Many years later, with more than 80,000 subordinate employees, more than 8,000 suppliers, more than 200 cooperative financial institutions, 2,000,000 owners, and many shareholders who are not in the statistical range, Hermès Licensing recalled the distant afternoon when he went to see the South Wind Window with 20,000 yuan?
From 20,000 yuan to 48 billion Hong Kong dollars, boss Xu's road to the richest man has only run for 17 years. And to destroy this huge business empire, Boss Xu seems to only need 4 years.
Therefore, I am absolutely convinced that Boss Xu was hired by his alma mater (Wuhan University of Science and Technology) as a doctoral supervisor in the direction of corporate strategic management. People real knives and real guns to achieve the richest man, but also rely on the ability to be in debt, this practical experience alone makes many management doctoral supervisors ashamed.
I don't know where it's higher than you
However, even the most clever woman could not cook a rice cooker.
Although Xu Jiayin repeatedly stressed in his letter to all employees, he "firmly believes that Evergrande will be able to get out of the darkest moment as soon as possible and accelerate the full resumption of work and production". However, the Evergrande system in Hong Kong stocks still ushered in a total rout: China Evergrande, Evergrande Property, and Hengteng Network fell by 9%-13%.
Relatively speaking, Evergrande Automobile, which fell 2.68%, looks to perform the best, but it also fell 10.07% during the session. Don't forget, early this morning, Evergrande Automobile announced the good news of distributing 320 million shares of options to 3180 employees!
The good news cannot save Evergrande, and the continuous debunking of rumors does not seem to have achieved the expected results. Looking at the entire real estate industry, the big news that broke out last night (September 20) was that R&F Property was sold for about 10 billion yuan and sold in Country Garden.
Everything indicates that tomorrow's big A shares will not escape the doom shrouded in haze.
❶ Evergrande Group: Why can't I rescue it anymore?
How serious will the Evergrande thing be?
Let's put it this way, if we string together the whole event as a suspenseful, adventurous "007" story, last year, we thought it would be a "007: Dawn of Life", but after the end of the year, this script has the flavor of "007: Die on the Chosen Day", and now, the story has developed to the latest series - "007: No Time to Die".
Why did Bond, played by Daniel Craig, always feel inferior to Brosnan or Sean Connery?
The paradox is that the state of "No Time to Die", which has repeatedly jumped tickets, is still "about to be released", and Evergrande's current state is really a special situation, keeping pace with the times.
According to the latest financial statements, China Evergrande (03333. HK)'s liabilities have reached 1.95 trillion yuan, winning the first place in the domestic real estate "negative man".
What is the concept of 1.95 trillion, coaxed netizens to do a conversion:
● Zheng Shuang, who once blew himself up with a daily salary of 2.08 million yuan, needed to work for about 2500 years a year (that is, from the Zhou Dynasty onwards, he was a model worker in the entertainment industry);
● As for the actual income of 3,000 yuan of hit workers... Sorry, you need 54 million years to make this money. Considering that mammals were not yet the mainstream of the Earth's biosphere at that time, you probably had to work for dinosaurs.
● According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, there are 12 provinces with a domestic GDP of less than 1.95 trillion yuan in 2020, and Evergrande has beaten the nominal output of 38.71% of the provinces in a year (regardless of the cost). In terms of actual fiscal expenditure, Guangdong Province is the first of all provinces to 1.29 trillion yuan, but it still cannot make up for Evergrande's hole.
Of course, the account cannot be calculated that way. Because according to the formula of assets = liabilities + owner's equity, considering the 2.3 trillion assets announced by Evergrande, combined with the fact that the entire real estate head enterprise is worse, it seems that there is still something to talk about?
But wait!
This 1.95 trillion yuan is reflected in the data of Evergrande's financial statements, which is only the tip of the iceberg that has surfaced. The bulk of Evergrande Group's liabilities are not in the group company, but in the intricate off-balance sheet liabilities (such as mortgage guarantees scattered in subsidiaries and subsidiaries, bill discounting, leasing, and a variety of related party transactions, asset securitization, etc.), and the real liabilities are probably only clear to Boss Xu.
We can only glimpse one of the scales and half claws from the following facts: after the financial regulator determined that after Evergrande controlled Shengjing Bank from 2016 to 2018, the related party transactions between the latter and Evergrande Group reached 100 billion yuan.
