1. The performance forecast indicates that the performance of the game sector is positive and good, the release of the version number can be expected, and the new game is driven by the launch
According to the performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2021 released by some A-share companies: Perfect World Q3 is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 530-550 million yuan, a significant improvement from the loss of 207 million yuan in Q2, or exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the gradual entry of "Dream New Immortals" into the profit cashing period, in addition to the company's "Magic Tower" and other blockbuster games are actively promoting; Gigabit Q3 is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 286-307 million yuan after deduction of non-deduction, an increase of 40% -50% year-on-year, and Moore Manor", as of the end of Q3, has not changed much from the end of Q2, or has accumulated strength for subsequent performance. Overall, the A-share game sector Q3 performance or there is a significant repair, and the plate follow-up or will usher in two catalysts: 1, a new round of version number or issuance, thereby boosting market sentiment, we judge that August, September did not issue a new version number or related to the landing of minors anti-addiction, for the stage of suspension of distribution; 2, new games have been launched and the flow is expected to exceed expectations, according to gamma data, NetEase's blockbuster game "Harry Potter: Magic Awakening" after the launch of the first month of the first month after the launch of the first month or more than 1.1 billion yuan, It shows that the head game still has a strong incremental market creation effect, and in October, tencent's head game IP "League of Legends" adapted mobile game was launched, or further brought incremental users to the game market, and new games that will be launched in the future such as Perfect World 'Magic Tower' may also benefit from it, and the flow after the launch is expected to exceed expectations. Based on the trend of good performance and the fact that the valuation is still in the bottom range since 2018, we continue to recommend increasing the allocation of the game sector, focusing on Perfect World, Gigabit, Yaoji Technology, Heartbeat Company, and Dreamworld, and the beneficiary targets include Tencent Holdings, NetEase-S, 37 Interactive Entertainment, Shengtian Network, Electric Soul Network, and Kaiying Network.
2. The curtain of "Double 11" has been opened, focusing on pre-sale data and focusing on the positive changes in the e-commerce industry chain of Douyin and Kuaishou
In the past week, Taobao, Tmall, JD.com, Kuaishou, Douyin and other platforms have successively announced the rules of the 2021 "Double 11" activity, opening the curtain of "Double 11", and pre-sales generally opened on October 20. From the perspective of activity discounts, Tmall's cross-store full reduction in 2021 is greater than the "full 300 minus 40" in 2020, and the drive for GMV is worth looking forward to. The Douyin E-commerce Festival will officially start on October 27, supporting brands through official subsidies of 10 billion. Kuaishou continues to focus on the "116 Quality Shopping Festival" and increases support for waist anchors and platforms. Driven by the continuous improvement of the closed loop of Douyin and Kuaishou e-commerce, the conversion efficiency and take rate of short video and live broadcast traffic to GMV may continue to improve, and the pull effect on generation operators and MCNs may be more obvious. We recommend that based on the "Double 11" in 2021, pay attention to the positive changes in the industrial chain of Douyin and Kuaishou e-commerce, lay out flexible performance or larger head generation operators and MCNs, and focus on recommending Kuaishou-W, Worth Buying, and OneNet One Creation, benefiting from Saturday and Tianxia Show.
3. Vocational education ushers in policy encouragement and support, and the head effect may be more obvious
According to Xinhua News Agency reported on October 12, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of Modern Vocational Education", which proposes to "encourage listed companies and leading enterprises in the industry to hold vocational education, and encourage all kinds of enterprises to participate in vocational education according to law", we judge that the field of vocational education may usher in more supporting support, and the leading companies in various subdivisions are expected to further increase their share based on policy support and brand first-mover advantages. The vocational education sector focuses on recommending action education, and the beneficiary targets include Chuanzhi Education, Zhonggong Education, Kaiyuan Education, China Oriental Education, New Higher Education Group, etc.
Risk warning: The game was delayed or the flow did not meet expectations; the "Double 11" e-commerce platform GMV was lower than expected.
This article originated from the Financial Circle Network