Wen | node finance zero degree
To say that Gülen has been too hot recently, the news continues, a moment of self-purchase fund, a moment of scale more than Zhang Kun, a moment of being rumored to have been redeemed 40 billion, not long ago won the "Golden Bull Award", positive and negative, hot search continuously. The latest news, Gülen's fund has been "delisted" by Alipay Gold's weekly sales list, according to Ant Wealth's response, because investors have begun to allocate more stable fixed income + products.
Time has changed, today we talk about Gülen's "big defeat", may be yesterday Gülen's "big victory", everything is a product of the stage, I hope that readers do not have to be overly obsessed with or completely deny a certain achievement, because winning or losing is a common thing, "no Tai" is also based on the environment of mutual transformation. The factor that made Gülen win is now the driving force behind Gülen's defeat.
Standing at this point in time, we talk about Gülen's "great defeat." Because in the past year, Gülen's fund has fallen a bit miserably.
Before analyzing Gülen's returns and investment style, it is necessary to look at the "vignettes" of the fund's regular reports.
01 Are the Fund's periodic reports "refined" or "perfunctory"?
Among the many fund managers we have analyzed, Gülen's fund disclosed investment strategies and operational analysis is the most "concise" or "perfunctory". (Please note: The following is not simply "copying" or "pasting", but is taken from the various medical and health reports in Central Europe.) ）
Neither did it explain the changes in the net value of the fund during the reporting period, and the judgment of the situation was also very general compared to other fund reports, and we looked at the fourth quarterly report of 2021 only a few lines more than the first, second and third quarterly reports, and the more words were precisely "the manager's brief outlook on the macroeconomic, securities market and industry trends in the 2020 annual report".
It can be said that the funds have fallen by nearly 40%, but from the report, I did not see the attitude of the fund manager, neither analysis nor more detailed explanation of the investment strategy, nor reflection, but repetition... Again, this point is really fascinating, I don't know if the "goddess" is high cold or "top stream" is really too busy?
02 -40% one-year return, -40% dynamic drawdown
Coming to Gülen's masterpiece, the Discussion Forum on Medical and Health in Central Europe, there is mourning and chaos, there are sunburned income, there are "depowdering and stepping back", and of course, there are also iron powder for maintenance.
To say that the voice is noisy, the noise is many, and the "medicine goddess" in the mouth of the basic people has become "big mother", and it cannot all be blamed on the fact that the basic people are not calm. We look at the returns of Gülen Fund, taking the Star Fund Award and the Golden Bull Fund as an example, the net value of the fund in the past year has "fallen and fallen", a thousand miles, the return rate is -37.42% (as of 2022/2/10), which is 15 points more than the CSI 300 (-20.11%) and the performance benchmark (-23.25%) in the same period.
Looking at the maximum retracement has reached a historical peak of -40.54%, since the end of June last year, the Central European medical health that has just recovered the lost ground has been attacked again, the situation has taken a sharp turn, almost no opportunity to reduce the position of the base people, and the basic people's pain index can be imagined.
Although the fund's historically high return (tenure return of 172.63%) has maintained its annualized return at a high level of 20.52%, ranking 40/433, which is still among the best in the industry, this does not alleviate the pain index of most basic citizens. In the past year, the fund's downside risk is 26.46% and the Sharpe ratio is -1.1938, far exceeding the 16.86% and -0.7237 of the same kind.
So how did Gülen's defeat in the past year come about?
03 Extreme and stable industry configuration
The reason why Gülen is called the "goddess of medicine" is that he really took "medicine" to death. We have analyzed so many fund managers before, Gülen can be regarded as the "most dedicated" industry allocation. It can be seen that as of June 30, 2021, Gülen's position in the healthcare sector accounted for 98.88% of the stock position, and it has risen since the fourth quarter of 2017.
This extreme and stable industry configuration, when the market environment is good, when the pharmaceutical track is "just in time", it will definitely bring the ultimate benefits to Gülen, and Gülen's past growth into a "goddess" must be inseparable from this investment style.
However, when the market environment is not good, when the pharmaceutical track is hit hard, this style is easy to maximize the negative impact, in the analysis of its heavy stocks later, it can be seen that although it tries to achieve the purpose of balanced allocation and risk diversification by dispersing individual stocks to the various subdivisions of the pharmaceutical sector - CRO/COM, innovative drugs, medical services, medical devices, vaccines, etc. But "there is no end to the eggs under the nest", when the entire pharmaceutical sector is in the mud, then even if the market does not have an overall systemic risk, Gülen himself will fall into systemic risk, and the trend of the past six months proves this.
04 The scale is too large and continues to subscribe
Corresponding to the net value of Gülen Fund, its management scale has risen steadily, and the total scale has exceeded 110 billion, which seems contradictory but not contradictory. With the continuous development of the financial investment market and the deepening of investor education, today's basic people have long been not the early thinking, no longer chasing the rise and killing the fall, and the backhand is more and more falling. They all want to lay out on the left, read the bottom in advance, or simply play the fixed shot.