What's more, in the current tightening of real estate policies and sluggish market liquidity, it is not easy for Evergrande, which has an asset-heavy model, to realize the real estate and land reserves in its hands. Since the beginning of this year, Evergrande has sold houses at a "fracture price" and sold land in a "packaged" manner, but the receivers are vigilant. Coupled with the Evergrande car that the valuation blew into the sky but eventually smashed in the hand, the progress of Boss Xu's "selling himself and asking for a retreat" game was worrying.
Moreover, one of the prerequisites for debt management to continue to play is the existence of commercial credit. Looking at Evergrande's recent big moves, they include:
● In 2020, the company's interest-bearing liabilities were reduced by about 300 billion yuan at the cost of deferring the payment of 960 billion yuan of suppliers' payables;
● At the beginning of 2021, the "blame card" was successfully used in the form of debt-to-equity swap + abolition of the VAM agreement, and the debt of 100 billion yuan was handled;
● In September 2021, it stopped cashing Evergrande Wealth's 40 billion yuan of wealth management products (Note: It was graded at the beginning, and it has been completely discontinued after being exposed as "executive acceptance door").
If the World Trick Death Open is held, Evergrande, which ruthlessly tramples on commercial credit, can easily pick up the gold medal of its own action group.
It is not difficult to understand why the successive protests have completely lost the theoretical space for capital movement of Evergrande, which seems to be able to rescue it. The advance payment of Evergrande executives and Xu Boss's family looks like a crazy jump gang before the shipwreck.
People's hearts are scattered, and the team is not easy to bring.
❷ The thick black art of the leading big brother: sawing arrow method and pot repair method
In fact, for Xu Jiayin, what is more eye-catching than the achievements of the business war is his immersion in traditional Chinese culture.
109 years ago, Li Zongwu, a 33-year-old middle school principal, wrote "Thick Black Studies", which seems to have great malice toward the newly established Government of the Republic of China.
The principle of thick black science is simple:
(1) There are two common practices in China's military and political organs throughout the ages: the saw-and-arrow method and the method of replenishing pots.
(2) Someone hits an arrow, and the surgeon saws off the arrow shaft, as for taking the arrow? That's the internal medicine thing — that's sawing. And when the pot repairer fills the leaky bottom pot, taking advantage of the master's lack of attention, he uses the hammer to smash out several cracks on the side of the loophole, and then confidently scrapes the bottom ash of the pot, asks the owner for a higher fee, and finally the guest and the host are happy - this is the method of filling the pot.
(3) Judging the hour and sizing up the situation and using the two laws interchangeably is the general principle of doing things. The differences need to be carefully understood.
People are wonderful people, and books are good books.
Boss Xu's sawing and archery
Before Evergrande went public, Boss Xu was almost purged from the gambling game in the real estate market.
In 2008, the U.S. financial crisis suddenly erupted due to the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac crises. Boss Xu, who was running a staking ground, was forced by investors (Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank and other foreign investment banks), and the company's listing plan was almost aborted.
At the critical moment when his life was hanging on the line, Boss Xu hitched a ride on Hong Kong real estate tycoon Zheng Yutong. Relying on the excellent "hoeing the earth" poker skills trained in the Wuyang Iron and Steel Factory, Boss Xu met Zheng Yutong's deep friendship at the card table. As a result, it was supported by the group of Hong Kong real estate industries and successfully listed.
It can be seen how important it is to master a skill. Because you never know which cloud in the sky will rain.
After the listing, Boss Xu was full of spirits. As for the deep-seated financial and operational problems caused by Evergrande's previous leverage and being forced to go to the palace? Hey, I covered it with the money raised after the listing, and there was no discord in the financial report. It is equivalent to sawing off the exposed arrow shaft, without hindering the view!
In this way, with the precious window of the last round of water release, Evergrande has intensified its efforts to embark on the road of heavy assets and diversification, from victory to victory, and in 2017, it achieved the first place in domestic sales and land reserves, and the cash flow is quite abundant.
The only thing that is not so harmonious is that Evergrande has a reputation for "slow carry-over speed" in the industry - that is, commonly known as "uncle who owes money". But what does that matter? Rarely travel outside is the last word.
With more and more arrow wounds on the body, Evergrande's sawing and arrow techniques have become more and more skilled, and even they have played innovative.
For example, the compensation (especially bonuses) of Evergrande's 80,000 employees is a big problem, and it cannot be blatantly underpaid. What to do? Then set up a special internal financial management of Evergrande Financial Services (later renamed Evergrande Wealth in the rectification of financial order), the pooled funds for bank loan repayment, the company to increase the renewal of loans after obtaining credit enhancement, loan out of the money through a large number of mergers and acquisitions, if the packaging after the listing is a good thing to roll up ...
