The Super Bowl LVI is about to open. The winner will be celebrated for countless years to come, the loser will inevitably suffer a sneer, competitive sports are interesting and cruel.
Today's question is simple: Joe Burrow vs Matthew Stafford, quarterback PK who is better. Both are draft picks, but one of them has spent twelve years in Detroit, while the other looks like the ruler of the future league.
We will compare different kinds of situations and go through 12 long rounds of competition to see who is better.
Round 1: Who is better in the stability indicator?
Stable quarterback metrics are some of the stats that don't usually fluctuate much between seasons, including: passing in a clean pocket, passing in a pocket with a standard retreat, passing in first and second gear, passing that doesn't fake real pass, and passing across the first line.
Of the 35 quarterbacks who played at least 200 slots this season, Burrow and Stafford performed and ranked as follows:
Stafford is in the top ten of the league, but Borrow is basically number one, with only one being second.
Result: Burrow
Round 2: Who's better at passing?
We've always known About Stafford's unicorn arm, but Burrow and Jamal Chase have had excellent chemistry from the college arena. Here's the stats of two quarterbacks passing long passes above 20 yards:
Again, both quarterbacks were brilliant on long passes, but one of them performed slightly better overall. Stafford lived up to the name of the long-pass gunner, and in the efficiency indicator of the number of yards obtained in each long pass, Stafford led the league in the regular season.
And into the playoffs Stafford maintained the feel, 14 long passes hit 7 goals, 255 yards 2 touchdown 0 interceptions. In the playoffs, Ribaro only had 3 of 9 passes, 101 yards and 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, and The Stafford advantage was even greater in the playoffs.
Result: Stafford
Round 3: Who performs better when the receiver is empty?
The PFF tracks the space for receivers in each offensive gear, so we can see how Burrow and Stafford fare when passing to empty or completely empty positions.
It looks like Boro is slightly better. When passing to vacant positions, he leads the league with a PFF score of 95.5, a quarterback pass score of 135.0, and an attempt of 11.2 yards per file. Stafford ranks in the league's top eight in all of these dimensions, but only ranks 16th in the league with a true shooting percentage of 91.7 percent, while Burrow's 93.5 percent is third.
When the receiver is empty and the distance is more than 10 yards, Burrow has an advantage. He finished 54 of 63 goals (3 steals), 1395 yards (22.1 yards per gear attempt), 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, which was crazy.
Round 4: Who's better at extending offense?
Neither Stafford nor Burrow have the ability to run out of their pockets to extend their offense like Lamar Jackson or Keller Murray, but they are also not statues that stay in their pockets.
This is especially true for Burrow, where the data confirm what we are seeing. The following metrics represent the passing data of Burrow and Stafford on the run:
Burrow: 228 yards out of 13 of 27 passes (8.4 yards per attempt), 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions
Stafford: 68 yards out of 6 out of 20 passes (3.4 yards per attempt), 2 touchdowns and 1 interception
In addition to passing, Burrow advanced 140 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 escapes and had five breakout tackles, while Stafford only had 14 runs and 87 yards and 0 touchdowns, and did not appear to use the punch skill pack frequently.
This is the biggest round of disparities to date. Burrow ranked sixth in the league with a PFF pass score of 83.9 on the run; Stafford's 52.3 was only in 28th place. Although the sample size is small, it is clear that Burrow will bring more fear to the opponent after running out of the pocket.
Round 5: Who is better against double highs?
There has been a clear trend this season, with production and performance slipping when top quarterbacks like Mahomes and Josh Allen face a double high before kickoff. Both the Rams and Tigers defensive groups will use the double highs before kickoffs roughly a third of the time, meaning both quarterbacks at the Super Bowl will face a double high challenge.
Again, a relatively disparity in contrast. Burrow's PFF pass score of 79.4, quarterback pass score of 95.4, 8.1 yards per file attempt and 82.5 percent true shooting percentage at least ranked in the league's top 12, while Stafford had a slight advantage of 8.2 yards per gear attempt, but only ranked 33rd with a true shooting percentage of 77.5 percent, behind Big Ben, Sam Darnold and Newton, and some of them should not be.
Round 6: Who is better against a single high?
While both teams of defense know how to limit quarterbacks with double highs, that doesn't mean it's the same in every gear of the game. When the defensive team used a security guard to stand in the backcourt, Boro had a slight advantage:
Similar to what we see in the stability indicator: the great quarterback in the eyes of everyone in Stafford, but Burrow's numbers are just too scary.
Round 7: Who is more stable against different modes of defense?
The two face at least 50 files of the following different types of anti-pass modes, and the PFF score is as follows:
In addition to facing the distance cover 1 man staring, Burrow has an advantage in all defensive modes, in fact, Stafford's PFF rating is the first in the league when facing cover 1, but Burrow also has the third highest.
