At 21:30 Beijing time on Thursday (February 10), the US January CPI data was released, and the data showed that the annual rate of unseasoned CPI (year-on-year growth rate) in the United States in January recorded 7.5%, higher than the expected 7.30% and the previous value of 7%, continuing to hit a new 40-year high; the US unseasoned core CPI recorded 6% in January, a new high since September 1982. The US quarter-adjusted CPI (moM) recorded 0.6% in January, higher than expected 0.5%, and the previous value was revised up to 0.6%.
After the data was released, gold reproduced the roller coaster market, first short-term decline after a strong rebound, and then fell, the volatility of more than 16 US dollars, the lowest to the 1821 line, in the early morning gold rose again to 1841 a line to hit a new high, the tail gold did not oscillate at a high level but fell back to below 1830, and finally the daily line closed. Persistently high inflation data could force the Fed to consider raising rates by 50 basis points for the first time since 2000. Fed swap trading suggests the Fed will raise rates by 1% by July, with a 50 basis point hike in March with a around 50% probability. There is no doubt that the gold bearish trend is about to begin.
Daily point of view, gold since the bottom of the 1780 has opened a rebound trend, several consecutive days of rise did not give the bears any chance, Thursday night the highest rise to 1841 a line, from the lowest point of 1780 to the highest point of 1841 rose by $60, this halfway without any correction, from the time and space point of view, gold Thursday's rush to fall back to close is a signal, gold may start to fall again, below the support to see the 1792-1788 area.
Hourly line point of view, gold on Thursday night rushed up the 1841 line after falling, the tail not only did not rebound up, but also continued to fall, Bollinger band in the lower rail opening downwards, KDJ dead fork after the downward divergence running, MACD green energy column volume running, all kinds of signals indicate that gold is going to fall, like this gold in the early period of sustained strengthening of the trend may not have any rebound once it falls.
On the whole, gold continued to strengthen for a period of time up to $60, Thursday night's rush to fall back to break this rally, there is no doubt that gold is going to fall next, and this decline is also relatively fierce, may not appear any rebound, so intraday operations recommend in the 1830-1835 area layout short order, below to see 1815-1807.
This article is written by Shen Yunce, who mainly focuses on gold, silver, crude oil, foreign exchange and other commodities, and has a deep study of the market. Due to the delay and timeliness of network posting, it is recommended for reference only, and the specific operation is subject to the actual guidance!
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