Who is clamoring for the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War?

As the world celebrates the Beijing Winter Olympics, tensions continue along the Russian-Ukrainian border, another hot spot in Eurasia. Around the Russian proposal for security guarantees, the United States and Russia held several rounds of diplomatic dialogue, but "no result" seems to be the only "result" of the dialogue. Along with this, the prospects for peace in Eastern Ukraine have become increasingly uncertain.

On Sunday, U.S. National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan claimed that the U.S. believes Russia could "invade" Ukraine at any time. Is Russia and Ukraine really on the brink of war, as the US side said? To what extent is the West ready to accept and "defend" Ukraine?

The prospects for the implementation of the Minsk Agreement are uncertain

U.S. State Department spokesman Price reiterated in early February that the U.S. side encouraged all parties to fully implement the Minsk Agreement to ease tensions in the Eastern Region. After meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 7, French President Emmanuel Macron said that both France and Russia believe that the Minsk Agreement remains the basis for resolving the Ukrainian issue. Macron also disclosed to the media after talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky on the 8th that Ukraine is willing to implement the Minsk Agreement.

Although all parties concerned have the will to promote the implementation of the Minsk Agreement and start the peace process, the prospects for the implementation of the agreement are not clear. First of all, many of the provisions of the agreement concerning the ceasefire, withdrawal of troops and the granting of autonomy to the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics in the Eastern Region are vaguely defined, and there are obvious differences in the understanding of the provisions by all parties, and the operability is not strong. Second, there is a bias in the perception of the implementation of the agreement by the parties, with the West and Ukraine believing that Russia should be the executor of the agreement, while Russia believes that Russia is only a guarantor of the agreement, not a party.

Some analysts pointed out that since the signing of the Minsk Agreement, the situation in Eastern Ukraine has been hovering in a cycle of conflict and ceasefire for a long time, and the vision of relying on all parties to implement the agreement to cool down the situation is no longer realistic. Former Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Reznikov has said that many of the provisions in the agreement cannot be realized. Dimitri Kozak, deputy director of the Office of the Russian President, also said in an interview with the media: "As long as there are differences in the understanding of the agreement between the parties, the Normandy model is unlikely to play an important role in the conflict between Ukraine and Eastern Europe."

The United States frequently plays "Russia is about to invade Ukraine"

On February 7, the British Reuters news agency and some US media quoted sources as saying that Russia had deployed 70% of the military forces needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Earlier, on February 3, US State Department spokesman Price said at a press conference that Russian intelligence agencies plan to falsify the video of the Ukrainian army attacking Russian territory as an excuse for Russia to take military action against Ukraine. But when the reporter asked him to show evidence and confirm the authenticity, Price did not give a clear response, saying only that he "recommends believing the words of the US government."

The American and Western media are not idle. On February 4, bloomberg in the United States posted the headline "Live: Russia invaded Ukraine" on the homepage of its website, and although Bloomberg subsequently debunked the rumors and apologized, the fake news has spread around the world. On February 5, the German newspaper Bild published an article titled "Putin's Plan to Invade Ukraine," citing "messages from unnamed people" claiming that "Russia will occupy all of Ukraine."

While the US side frequently clamored that "Russia is about to invade Ukraine", it is also further intensifying the current tension with practical actions. A Polish military spokesman revealed that the first U.S. troops to reinforce Eastern Europe arrived in Poland on February 6, and "the first personnel of the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division Battle Group have arrived in Poland, and 1,700 U.S. soldiers from the division will be stationed in Poland in the coming days." According to information released by the U.S. Military European Command, the U.S. military has declared 8,500 military personnel in combat readiness for near-term deployment to Eastern Europe.

Dmitry Poliyansky, Russia's First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, wrote on his personal Twitter account: "Washington's so-called 'Russia will invade Ukraine' is a typical propaganda war. This is false information with no evidence and no source. But if anyone questions these words, it will be seen as justifying Russia. The Russian side has repeatedly stressed that the Russian side has not threatened anyone and does not intend to attack any country. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that no one should be upset about the deployment of troops in its own territory; the claim of "Russian aggression" is only used by NATO as a pretext for deploying more military equipment on the Russian border. Peskov said in an interview with the media a few days ago that while fabricating false information that "Russia will launch aggression", the United States has increased nato's military deployment in Eastern Europe, which just proves that it is not Russia that has aggravated tensions.

War is only one of the means by which political intentions are realized

The Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, in his book On War, argues that war is only a means of achieving political intentions. So, in the current russian-Ukrainian border tensions, what are the political motives of all parties?

Xiao Bin, deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the Biden administration needs such a suitable opportunity to repair the transatlantic relations that were damaged during the Trump administration by leading European allies to show common will, thereby maintaining and strengthening the global leadership of the United States. Putin hopes to use the Ukraine issue to put forward a proposal for security guarantees and respond forcefully to the current international system that is not in Russia's national interests, which essentially reflects the connotation of "Putin neoconservatism".

Guan Xueling, a professor at the School of Economics and the Center for Russian Studies at Chinese Min University, elaborated in the article "Putin Neoconservatism" that the strategic goal of "Putin neoconservatism" is the re-emergence of Russia. Russia seeks to engage in dialogue with the Western world on an equal footing and become an important pole in the future multipolar world pattern.

Dmitry Trinin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said a few days ago that military deterrence is one of the important tools of Russia's current foreign policy. Putin is reshaping Russia's external environment, and changing the European security landscape of NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union is one of his goals. "The current situation in Ukraine is the ideal entry point for Russia to move forward with this process." In Trinin's view, the Russian proposal for security guarantees is difficult to be accepted by NATO, but NATO has begun to attach importance to Russia's security concerns and choose to engage in dialogue with Russia. This is equivalent to the United States acknowledging that NATO's eastward expansion process is not "peaceful and friendly", but poses a security threat to Russia. This is a major victory for Russian diplomacy. In addition, Moscow has seen in the process that NATO is still very jealous of Russia's military deterrent. Dmitry Trinin believes that Russia has gained something positive and valuable from the West, that "military deterrence" has proved effective in diplomatic dialogue with the West, and that "the Americans claim that war is imminent and that there will be many interesting things that will happen in the end of how the situation will unfold."

War is a continuation of politics through another means, but war itself is fraught with danger and uncertainty. Who can bear the weight of the outbreak of war? If war does break out, it will be endured only by soldiers who go to war, civilians who have lost loved ones.

Xiao Bin wrote at the end of "Is War looming?": "Peace is fragile. In an unbalanced and highly competitive international system, war could be imminent at any time. Sovereign States need to follow the principle of thinking twice when the possibility of war reaches a tipping point. ”

Beijing, 9 Feb (Xinhua) -- Zhao Qi, a reporter from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily

Source: China Youth Daily