The Paper's reporter Zhang Jun
The 2021 economic report card of various parts of the Yangtze River Delta has been released one after another. The surging news (www.thepaper.cn) combed and found that in addition to the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry in GDP has exceeded 70%, Shanghai, which is in the post-industrial period, the three industrial structures of many cities and provinces last year changed the previous "decline in the proportion of secondary production and the proportion of tertiary industry", and showed "two rises and three declines".
The same is true throughout the country. Last year, the proportion of added value of China's three industries was 7.3%, 39.4% and 53.3%, respectively. Compared with the previous year, the proportion of secondary production increased by 1.6 percentage points, and the proportion of tertiary production decreased by 1.2 percentage points.
"A major factor in the formation of 'two rises and three falls' is that the industry is less affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic than the service industry, and the growth accelerated under the pull of exports. The tertiary industrial structure is an indicator of positive correlation with per capita income level, and the mainland's per capita GDP has exceeded $12,000, just reached the threshold of high-income economies, and is moving towards the threshold of $20,000 for prosperity. From the perspective of international experience, the per capita GDP has increased from 12,000 US dollars to 20,000 US dollars, and the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry has increased from about 55% to about 65%, and the proportion of the mainland is still less than 55%, and it is still in the stage of continuous improvement. On February 10, Ming Wenbiao, executive director of the New Economic Development Research Center of Zhejiang Tsinghua Yangtze River Delta Research Institute, said in an interview with the surging news.
From "two drops and three liters" to "two liters and three drops"
In China's division, the primary industry refers to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery; the secondary industry refers to mining, manufacturing, electricity, heat, gas, water production and supply, construction; the tertiary industry, that is, the service industry, refers to other industries other than the primary and secondary industries.
Looking around the "trillion cities" in the Yangtze River Delta, Hangzhou is the remarkable one of the above "two or three changes". Last year, the city's GDP reached 1810.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5%, the growth rate of the secondary and tertiary industries tended to be synchronized, and the structure of the added value of the tertiary industry was adjusted from 2.0: 29.8: 68.2 in the previous year to 1.8: 30.3: 67.9, the proportion of secondary production increased by 0.5 percentage points, and the proportion of tertiary production fell by 0.3 percentage points.
This is the first transformation of the relationship between the two in years. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, Hangzhou's tertiary industrial structure was upgraded from 3.5:47.3:49.2 in 2010 to 2.9:38.9:58.2 in 2015. In the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", the proportion of secondary production has decreased by more than 1 percentage point per year, and the proportion of tertiary production has increased by more than 1 percentage point per year.
From 2016 to 2020, the total economic volume of Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu Province, increased from 1,050.3 billion yuan to 1,481.8 billion yuan, and the proportion of added value of secondary production decreased year by year, and the proportion of added value of tertiary production increased year by year. Last year, the structure of the added value of the three industries was adjusted from 2.0: 35.2: 62.8 in the previous year to 1.8: 36.1: 62.1, the proportion of secondary production increased by 0.9 percentage points, and the proportion of tertiary production fell by 0.7 percentage points.
There are also Ningbo and Nantong that have reversed the pattern of "two drops and three rises". According to the preliminary accounting data released by the Nantong Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the city's three industrial structures last year were 4.4:48.6:47.0, the proportion of tertiary production decreased by 0.9 percentage points over the previous year, and the proportion of secondary production increased by 1.1 percentage points. The ratio of ningbo, an industrial powerhouse, last year was 2.4:48.0:49.6, and the proportion of added value in the tertiary industry fell for the first time since 2018 and returned to less than 50%.
More than just the city economy
The "two rises and three declines" in 2021 are not only in the urban economy, but also at the provincial and national levels.
The added value of Anhui's three industries last year accounted for 7.8%, 41% and 51.2% of GDP. Compared with the previous year, the proportion of the secondary industry increased by 1 percentage point, and the proportion of the tertiary industry decreased by 0.4 percentage points.
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the proportion of added value of Jiangsu's service industry in GDP increased year by year, and last year's three industrial structures were 4.1:44.5:51.4, the proportion of added value of secondary production increased compared with the previous year, and the proportion of added value of tertiary production decreased.
The added value of Zhejiang's primary, secondary and tertiary industries accounted for 3.0%, 42.4% and 54.6% respectively last year, while the structure of the previous year was 3.3:40.9:55.8.
The echelon pattern of "three, two and one" in the industrial structure is usually considered to reflect that the regional economy has entered a stage of high-efficiency comprehensive development, and the proportion of the mainland tertiary industry in the economy has already exceeded 50%.
