Previously, affected by regulatory policies, the growth rate of housing-related credit slowed down, while the recent release of housing loan lines and the acceleration of lending in many banks have shown obvious signals of loosening mortgages
"China Science and Technology Investment" Long Qiuyue
In the third quarter of 2021, the mortgage interest rates in first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou rose, the amount of housing loans in many banks was urgent, the lending time was postponed to three months to half a year, and even some banks suspended the mortgage loan business, and the phenomenon of "difficulty in lending housing loans" appeared. In contrast, the current bank's mortgage quota is constantly released, and the speed of lending is significantly accelerated. A credit manager of a state-owned bank told the "China Science and Technology Investment" reporter, "In the case of complete application materials, the bank's approval time is about two weeks, and the loan will be released about a week after approval." ”
At the end of 2020, the People's Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Establishing a Management System for the Concentration of Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), which divides banking financial institutions into five grades and puts forward upper limit requirements for the proportion of housing loans in each bank, which will be implemented from January 1, 2021. Under the influence of regulatory policies, banks have taken the initiative to reduce the proportion of real estate loans, and the growth rate of many indicators, including the balance of loans in the real estate industry, has declined.
Mortgage loan approvals have been loosened
In the third quarter of last year, in order to curb overheated real estate transactions, Shanghai and Guangzhou adjusted mortgage interest rates. In July 2021, Shanghai announced an increase in mortgage interest rates, with the adjusted interest rates of 5% and 5.7% for the first and second home mortgages, respectively. As of August 2021, there have been five price increases in the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou during the year, and the interest rates of the first and second home mortgages of most banks are above 5.85% and 6.05% respectively. As of the end of September 2021, the mortgage interest rate in Beijing has remained stable, and the standards of LPR+55bp for the first suite and LPR+105bp for the second suite are still implemented, that is, the interest rate of the first and second suite mortgages is 5.2% and 5.7% respectively.
At the same time, due to the multiple influences of real estate regulation and control policies, major banks tend to strictly examine and approve the source of funds and qualifications of customers applying for housing loans, while reducing the amount of housing loans and slowing down the approval process. Major first-tier cities have appeared "housing loan lending difficulties" phenomenon, housing loan approval time has been extended to 3-6 months.
On September 29, 2021, the central bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly held a real estate finance work forum, convened the heads of 24 major banks across the country to participate in the meeting, the meeting stressed that the financial sector should focus on the goal of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices, and stabilizing expectations", adhere to the positioning that houses are used to live, not to speculate, adhere to the real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy, and continue to implement a long-term real estate mechanism.
Under the strict supervision of the state, the real estate industry is cold, in order to alleviate the situation, in October 2021, the regulatory authorities publicly stated that they would guide financial institutions to meet the reasonable credit needs of housing enterprises and individual home buyers; in December 2021, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission also stressed that at this stage, according to different situations in various places, it is necessary to focus on meeting the demand for first-suite and improved housing mortgages, reasonably issuing real estate development loans and merger loans, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry and the market.
According to the report of the Shell Research Institute, in October 2021, the mainstream first mortgage interest rate in the 90 cities it monitored was 5.73%, and the second set of interest rates was 5.99%, both of which were 1 basis point lower than the previous month, which was the first time that the institution monitored the mortgage interest rate during the year. Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, has publicly stated that this indirectly indicates that the credit environment for residents to buy houses is improving, and it is also the performance of the bottom of the housing credit environment.
Under the influence of the correction of housing loan regulatory policies, the amount of mortgage loans in banks has been fully guaranteed; at the same time, the interest rates of mortgages in some cities have been reduced. Previously, many places had to wait in line for months to approve the loan, and it also began to loosen, and the approval time was significantly shortened.
In Guangzhou, a credit manager of China Construction Bank (601939) told reporters that last year, the amount of housing loans was relatively tight, and the approval of loans needed to wait in line for 3-6 months; in contrast, the current mortgage approval and lending cycle is significantly shortened, and the bank will make approval results for customers in about a week. A real estate agent who was looking for a house in Shell told the "China Science and Technology Investment" reporter, "Now the bank mortgage approval time is about two weeks to a month." I helped a client apply for a mortgage loan from Guangfa Bank a few years ago, and approved the loan in a week. ”
Another lender told reporters that last year, the approval time of the first-hand housing bank in Guangzhou was generally 3-6 months, and the approval and lending time of the second-hand housing bank needed to wait in line for more than 6 months; now, the approval and lending time of the first-hand housing and second-hand housing banks in Guangzhou has been shortened to 2-4 weeks and 3-4 months respectively.
According to the Shell Research Institute report, in December 2021, the average lending cycle of personal housing loans in 103 cities monitored by it was 57 days, 11 days shorter than the previous month. After two months of adjustment, the current lending speed of some urban banks has accelerated, and the lending cycle of more than 80% of cities has been shortened. Among the above 103 cities, about 20% of the urban lending cycle is within 1 month, and about 40% of the urban lending cycle is 1-2 months.
