【Article/Observer Network Columnist Xing Yu】
On September 23, U.S. Commerce Secretary Raymondo and White House National Economic Council Director Dees set up a banquet at the Hongmen Gate to "sincerely invite" TSMC, Samsung and other major upstream, middle- and downstream manufacturers in the global semiconductor supply chain to discuss the establishment of an "early warning system for chip shortages" to improve the "transparency" of the entire industry.
The US side proposed on the spot that it requires each company to hand over to the US government all 26 types of trade secrets such as customer information, product flow and delivery cycle in the past three years before November 8. The US side stressed that this is all "voluntary"; but if it refuses to pay, the US has other means, including invoking the Defense Production Act to enforce it.
As soon as the news came out, the whole world was in an uproar. In the past few days, the media reported that TSMC, Samsung and other companies are still oscillating between compromise and persistence, and it is painful to make a decision.
Is the global semiconductor industry going to run naked from now on?
Why is the United States doing this?
Some people may wonder that the US government has long relied on technology monopoly, dollar hegemony and legal "long-arm jurisdiction" in the semiconductor industry to call the wind and rain, American companies eat fat ears, and enterprises in various countries share a piece of the pie, which can be described as "hello, hello, hello, hello." The US government suddenly engaged in this, what is the purpose?
In doing so, the United States is to engage in chip hegemony.
Obviously, the UNITED States' strategic autism and paranoia toward China have developed to a new stage. One of the manifestations of autism is to exclude China, build an "absolutely safe" "industrial peach blossom source" with allies and partners, and surround and block China's climb along the world economic value chain. What the US side is delusional is to always sit on the most profitable part of the world's high-tech and high-end manufacturing industry, and let China always assemble mobile phones and computers, produce clothes, shoes and socks.
As the pearl in the crown of high technology, the semiconductor industry is the heart of the United States, and naturally first became the "key protection object" of the United States. The difficulty of flowing people and materials caused by the sudden epidemic of the century has seriously interfered with the operation of the global semiconductor industry chain, and the world's large-scale "lack of core" has further catalyzed the pathological paranoia of the United States to build a "small hospital high wall".
Chip industry distribution
How many steps does it take to put an elephant in the refrigerator?
In the view of the United States, in the entire semiconductor industry chain, research and development-intensive industries such as core intellectual property rights, electronic design automation industrial platforms, chip design, and manufacturing equipment have been firmly controlled by the United States and Western allies. However, investment-intensive industries such as wafer manufacturing, testing and packaging are concentrated in Asia such as Taiwan Province of China and South Korea. 75% of the world's semiconductor production capacity, especially 5nm, 7nm and the upcoming 3nm top chip production line are in Asia. In this regard, the United States is like a needle in a needle, can not sleep at night, must act.
Only by stuffing the elephant of the chip industry into its own refrigerator can the United States achieve the purpose of "stuck neck" for other countries in technology, which can be divided into three steps:
The first step: "open the refrigerator door" - ordered the world, requiring enterprises to hand over all trade secrets, including what to produce, how much annual output, where to get the raw materials needed, who to sell to, and so on.
If the company does not cooperate? Immediately sacrifice the "National Defense Production Law", "National Security Law" and other big sticks, threatening to repair enterprises like Huawei and ZTE.
If the enterprise is in place, after the United States gets these data, through cross-comparison analysis, it can easily grasp the technology, personnel, materials, profit flow, distribution and redistribution of the whole industrial chain of the chip, laying the foundation for the next step.
The second step: "Stuff the elephant into it" - soft and hard, coercing manufacturers to transfer the urgently needed 5nm and higher technologies, production capacity and supporting industries in the United States to North America.
So far, TSMC has announced that it will spend $12 billion to build a 5-nanometer production line in the United States, and recently it was revealed that it intends to further expand and build a 3-nanometer production line with a total investment of at least $56 billion. Samsung plans to invest $17 billion to build a 3nm production line in the United States, and Intel decided to invest $20 billion to build two new factories. The United States has also established a bilateral working group on the semiconductor supply chain with Mexico to promote the construction of a chip assembly plant in The State of California, Mexico.