But what is the premise of the bottom? The premise is that you have to have a rough judgment on the bottom, which is based on your sufficient understanding of the product, the market, the pharmaceutical industry, and the heavy stocks, and you have to have a basic expectation of the trend and performance inflection point, on this basis, it may be considered to be the bottom.
What is the premise of the pitch? First of all, you have to determine your expected investment cycle, and in this investment cycle your track and the ultimate direction of the target are good, and then your investment may make sense. Although the pharmaceutical industry has long slopes and thick snow, it is an eternal sunrise industry, but this "forever" is only forever in the general direction, and in the process of snowballing, there will be many twists and turns. A good track and a good company must also match the valuation level and investment cycle to complement each other. And it may be difficult to make effective judgments on the basis of the basics themselves.
Among them, the size of the CEIBS health fund has reached 77.505 billion, and we know that the excessive size of the fund may make the fund manager lose the flexibility of the operation of the heavy position, because its holding of each stock is large and may not be effectively operated. The size of the 77.5 billion fund has obviously severely constrained the operational space of Gülen's investments.
Whether it is to help the people to make a judgment on the stop loss or to control the size of the fund, suspend subscription or dividend compression, Gülen seems to have taken some measures long ago. Is it to follow the swelling management fees?
05 Concentrated shareholding, heavy position holding group stock
Gülen's heavy stocks are distributed in cro/COM, innovative drugs, medical services, medical devices, vaccines and several medical segments, trying to balance the risks, but it is difficult to resist the risks of the entire industry, as explained above. Among them, the CRO/COM Gülen position is heavier.
The concentration of shareholdings has changed greatly, and the holdings of similar funds are more concentrated, and the changes are more obvious. When the industry is good, heavy stocks can certainly maximize the fund's sharing of individual stock income, and in turn, when the industry risk increases, it will undoubtedly make the fund fluctuate more as a whole and bear more losses.
In addition, we see that Gülen's heavy stocks are mostly star stocks in the market, and the funds are crowded, very crowded, and there are few small and beautiful targets. Therefore, whether Gülen's stock selection ability is still to be considered. Of course, this is related to Gülen's too large fund size, which makes it difficult to hold heavy positions on small and potentially large targets, because buying more may exceed the prescribed proportion, buying less, and having little impact on the fund, and distracting energy.
06 stocks stepped on the thunder, chased the rise and killed the fall
From the perspective of position changes, Gülen's position is basically maintained at a high level, but the operation is quite a bit of chasing up and killing the meaning, often with the market to increase and decrease, which is a bit of retail behavior.
Take Changchun Gaoxin, which was once a heavy stock of Ceiblia Medical and Health, in 2021Q1, following the rise of Changchun Gaoxin, Gülen's holding of Changchun Gaoxin increased by 87.29% month-on-month, becoming the fourth largest shareholder of Changchun Gaoxin, and Changchun Gaoxin was also the third largest heavy stock of the fund at that time.
2021Q2 Changchun high-tech first rose and then fell, during which Gülen increased its position by 7.26%; 2021Q3 Changchun high-tech appeared bearish news, some media questioned that the injection may bring endocrine disorders and other side effects to the user, a sharp decline, at the same time Gülen also made a sharp adjustment of -17.9%, Changchun high-tech fell out of the heavy stock; 2021Q4 to 11-23, Changchun high-tech changes are not large, Gülen seems to come back to God, carried out 8.2% of the position. So is Gülen's sale in the third quarter due to the change in the fundamentals of Changchun High-tech? Buy logic changes? Or the chase under the panic. If it is a reduction after in-depth research, then how to buy it back in the fourth quarter?
In addition, after Guangdong Province will be growth hormone into the scope of collection, into the New Year's Changchun high-tech stock price plunged continuously, January 19, 20, 21 is three consecutive days of drop stop, although the 23rd Changchun high-tech clear long-acting growth hormone is not included in the alliance collection stock price ushered in the rise, but it seems that short-acting water needle is the most important part of the company's performance, Changchun high-tech is still very dangerous, and the future will not be more provinces to start to collect it is unknown.
Love the pharmaceutical track, heavy star stocks, large-scale... It can be said that the investment style that achieved Gülen in the past year is dragging Gülen into the abyss in the past year, of course, it may follow the changes in the market environment, and tomorrow it will be transformed into the cause of the achievement of the goddess of medicine. There are two sides to everything, especially investment, and when we see the ultimate return, we should see the ultimate risk.
Gülen has said that when the market environment is not good, investors should have more patience and confidence, but 40% of the fluctuations can be very difficult for many investors. What matters is how Gülen will give investors the patience and confidence.