Zhao Tonglu, director of the Department of National Accounts of the National Bureau of Statistics, wrote an article on the China Economic Network in January that last year, the mainland achieved a GDP of 114.37 trillion yuan, an average growth of 5.1% in two years, the proportion of the added value of the three industries was 7.3%, 39.4% and 53.3% respectively, the proportion of secondary industry increased by 1.6 percentage points over the previous year, and the proportion of tertiary industry fell by 1.2 percentage points.
Previously, in 2019 and 2020, the proportion of the added value of China's secondary industry was 39.0% and 37.8%, respectively, accounting for a decline; the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry was 53.9% and 54.5%, respectively, and the proportion increased.
The industry is lightly affected by the epidemic due to export pull
"The optimization and upgrading of the three industrial structures is positively correlated with the growth of per capita national income - people with different incomes have different demand elasticities for different products, with the growth of per capita income, the relative demand for agricultural products decreases, the relative demand for industrial products rises first and then falls, and finally the demand for the service industry is the mainstay, and the structural changes in demand guide the development of the production structure." Ming Wenbiao, executive director of the New Economic Development Research Center of the Yangtze River Delta Research Institute of Tsinghua University in Zhejiang, said that the mainland's per capita GDP has grown for many years and has now exceeded 12,000 US dollars, and the long-term fundamentals of the economy will not change, but the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry that is close to 55% is still seven or eight percentage points away from the lower threshold of the rich economy, and it is still in the stage of continuous improvement.
Of course, a long-term trend does not mean that there are no short-term fluctuations. He said: Since the beginning of reform and opening up, there have been three reversals in the proportion of the added value of the mainland's tertiary industry. The first time was from 1992 to 1996, after the establishment of the socialist market economic system, the proportion of township industry and other major developments, the proportion of the added value of tertiary production fell by 2 percentage points in four years; the second time, from 2002 to 2004, the external demand market opened up with China's accession to the World Trade Organization, driving the rapid growth of industrial production capacity and output, and the proportion of added value of tertiary production fell by 1.4 percentage points; the third time was from 2009 to 2010, when the mainland launched the "Four Trillion Plan" to cope with the impact of the international financial crisis and expand domestic demand. The proportion of the tertiary industry has also fallen narrowly.
On November 27, 2021, the operation scene of the chuanshan wharf of Zhoushan Port in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province. People's Vision Infographic
For last year's "two rises and three declines", Ming Wenbiao believes that a major factor is that the industry is driven by export growth, and the impact of the epidemic is lighter than that of the service industry. For example, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country reached 44.1 trillion yuan in that year, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year, an average increase of 3.9% in two years; the total import and export of goods was 39.1 trillion yuan, a sharp increase of 21.4% over the previous year, an average growth of 11.3% in two years, and the net export of goods and services drove GDP growth by 1.7 percentage points. The national industrial capacity utilization rate was 77.5%, the highest level in recent years, and the industrial added value increased by 9.6%, and the growth rate accelerated, and the average growth rate of 6.1% in the two years was close to the average level of normal years.
Taking Zhejiang as an example, the total export value reached 3.01 trillion yuan last year, an increase of 19.7%, and the growth of industrial export delivery accelerated, and the pulling effect on production was enhanced. According to statistics, the province's industrial sales output value increased by 22.8% over the previous year, of which the domestic sales output value and export delivery value increased by 22.4% and 24.5% respectively, and the average growth rate of the two years reached 11.8%. The two-year average growth rate of export delivery value accelerated quarter by quarter, with 9.4%, 9.5%, 10.0% and 11.9% in the first quarter, first half of last year, first quarter, first three quarters and full year, respectively.
At the same time, last year, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 35,128 yuan, an average growth of 5.1% in two years after deducting price factors, which was basically synchronized with economic growth. Ming Wenbiao believes that in the face of pressure such as demand contraction, we should continue to do a good job in the "six stability" and "six guarantees" work on the basis of the overall promotion of accurate prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, and stimulate the vitality and development momentum of market players, "China's economy is resilient, the annual average growth rate of 5% to 6% can be maintained, with the transformation of investment-driven to consumption-driven mode and the growth of per capita disposable income of residents, the proportion of added value of the tertiary industry in GDP will continue to rise." ”
(The data in the draft are from the official release materials and the statistical bulletins of various localities over the years)
Editor-in-Charge: Ning Xiwei Photo Editor: Hu Mengxi
Proofreader: Luan Meng