The third step, "close the refrigerator door" - when the United States fully obtains the top chip manufacturing capacity of 3 nanometers and 5 nanometers and puts it into production smoothly, the United States will completely control the semiconductor industry chain.
At this time, the United States is very likely to start again, and force TSMC, Samsung, etc. to shut down the Production Line in Asia, reduce production, restrict the production of 7-nanometer and higher process chips, and only allow supply to "white-listed" companies in the United States.
Considering the lessons of France's Alstom, it may be that the United States will also black hand, and then shake a hand, and directly "snatch" TSMC and so on to Intel or Qualcomm to annex.
In the dream of the United States, when the global semiconductor research and development, manufacturing, and sales will be under the control of the United States, the "anti-proliferation" mechanism of semiconductors in mind will complete the "closed loop".
Can the American dream come true?
The answer, of course, is no.
First of all, who are the chips produced and sold to?
Semiconductor R & D and production investment is huge, the construction of factories often tens of billions of dollars, the need for huge sales to maintain a virtuous cycle. China is the world's largest consumer market for semiconductors, accounting for 34.4% of the world's consumption share in 2020, and continues to expand.
The United States has implemented a number of export bans on Huawei, SMIC, etc., and even if the United States masters the advanced semiconductor process and production capacity in the future, if it cannot sell the amount, it will lose all its money. This account, the industry and capital are more refined than anyone, and no one does the loss-making business.
Second, can semiconductor manufacturers sit still?
The pursuit of "absolute security" is "absolute insecurity." Customer information, product flow, supply cycle, etc. are very important to an enterprise, once the trade secrets are mastered by a third party, it may lead to the loss of bargaining power of the enterprise, which will seriously affect sales, resulting in a decline in revenue and profits, which in turn affects R&D investment, and ultimately damages the core competitiveness of enterprises. The US government and business community are inextricably linked, accustomed to "pulling the bias frame", who can guarantee that the trade secrets of TSMC and Samsung will not be handed over to American companies?
In recent years, the United States has repeatedly broken through the bottom line of laws and rules, violating the laws of the market and the law of the economy. The "decoupling" pursued by the US side is actually a prison, which is decoupled from the market and decoupled from the future. While giving the US government a false and a snake, semiconductor manufacturers are carefully preparing "materials" to avoid harming the rights and interests of customers and shareholders, and at the same time accelerating the "zero US technology" semiconductor industry chain to serve a larger and more open market.
Finally, is China vegetarian?
One of the laws of China's development is: the tighter the blockade between the United States and the West, the faster China will break through! "Two bombs and one satellite" is so, manned spaceflight is so, and semiconductors will not be an exception. In recent years, China has invested heavily in the weak links of the semiconductor industry chain and made rapid progress. Taking Huawei's mobile phones as an example, Japan found after dismantling Huawei's Mate40E mobile phone that China's semiconductor original self-sufficiency rate has reached nearly 60%, compared with only 30% 2 years ago.
The road is obstructed and long, and the line is coming. Although facing many difficulties for the time being, the future of China's semiconductor development is bright and promising.
What should TSMC do?
There are talented people in the Jiangshan generation. The prominent "overlords" of the semiconductor industry, Fairchild Semiconductor, National Semiconductor, Bell, Infineon, etc., have either disappeared or been annexed. TSMC and Asmay can be industry giants today, once they lose their autonomy and stay away from the market, they may be surpassed and replaced tomorrow.
Don't think that the United States will close its hands when it gets the business data this time, throw a hug to the United States, and actively build factories in the United States. If you don't leave a way back for yourself, you could become the next Alstom, and you will be eaten to the point of no scum. |
China's reform will not stagnate, and the door to opening up will become larger and larger. China will not be willing to only produce low value-added products, with the continuous deepening of the "double cycle", China can and will certainly occupy its due position in the whole chain of research and development, production and sales of the global semiconductor industry chain. China welcomes global semiconductor manufacturers to actively explore the Chinese market, jointly make the cake bigger and bigger, and share china's development dividends.
There are still days to go before the deadline for submissions required by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Semiconductor companies refuse to run naked, defend their own interests, and unite!
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