Although it is already 2022, the US government's China policy has not seen obvious signs of improvement, but is rather suspected of intensifying and preparing to launch a new round of anti-China offensive. In the face of such a bad geopolitical environment, Southeast Asian countries that have deep contacts with China and the United States are naturally anxious: taking sides has once again become a big question they must answer.
Just on February 16, Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao published its own research report on this issue, which showed that nearly 60% of respondents chose the United States, but three countries chose China.
According to Lianhe Zaobao, the study, titled "Southeast Asia Posture Report: 2022," was produced by the ASEAN Research Center of the Yusof Isa Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, which is the fourth consecutive year that the institute has launched the report.
According to the report, 30.1% of ASEAN respondents believe that among more than a dozen countries or regional organizations such as the United States, China, Japan, ASEAN and the European Union, the United States is the country with the strongest leadership in regional free trade, a significant increase of 10.4 percentage points over last year; China ranks second with 24.6% support, and also shows a significant increase compared with 13.2% last year.
In terms of "economic influence on Southeast Asia" and "political and strategic influence on Southeast Asia", China ranked first with 76.7% and 54.4% support respectively, and ranked first for the fourth consecutive year;
In terms of "China's expanded economic influence" and "political and strategic influence", 64.4% and 76.4% of respondents expressed concern, respectively, compared with 68% and 86.5% of the previous year.
But when the report suggested that "if you choose a side between China and the United States, you will support that side", 57% of respondents chose the United States, which is basically the same as last year's value.
The report notes that this preference for choice is particularly affected by country-specific effects:
Among the ten ASEAN countries, the respondents with the highest percentage of respondents choosing the United States came from Myanmar, at 92 percent, followed by the Philippines at 83.5 percent and Singapore with 77.9 percent.
In addition, Cambodia, Laos and Brunei overwhelmingly chose to side with China, with Laos having the highest at 81.8%.
The report also pointed out that myanmar and Cambodia have reversed the same thing on this issue compared with last year: in 2021, only 48.1% of Myanmar respondents chose the United States; Cambodian respondents who chose China only 46.2% in 2021, soaring to 81.5% this year.
So what do we think of this informative report?
Our answer is that this almost schizophrenic result is in line with the consistent choice of Southeast Asia.
When talking about the political choices of the countries of the Southeast Asian region, we must first note the special geopolitical position of the Southeast Asian countries:
Southeast Asia is an important part of the eastern edge of the Asian continent extending to Oceania, half of which belongs to the southeastern peninsula directly connected to the Asian continent, and the other half is a series of fragmented island groups between the Asian continent and the Australian continent.
There is no doubt that this semi-continental, half-island geographical structure dooms Southeast Asia to be a fusion zone where the traditional mainland farming civilization led by China and the Western marine capital civilization intersect – it is not only the only way for China, Japan and other traditional Asian countries to go south to contact Western civilization, but also a key outpost for Western civilization to enter East Asia.
Especially after World War II, a new round of oil-based industrial revolution has led to the rise of East Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Chinese mainland, etc. The oil and various raw materials urgently needed by East Asian countries need to enter their countries through the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia, and at least half of the various industrial products produced by the country also need to be transported to Europe, Africa and the Middle East through the Strait of Malacca.
So at best, this geopolitical location has brought unprecedented cultural integration and business opportunities in Southeast Asia.
China, which is close at hand, has laid enough civilization foundation for Southeast Asia in its long history, so that Southeast Asia will not become a black hole of modern civilization like Africa and Latin America;
After entering the Age of Discovery, the exploration of East Asia by Western colonists also began as early as the Strait of Malacca, which made Southeast Asia the first region in East Asia to come into contact with Western civilization and maritime commercial ideas;
After World War II, the successive rise of East Asian countries such as Japan and China has once again caused Southeast Asian countries to suffer from the shadow, making a lot of money in the commercial trade between East Asia and the West, and even creating developed countries with Western standards such as Singapore.