Borrow won six times in the first seven rounds.
Round 8: Who is better at limiting mistakes?
It's cool to make large-size advances, but it's also important to limit mistakes. Unfortunately, there's no one platform between the two at all: Stafford is one of the most error-prone quarterbacks in the league this season, with potentially missed pass rates — tied for 23rd in the league. Burrow's 2.4 percent is the sixth-fewest quarterbacks in the league for potential turnovers.
Burrow certainly had some decisions made on the head, such as a cross-cut in the fourth quarter of the American League Final, and a potential misstep ball that almost became a cutout. Stafford's ability to control turnovers was great after entering the playoffs, but even so, his potential turnover rate of 1.8 percent in the playoffs was still higher than Borrow's 1.6 percent.
Advantage: Burrow
Round 9: Who's better against a raid?
Spoiler: Both were brilliant in the face of raids.
Overall, Burrow scored the best in the league with a PFF pass rating of 93.0 when facing a raid, with Stafford's 91.2 in third place. Stafford fired 15 touchdowns in the face of a raid but was intercepted only once; this was better than Burrow's 11:5 touchdown. Burrow had a lot of advantages in trying to get yards in each gear (11.2 to 9.3), but in the end the Rams were leading the Tigers' +0.239 top offense EPA+0.563 against the raid.
In the Super Bowl, Burrow will have a lot of opportunities to deal with raids, because the Rams have a 28.8% raid usage rate, the eighth highest in the league, while the Tigers have a raid rate of 18.3% The league is second to last, plus Stafford's top performance against raids, perhaps the Tigers will not let Stafford see too many raids.
Round 10: Better when facing pressure?
Performance in the face of pressure isn't a pretty stable indicator, but it's still a good indicator of who is better at solving tough problems when Plan A fails. It's safe to say that Burrow is superior to Stafford in this dimension; he leads on almost every metric, except for trying to get yards per gear when under pressure.
Here's the problem: Burrow's 26 percent pressure translates into tackles, the third-highest in the league, behind Mayfield and Zach Wilson, while Stafford's 17.5 percent tackle conversion rate ranks just 19th. That helps explain why the Rams attacked the EPA-0.252 league fourth when under pressure, much better than the Tigers' -0.405 league no. 15, even though Burrow had the advantage in actual passing.
The Rams' 25.6 percent pressure rate is the fourth lowest in the league, while the Tigers' 33.1 percent pressure rate ranks 15th. Burrow may be better at passing the ball when under pressure, but tackles are important, and as a whole, Burrow did not suppress the impact of large-size losses.
Round 11: Who performed better in the conversion gear?
It can be said that who can control the success or failure of the third gear, who has a better chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The Rams' offensive EPA+0.274 in third gear had a slight advantage over the Tigers' +0.157, but both teams ranked in the top five of the league. Burrow's 86.6 in the third-run PFF pass score narrowly beat Stafford's 86.0. Burrow is more accurate, but Stafford tries to get more efficient yardage in each gear, and it's hard to say who is better or worse.
If we just look at the playoffs, then Stafford is pulling back a city again. Stafford's three-stop pass in the playoffs was 29 passes, 19 totals, 291 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interceptions, and Burrow's 29 passes, 22, 193 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, were equally good, but Stafford's attempts to get yards per gear were 3.3 yards higher than Borrow's.
Round 12: Who is more important at the critical moment?
Due to the small sample size at key moments, this dimension is difficult to judge. But we believe more in quarterbacks who can finish the fourth quarter and turn a defeat into a victory.
In fact, both quarterbacks were close to the top of the league in the fourth quarter and overtime, but Stafford had a clear advantage in any comparison. In the fourth quarter or overtime, Stafford's PFF pass scored 90.1 league first, with only one interception in 13 touchdowns. Burrow's pass rating of 77.5 ranked 12th, and the 10 touchdowns had 8 interceptions, and the true shooting rate was lower than That of Stafford.
Just looking at the playoffs, both quarterbacks were brilliant in the final quarter of the game, but Stafford was slightly better.
conclusion
The results of the two PK were fairly close, with Burrow beating Stafford by a slight margin of 7-5. Burrow has advantages in the following dimensions: pass stability indicators, receiver's empty passes, extended offense, limiting mistakes, and stability in different defensive modes. Stafford's long passes, key moments and ability to handle pressure better are commendable, but overall it does look like Burrow is slightly better than Stafford.
Of course, any analysis has to be implemented in the 60 minutes of impromptu play on the Super Bowl, the Rams have a better lineup, the Tigers have a better quarterback, super bowl LVI, we have eyes blessed.