【Editor's Note】This article is published by my comrade-in-arms, the author "Starry Sky and Thinking", I authorized the Qin'an Strategic Headline Platform to be published exclusively and originally, reproduced from the public account "Policy Debate", there are many wonderful contents, welcome everyone to pay attention.
On February 15, Russia announced that with the completion of military exercises, some troops deployed on the Russian-Ukrainian border would return to their regular positions. After observing the video of the withdrawal of Russian troops, the Western media widely reported the news, and the financial market changed drastically: the stock market rose sharply, and oil prices fell sharply.
Above is a screenshot of the Financial Times
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova therefore said that February 15 would be the "day of the failure of war propaganda" in the West, while Russia "did not cost a single shot."
Has the war alarm been lifted?
Many, like Russian spokeswoman Zakharova, were relieved, arguing that the risk of a hot war in Ukraine had increased.
The debate was preceded by "Why did Biden say that the "Ukrainian" Russian War broke out on the 16th? There are 4 floors under the iceberg! It has been clearly pointed out that the war between the United States and Britain is actually the real mode of war in the world today. Then in "What China needs to be wary of is not the "Russian-American world war", but Biden said: The world is completely different! "Systematically expounds the mode of action of the US-mouth gun war in recent years.
Although Ukraine looks like Russia is the protagonist and Ukraine is a pawn, we all know that it is the United States that plays chess with Russia. Now Russia has made a withdrawal and détente posture; but is this in line with the strategic goal of this mouth-gun war that the United States has spent a lot of energy concocting?
The strategic goal of the United States in concocting the Ukraine crisis can be described as Sima Zhao's heart, creating favorable conditions for the dollar to raise interest rates and harvest the world. For this reason, the Biden administration has three major goals in the Ukraine crisis:
The first is to drive away European capital and return blood to the United States. On February 13, local time, the Ukrainian-Russian 1 media disclosed the news that the Ukrainian billionaire had fled on a chartered plane, indicating that the United States had partially achieved this goal.
The second is to raise interest rates for the Wall Street Fed, which may compensate for the losses caused by the US oil and gas giants. The model of compensation is market share and oil and gas prices. Only after balancing this can the Wall Street Fed and Biden gain enough domestic support.
The continued rise in oil prices in recent days proves this. As the world's most lucrative oil and gas market, the European market has always been coveted by U.S. oil and gas giants. Before the Ukraine crisis heated up, the European market was dominated by Russian and Middle Eastern oil and gas operators. According to statistics, since the Biden authorities significantly escalated the Crisis in Ukraine at the end of 2021, the share of US oil and gas merchants has increased sharply in December and January, and its exports have occupied the first place in the world; the United States liquefied oil and gas ships have sailed to Europe in large numbers.
Russian Gas recently released data showing that Russian gas exports to Europe fell sharply by 25 percent; while European purchases of U.S. gas surged 25 percent. The United States sells European natural gas at a higher cost, transported by LNG ships; Russia transports it by pipeline, so the most bitter is Europe.
This is the underlying logic of the recent desperate efforts of Franco-German diplomacy to cool down.
The third is to suppress the huge bubble of the US stock market price, so that Russia and Ukraine for the crisis that may be triggered by interest rate hikes.
Now, just showing some effect, Russia withdraws troops, you say: is it to withdraw Biden's stage?
The trend of the US Treasury Index and the US Dollar Index can well explain Biden's "egg-egg sadness".
The above chart is the 10-year yield trend of the US Treasury on February 15, and everyone should pay attention to the time point. The debate searched the Russian media that first reported the withdrawal of the Russian army and found that the report was reported at about 12:00 Beijing time on February 15; it spread widely after 15:00 p.m. The soaring 10-year US Treasury yield was almost immediately after the news of the withdrawal of Russian troops was hotly speculated.
Let's look at the daily candlestick chart again.
On February 10, the US CPI index broke the 40-year record with a 7.5% that exceeded expectations, allowing the world to unanimously expect the Fed to raise interest rates. The debate has analyzed in many articles that Biden's progress in creating conditions for the Fed to raise interest rates is far from meeting the requirements, and the probability of a rate hike in March is extremely low.
But inflation of 7.5% has allowed him to sit in the crater; therefore, he is urgently needed to divert his attention and accelerate the creation of conditions for interest rate hikes. So on the day of the release of the US CPI, the Biden authorities dispatched almost the entire government, firing all the fire to concoct and spread fake news that Russia was about to "invade" Ukraine.
Ukrainian billionaires fled to the United States, the Omicron epidemic in the United States authoritative experts also announced that it is "almost over", the Fed interest rate hike conditions seem to be ripe inside and outside, so the dollar index began to rise strongly. As for the US Treasury yields that frightened Biden, they rose on the day of the CPI announcement, and Biden's loud voice advocated the Russian-Ukrainian war, and then stabilized.
But on February 15, as soon as the Russian army withdrew, the dollar index fell; the US Treasury index broke through 2% steadily. This is actually an anomaly in the past US financial routines. The decline in the dollar index symbolizes lower expectations of fed rate hikes; the rise in the 10-year yield of US Treasuries symbolizes higher Fed interest rate hikes.
This paradox is actually a true portrayal of Biden's dilemma.
No interest rate hikes, high inflation, the United States people are increasingly resentful; interest rates, the US debt exceeded 30 trillion, a number of projects and bills still need to continue to release water. Therefore, the Biden authorities do not want the Russian army to withdraw. The US rumor newspaper CNN understands the intention very timely, and its report is: Ukraine is suspicious!
In fact, what Ukraine doubts, but What Biden needs Ukraine to continue to be nervous about. Therefore, the risk of the withdrawal of Ukrainian Russia and the outbreak of a hot war in Ukraine has not decreased, but has risen sharply. Because in order to keep the Russian army, the Biden authorities may use the Azov battalion, an army of Ukrainian extremist fascists under their control, and mercenaries from the US private army, to create violence in eastern Ukraine and even cross the border, stimulating a strong Russian response.
This is the previous article "Why did Biden say that the "Ukrainian" Russian War broke out on the 16th? There are 4 floors under the iceberg! Iceberg 4th floor.