs to be vigilant in the case of little change or even reduction in the scale of student sources, how to ensure that high-quality students do not flow out, and how to attract high-quality students to come in?
Industrial Park:
The quality of the "top eight in the park" in the next three years is not expected to be much different from the current one. However, with the change of the number of middle school entrance examinations in the future, the school position needs to be comprehensively analyzed.
Xinghai nature is still the big brother of the park, under the opening of the new campus in 21 years, the growth rate of new students is still moderate, reflecting a "stable" word.
The pull of the two or three rankings is expected in Star Bay and Jinji Lake. The growth rate of Xingwan is relatively small, but it has also reached 800+ people, and according to parent feedback, jinji Lake ranked second in the 21 years of confusing middle school examination results.
In 21 years, the first Science and Technology Innovation Club of Jinji Lake produced results, with an average score of more than 675 points, and all the students of the club reached the admission score line of Xinghai High School, coupled with the small base, it is not surprising that the score has risen.
From the perspective of the number of people and the growth rate, Jingcheng has a more dominant position than the West Annex. In the past two years, Xinghui, which has a super good reputation among parents, although it has only achieved two results in the middle school examination, it is very eye-catching, and it is very likely that it will catch up later.
For Dongsha Lake and Xinggang, which rank seventh and eighth, the scale will be roughly the same in the next three years, of which the growth rate of Xinggang is very small, and Dongsha Lake is constantly increasing.
The position uncertainty of these two schools is relatively strong, one is an old school but lacks stamina, and the other is more dynamic but the scale is increasing year by year.
Comparing regions, in the face of the challenge of soaring student resources, whether the schools in the park can still maintain the current absolute leading edge, we have to worry a little more.
High-tech Zone:
At present, the public offices that can resist in the district are actually only the new district experiment and the new district one, and it is not expected that there will be much change in recent years, not to mention that with the fame of the new reality, it attracts a large number of eugenics in the big city, and the head student source will not be lacking.
However, both schools are facing the problem of how to ensure the school's teaching resources and teachers after the huge volume. Eugenics is guaranteed, but "the tail is not dropped", do you really care about the tail?
END
In summary, for parents who are still in the middle and lower grades of primary school and want to choose a suitable junior high school, the size of the school in the next three years is an important factor that must be considered.
In fact, whether it is the beginning of the small rise or the beginning of the rise, the root that a good school relies on, or a good source of students, coupled with the excellent resources of the school's teachers and teaching, the results brought out inadvertently amplify the impact of the school.
Parents always use the good news of three years ago to choose the school, but they do not know that their children are the ones who decide the good news three years later, after all, the school choice is the cow baby.