In October-November 2021, for the first time, the central bank listed individual housing loan statistics separately in its monthly financial statistics report. Among them, from October to November, the balance of personal housing loans was 37.7 trillion yuan and 38.1 trillion yuan, respectively; the month increased by 348.1 billion yuan and 401.3 billion yuan respectively; and the increase was 101.3 billion yuan and 53.2 billion yuan respectively over the previous month.
* Personal housing loan statistics released by the central bank for October-November 2021, screenshot from the central bank's official micro
Mortgage growth slowed
According to the Circular, the five financial institutions of banks are Chinese-funded large banks, Chinese-funded medium-sized banks, Chinese-funded small banks and non-county agricultural cooperative institutions, county agricultural cooperative institutions, and village and township banks, and the upper limits of real estate loans are 40%, 27.5%, 22.5%, 17.5% and 12.5%, respectively, and the upper limits of personal housing loans are 32.5%, 20%, 17.5%, 12.5% and 7.5% respectively.
The Notice also points out that at the end of December 2020, if the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans of banking financial institutions exceeds the regulatory requirements by less than 2 percentage points, the transition period for business adjustment shall be two years from the date of implementation of this Notice; if it exceeds the regulatory requirements by 2 percentage points or more, the transition period for business adjustment shall be four years from the date of implementation of this Notice. At present, banks exceeding the standard are still within the rectification period of the concentration of real estate loans.
Recently, CSI Pengyuan Credit Appraisal Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "CSI Pengyuan") issued the "What is the Impact of the New Deal on the Concentration Management of Real Estate Loans on the Banking Industry?" (hereinafter referred to as the "Announcement") pointed out that taking the 39 listed banks listed before 2020 as a sample, as of the end of 2020, 14 banks had exceeded the standard of real estate loan concentration indicators, of which 6 banks accounted for more than the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans.
In the first half of 2021, a number of banks with excessive concentration of real estate loans began to carry out pressure drops, and strived to complete the task during the transition period of business adjustment. The Announcement also pointed out that as of the end of June 2021, the concentration of commercial banks exceeding the standard has improved as a whole. The original 39 listed banks accounted for only 6.47% of public real estate loans, and personal housing mortgage loans accounted for 17.03%. Among the original 39 listed banks, 28 banks showed a certain degree of decline in the concentration of real estate loans, of which the number of banks exceeding the standard fell from 14 at the end of 2020 to 13, and the average proportion of real estate loans fell by 0.46%.
*Concentration of personal housing loans of listed banks, screenshot from the "Announcement" issued by China Securities Pengyuan
A bank market analyst told the "China Science and Technology Investment" reporter that the proportion of housing loans can be reduced by making the denominator larger, but more importantly, it is to increase credit to key emerging areas such as regional small and micro enterprises and manufacturing.
The "2021 Financial Institution Loan Investment Statistical Report" released by the central bank pointed out that as of the end of 2021, the balance of real estate loans was 52.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, down 3.7% from the end of the previous year; a total increase of 3.81 trillion yuan for the whole year, accounting for 19.1% of the increase in loans in the same period, 7.2% lower than the level of the previous year. Among them, the balance of real estate development loans and personal housing loans was 12.01 trillion yuan and 38.32 trillion yuan respectively; respectively, an increase of 0.9% and 11.3% year-on-year, respectively, down 5.2% and 3.3% from the growth rate at the end of the previous year.
Chen Sheng, president of the China Real Estate Data Research Institute, told the "China Science and Technology Investment" reporter, "In the second half of 2021, the real estate loan policy has been adjusted and restored, and the development loans and personal housing loans as a whole are implemented in accordance with the three red lines, and the indicators reflected are all year-on-year decline." The decline in the growth rate of the entire mortgage also reflects the real estate industry in 2021, from a more desired state to a neutral state. ”
Yuan Shuai, deputy secretary-general of the Rural Revitalization and Construction Commission, told reporters that under the strict supervision policies of the three red lines of financing for housing enterprises and the concentration management of bank real estate loans, the overall credit delivery of the real estate industry has slowed down, the growth rate of real estate development loans and personal housing loans has declined rapidly, the structure of bank real estate credit is also changing, the proportion of public real estate loans is relatively stable, the proportion of personal mortgage loans has increased and tends to be stable, the real estate regulation and control "because of the city's policies", personal housing loans have tightened, and non-housing loan violations have been strictly controlled. The regulatory authorities adhere to the implementation of the positioning of "housing and not speculation", adhere to the "stability" as the basic goal of the development of the property market industry, the growth rate of housing loans slows down and falls, and the stability of the property market can go far.