(Translator's note: This article is esplantic writer Kevin Pelton, and the content of this article does not represent the translator's views.) The data in this article is as of February 7, Beijing time. ）
How much help will the arrival of Caris LeVert help the Cavaliers to reach the playoffs for the first time since James left to join the Lakers?
On Sunday, Mingji Woj reported that the Cavaliers sent guard Rubio, whose contract was expiring (who was reimbursed for the season due to a torn cruciate ligament), a first-round pick (lotto protection) and two second-round picks from the Pacers to Le Vere.
The Cavaliers' guard line has been hit hard by injuries, while The addition of LeVert has helped strengthen the rotation of the team's guard line. In addition to Rubio, cavaliers starting shooting guard Colin Sexton was also reimbursed for the season due to knee surgery. Meanwhile, back injuries have plagued All-Star point guard Garland, who has not played since Jan. 30. If the 27-year-old LeVert can be well compatible with Garland, the Cavaliers may choose to keep the former for a long time.
However, this is too costly for the Cavaliers, who not only sent out the 2022 first-round pick (lotto protection), but also the 2022 draft picks from the Rockets (expected to be in the early 30s).
Is it really worth giving away these draft picks for LeVert? What does his transfer mean for the Pacers' future plans? Let's discuss.
Cavaliers: LeVert, 2022 second-round pick (from the Heat)
Trade Rating: C
Among the defenders who are likely to be traded before Thursday's trade deadline, there is unanimous that LeVert is the best candidate for the Cavaliers. Although the Cavaliers should have found a substitute point guard for Garland in the case of Rubio's injury, Rondo has performed quite well, and two-way contract player Goodwin has recently been given a steady playing time, which makes the Cavaliers' demand for a point guard less intense. With uncertainty about Whether Sexton will stay with the Cavaliers for long, and the Cavaliers won't be able to keep Rubio and Garland on the floor at the same time, they need a point guard even more.
Looking at the league-wide tradable point guard, LeVert is probably the ideal and youngest candidate for the Cavaliers. (Divinzenzo, 25, while looking fit and younger, seems unlikely to be traded by the defending champions unless they can swap back for another rotation.) The top player in the trade market, Eric Gordon, is 33 years old, and Norman Powell, who was traded to the Clippers by the Blazers on Friday, is still a year older than Lewell.
While the Cavaliers do have a chance to make a splash in this year's Eastern Conference playoffs, and they can be proud of the league's biggest point difference of 4.3 points per game, they also need to look at the long-term development of the team. Their three core players (Garland, center Jarrett Allen and rookie Evan Mobley) are all 23 and under, so a player in his 30s like Gordon is not in line with the team's development plan.
LeVert's organizational abilities also seemed to be helpful to the Cavaliers. Garland has the ability to catch the ball and shoot, and LeVert can sometimes act as the main ball controller, delivering "shells" to Garland like Rubio, which is undoubtedly a big threat. Breakthrough scoring has always been a major weakness for the Cavaliers, but it is LeVert's strong point.
LeVert, meanwhile, was never a particularly efficient scorer. Because his outside shooting percentage is only average (33 percent from a career three-point shooting percentage), according to data from the data website BBR, none of his true shooting percentages have exceeded the league average since his rookie season. LeVert's true shooting percentage this season (95 percent of the league average) is already the highest he's had since his rookie season.
Conversely, LeVert's value is largely due to his lower possession than the league average. But that's not what the Cavaliers really need, at least when Garland is on the floor. He'll be more efficient when Le Ver has a lot of ball possession. From this perspective, for the Cavaliers, Le Vere led the second team best after Garland came off. The Cavaliers are likely to want Garland and LeVert to end the game at the same time at key moments to better cope with the opponent's small lineup.
Regardless of LeVert's role as a cavalier, his addition strengthens the cavaliers. With two rotating players being reimbursed for the season, cavaliers management is working very well. But the question is whether it's worth trading two draft picks this year that could be in the top 35 for the sake of a lineup upgrade. The Cavaliers are likely to make the playoffs this season, which means they will definitely lose the first-round draft pick in this trade, and if the season ends today, the draft pick from the Rockets in this trade will be the 33rd pick.
LeVert's salary this season and next season are $17.5 million and $18.8 million, which is in line with his strength. The Cavaliers' replacement of the injured Rubio for LeVert to play this season and the ability to renew his contract early next season allow the Cavaliers to get some value from it, but is it really worth a first-round pick and a second-round pick in top of the line? I don't think it's worth it. Rather than that, I would prefer the knight to sacrifice something in terms of transaction value.
Cavaliers fans will remember me saying something similar, the Cavaliers also lost a first-round pick last year to get Allen, and Allen got a big contract that matched his strength after becoming a restricted free agent. I know I was wrong last year because Aaron has improved so much that he's become a veritable all-star candidate (I chose Aaron as an all-star replacement in a Lowe Post podcast), and he's proven that a five-year, $100 million contract is really a cabbage price. It remains to be seen whether LeVert can achieve similar success with the Cavaliers and make the team the winner in this deal.
The Pacers get: Rubio, 2022 first-round picks (lotto protection), 2022 second-round picks (from the Rockets) and 2027 second-round picks (from jazz).
Pacer: A
Instead, the Pacers should be happy about the rewards he gets for trading LeVert, as he has never found his footing in the Pacers. In Harden's four-way deal last season, the Pacers sent Oladipo to Get LeVert, who was found to have a cancerous tumor in his left kidney during a post-trade checkup and was unable to play. He was absent for two months after the surgery.
By the time LeVert returned, the Pacers' winning percentage had fallen below 50 percent, and the team's winning percentage has never been higher than 50 percent since. They defeated the Hornets in the first game of the playoffs and were defeated by the Wizards two days later. Despite the coach being replaced by Carlisle this season, the team's situation hasn't improved, and now it seems that the Pacers have no hope of making it into the playoffs.
The Pacers see rookie Chris Duarte as the team's future point guard, so they're ready for Le Ver's departure. The Pacers lost their own second-round pick in the trade that sent Brogdon to the Bucks, but they should still have three draft picks ahead of the 35th pick.
Before the trade deadline, the Pacers can still trade other players. Woj reported that the Pacers continue to negotiate trades for starting big man Sabonis and Turner, who may be more valuable than LeVert.
Similarly, the Pacers have created enough salary space that they could be an active team in the free agent market this summer. If LeVert's contract is on, the Pacers' salary is expected to be just around the pay cap. And now, they should have $18 million to sign other players. This allows them to compete for restricted free agents who are not interested in other teams with salary space, or to take over contracts for teams that want to reduce salary pressure, thereby taking back draft picks.
From a value point of view, the Pacers were undoubtedly profitable in the trade to trade Oladipo back to LeVert. When the Rockets traded Oladipo to the Heat again before last year's trade deadline, they were only offered a contract that was expiring and swaps with the Nets draft pick. If the season ends today, the swap wouldn't be of much use because the Heat are ranked higher than the Nets.
Original: Kevin Pelton
Compilation: Can't hold the basket at all