Prosperous Singapore
This special situation naturally created the attitude of Southeast Asians towards the almost schizophrenic view of China and the United States:
In terms of commercial interests, Southeast Asian countries are one of the biggest external beneficiaries of China's reform and opening up and economic rise, and by 2020, ASEAN will become China's largest trading partner and have maintained this dominant position until now. This naturally makes Southeast Asian countries reluctant to china's economic interests;
Politically, the contemporary Southeast Asian countries were basically born in the tide of the global national liberation movement after World War II, which doomed these countries to have strong nationalist tendencies, which led to the Southeast Asian countries are very disgusted with the interference of external powers in their own region and their own internal affairs, whether this is for China or the United States;
However, in terms of values, after long-term contact with the Western world, especially after the great transformation after World War II, the contemporary Southeast Asian countries have basically accepted Western values in their entirety, and psychologically accepted the United States as the leader of the Western world significantly higher than China.
The geographical distance between China and Southeast Asian countries is much closer than that of the United States, and this "great power threat", or "China threat", is far more realistic than that of the United States, and the sovereignty conflict in the South China Sea in recent decades has become the most classic realistic basis for this "China threat".
As a result, Southeast Asian countries are indeed reluctant to trade with China, but when China's rise threatens its own sovereign interests and values, they can clearly only offset China's influence in Southeast Asia by relying politically on the United States, which is the leader of the Western world and the only one with the power to confront China.
The Vice President of the United States visits Vietnam
That's why we see that the Philippines and Singapore, which firmly chose the United States in this report, are typical of this:
The Philippines has historically been a colony of the United States and has long had strong pro-American sentiments; in recent decades, the Philippines has clashed with China over sovereignty in the South China Sea, and under the influence of nationalism and patriotism, the Philippines' dislike of China has reached a historic peak. Even a "real person" like Duterte, who seems to have a good relationship with China, is actually a typical pragmatist and nationalist who is close to China but only looks at China's economic interests and prevents the Philippines from falling prey to the Sino-US dispute.
Singapore is not only a typical developed western capitalist country, but also one of the leaders in Southeast Asia, and it is impossible to accept China's entry into Southeast Asia and replace it from any angle; but in terms of commercial interests, Singapore is also one of the biggest beneficiaries of China's rise, and it cannot bear the commercial losses caused by the Sino-US war. As a result, Singapore has ostensibly been dissuading the United States from respecting China's rise and cautiously speaking of confrontation, but the whole society is on the side of the United States in private.
Joint U.S.-Philippines military exercises
Laos, Cambodia and Brunei are another example:
Brunei is a pocket country that has become rich by oil development in the South China Sea, and it chooses China more simply not to want the Sino-US dispute to spoil its own oil business; Cambodia and Laos are a small number of Southeast Asian countries that have not benefited from contacts with the West, which are closer to China in terms of historical civilization and values, and have been supported by China many times in modern politics, and have a natural good feeling for China's natural existence.
What's more, in 2019, the United States used cambodia's "National Salvation Party" to interfere in Cambodia's internal affairs, causing a general antipathy in Cambodia. After the new crown epidemic, only China vigorously assisted Cambodia, and in contrast, the goodwill of Cambodian society towards China naturally soared.
Prime Minister of Cambodia Prince Hun Sen
A similar situation in Myanmar is exactly the opposite:
The Burmese rebels have been operating in the border area close to China for a long time, which naturally arouses the vigilance of the Burmese ethnic group, the main body of Myanmar, in China's use of rebels to interfere in Myanmar;
In February 2021, the Burmese army brazenly staged a coup d'état to overthrow the democratically elected government by force, placed State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest, and carried out a bloody crackdown on those who resisted. So regardless of whether this democratically elected government is really democratic, and no matter what kind of deal there is with the West, the brutal behavior of the Burmese military has undoubtedly angered the entire Burmese society, and to some extent confirmed the justice of the pro-Western governing philosophy of the democratically elected government and Aung San Suu Kyi - hoping that the United States will intervene in the Burmese civil war has naturally become the most ardent New Year's wish of Burmese society at present.
Aung San Suu Kyi
To sum up, such a huge and "strange" contrast between the people in Southeast Asia in their attitude towards China and the United States is actually completely in line with the actual objective situation in Southeast Asia. And this also reminds us that the Sino-US conflict is far from a simple black-and-white dispute, especially when this conflict is concretely implemented at the level of geopolitical interests, and the complexity of its manifestations requires us to be more cautious - to win the final victory in this conflict, China must win the support of these Southeast Asian countries; and how to win this support is the huge challenge that China must face next.