A guest official asked, what if the last step of capital operation is not smooth? Well, it doesn't matter, anyway, what is owed to be repaid is called debt, and what is owed is called owner's equity. It's a big deal to force a hand of 86.3 billion debt-to-equity swaps. Let the miserable creditors become shareholders who grow together, and the debt problem will not be seen!
Failed pot repair method
Anyone familiar with the commentary may know that many generals eventually died of "arrow sores bursting". Evergrande, which is addicted to sawing arrows, is probably not immune.
According to comprehensive online information, if Evergrande embarks on the road of no return, the stakeholders tied to it will involve dozens of industries and millions of people.
Therefore, in the exchange between Boss Xu and the leaders of Guangdong Province, a long list of data was listed, indicating the systemic gold risks that may be caused by the break of the capital chain, and accurately exposed a data:
Affected the employment of 3.31 million people
One thing to say is that the impact on employment is not necessarily as serious as Boss Xu claimed. Taking seven projects under construction in Changsha's Kaifu District, Hunan Province, as an example, Evergrande Real Estate owes more than 74 million yuan in wages to migrant workers (at the same time, the construction company has advanced more than 80 million yuan).
Without hard-earned money, this employment is not as good as unemployment.
The pot maker Xu Boss almost knocked the pot into pieces.
But this time, the pot repair method does not seem to be so good.
In August 2021, Chinese Min min bank announced the results of the negotiations with the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and Hengyue. Rare mentions of:
(Evergrande Group) must conscientiously implement the central government's strategic deployment for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, strive to maintain operational stability, actively resolve debt risks, maintain the real estate market and financial stability; do a good job of truthful information disclosure of major matters in accordance with laws and regulations, and do not disseminate and clarify false information in a timely manner.
As a last resort, the official website of Evergrande Group issued an announcement of "bankruptcy and restructuring is untrue":
On September 15, the National Bureau of Statistics responded to Evergrande's debt crisis, indicating that the established policy remains unchanged:
In general, some large real estate enterprises have encountered some difficulties in the production and operation process, and the impact on the development of the entire industry needs to be observed... Since the beginning of this year, as various regions and departments have adhered to the principle of 'housing and not speculation', they have continued to stabilize house prices, land prices and expectations, and the overall operation has maintained a stable trend.
The direct reason for this pot of government not being backed is, of course, that the mess has been eroded beyond control.
Evergrande's liabilities for the first half of 2020 are as follows:
If the scar is a veteran's medal, the arrow cut from Boss Xu's body should be able to hit a hoe
According to Bloomberg, Evergrande Group has 240 billion yuan of interest-bearing liabilities maturing within 1 year, including 48 billion yuan of debt due early next year.
The deeper reason is that macroeconomic policies do not have room for reversibility.
Through the macro data released by the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, I used a calculator to press a random button, and found that compared with 10 years ago, the per capita debt of residents in the country increased by 5.3 times from January to August this year (among them, from 2016 to 2017 before macro-control, the debt growth rate was stable by more than 20%). If we open the release of water to inventory again, can China still struggle to maintain the delicate balance of "fighting without breaking"?
It is better to summon up enough courage to completely cut out the arrow that has entered the bone.
After all, in China, as long as the government shows enough determination, there is no so-called "big but can't fail" case.
❸ Epilogue
Speaking of which, Boss Xu is a real reckless hero who is "in the white blade and kills in the red dust". Its early legends are enough to be recounted in a separate article. After being known to the public, the other stories are also very distinctive.
For example, from 2011 to 2020, Evergrande Group, which pays dividends every year, has a dividend rate of more than 50%, which makes Poly, Sunac, Country Garden and Vanke, which maintain a dividend rate of 20%-30%, stunned. Mr. and Mrs. Xu Jiayin, who account for 76.7% of the total share capital, have obtained an astonishing wealth of more than 50 billion yuan from the dividends over the years.
In this way, Evergrande Wealth, which was deeply troubled by the redemption of 40 billion yuan, also paid Mrs. Xu's 23 million yuan of wealth management products in advance in May this year.
If this were a financial quotient story, the conclusion would be that rich people are rich because they pay attention to every detail of making money.
But you must understand that what sets off this wealth legend are countless humble Evergrande grassroots employees, small and medium-sized suppliers, ordinary owners, stock market small scatters and silent migrant workers who can only be reflected in statistics...
Compared with Boss Xu, their lives are like duckweed.
Their faces are the same as yours and mine.
For more information, please visit the public account General Arrow (jiangjunjian31). Go to heaven on the left, go to the golden basin on the right, and open the bow
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