This article is from the WeChat public account: Growing up in the composition (ID: lvshicai8), author: Yang Sheng, the original title: "The "421 formation" at the New Year reunion is the most eye-catching, the ordinary heart under the aging of the fewer children", the title picture comes from: Visual China
This year's New Year, I did not return to my hometown of Gansu for the New Year, and stayed in Hunan. Changsha City has been deserted a lot these days. As in other big cities, the population in the city decreases a lot during the New Year's Festival, because a large number of "city generations" will return to their hometowns in the countryside, especially during the New Year. Most of the people who return to the countryside are young people, there are more young people out of the city, and the elderly who are left behind are relatively more, and these days they go to the supermarket to shop, and it is obvious that the proportion of the elderly has increased.
In the community, I came across several "421 formation" families, it was the New Year, as an only child, the two children took over their parents, plus the children in the family, a total of 7 people. Although the scene of the reunion is happy and harmonious, the family structure with more heads than Qingsi is inevitably emotional and even worrying. If one or even a few of them have a big problem, the small two have to take care of the old, but also have to take care of the small, the key is that their work does not dare to slacken off, and the wretchedness of the other is a headache.
The family is the smallest unit of the state, and when countless families are in this situation, the whole country is basically in this situation. Of course, because of the high birth rate in some places, especially in the vast rural areas, these young people dilute the proportion of the elderly, so that the "421" population formation of the family may not be the most mainstream family structure in the whole society.
However, in the future, with the influence of farmers' "difficulty in marrying wives" and the decline of rural education, when the rural areas as a "population reservoir" no longer have great fertility potential, and then superimpose the "4" in the "421 population formation" is rapidly aging, and a deeply aging country is accelerating to us.
The crisis of population aging has been discussed by many people, and everyone is right. This article does not discuss crises, but discusses something else.
First, the whole people have just woken up from a dream on the population issue
Regarding China's "aging crisis", the past two years have suddenly become the focus of public opinion, giving people a feeling of "waking up like a dream", it seems that in the past few decades, everyone has been worried about the problem of "more Chinese", and in the past two years, this worry has suddenly switched to the problem of "new population reduction" and even "fewer people in the future".
This is a complete change in the "coordinate system" of the evaluation Chinese, that is, from the "total population theory" to the "population structure theory". In the past, they were talking about excess and reducing the number of people, but now they are suddenly saying that the structure is unreasonable, there are too many elderly people, and the newborn population is too small. This change is a little fast, so fast that people are a little confused, as if yesterday was still advocating "thin for beauty", overnight the context suddenly changed, to "fat as beautiful", and to "thin" all kinds of criticism.
Regarding the "awakening of the whole people on the population issue", the change in the remarks of a super big V microblog in the field of public opinion is the most representative. In 2011, the big V was adamantly opposed to the proposals of some scholars to liberalize fertility, believing that these scholars were "talking nonsense" in the clouds.
In 2015, the big V still believed that the mainland should try its best to reduce its population.
In May 2021, the big V began to advise on how to get an average young couple to have three children.
By January 2022, the big V finally acknowledged that negative population growth would have a variety of negative economic and social impacts.
The sudden change in the demographic situation is understandable to the ordinary people, but in the field of social science research, between "think tanks" large and small, and among countless "people of insight" who have designed a century-old and millennium development strategy for the country, it has also caused a wave of surprise that is higher than a wave.
These manifestations on the population issue fully reflect the low level of social science research on the mainland, the rarity of "everyone" with foresight, and the fact that speculators who are rudder are everywhere. Many so-called master-level think tank elites are nothing more than people who shout out speculative words of "more water and more noodles, more noodles and more water", and it is impossible for them to predict how much water is allocated to how many faces in advance, so there is no need to expect them to plan the future for the country and the nation in a forward-looking manner, and they cannot see the future.
The population problem is actually a "hard science", how many people have been born, how many people can be born in the future, how many people have become the elderly at what time, what is the total number of elderly people in a certain period of time, and the lessons of the population development of other countries, etc., are all realistically placed there, as long as they are seriously studied, the population theory circles should have a correct prejudgment of the current and future population situation of the mainland, and "experts" do not need to be "inexplicably surprised" with the general public at this time, let alone have no reason to take the lead in creating anxiety. Even concoct panic.
It should be emphasized that the big V I took in the screenshot above is just a media person, he is not a population expert, and his dream is understandable. What is incomprehensible is that it is difficult to forgive the so-called population experts and professional institutions that take taxpayers' money and specialize in population issues to make outrageous population projections and use these erroneous data to consult the government and influence policies. Zhai Zhenwu, president of the former Chinese Society, predicted in 2014 that with the release of the second child, the peak annual birth population on the mainland will reach 49.95 million, as evidenced by his paper.
Now that the country has not only fully liberalized the second child, but also the third child, Zhai Zhenwu predicted that the peak population of 49.95 million per year has not arrived, and the newborn population in 2021 has dropped to 10.62 million, almost only 1/4 of the experts predicted.
With the blindness of high-powered demographers and think tanks, coupled with the momentum of the media, the whole people are still worried about the total population surplus in the critical historical period when the population structure should be paid attention to. It wasn't until the last two years that the newborn population fell to the early 10 million to "wake up like a dream."
When I woke up from a dream, the situation was critical.
Second, population policy does not matter whether it is right or wrong, it is just the impetus of the common consciousness of all people
What I want to say is that people are not too surprised, the status quo is an inevitable choice of history, the result of all of us working together.
Ever since P. Ehrlich published The Population Explosion in 1968 and G. Taylor published The End of the World in 1970, the "Population Explosion Theory" has terrorized all of us, all of whom feel that due to excessive population growth, the earth will be overcrowded, which will cause resource depletion, environmental and atmospheric pollution, and accelerated warming of the earth.
I remember around 1996, in a high school politics class, the teacher asked me to speak on the population issue, and I was very enthusiastic, saddened by the overpopulation of the mainland and the world, and I could only say that I was superfluous. In those years, we were all concerned about the problem of overpopulation, and it was not until the last two years that the newborn population fell sharply that we began to pay attention to the problem of demographics.
Man's understanding is always limited. The current state of the population problem is the result of the limitations of all of us' understanding. Of course, more importantly, we have no choice. The current and future situation is a historical necessity, and there is no need to be distressed or panic-inducing.
Why? For as long as I can remember, I know a saying: "China feeds 22% of the world's population with 7% of the world's arable land." This ratio of population to land was, of course, many years ago, and now the population of Chinese mainland has dropped to 18.1% of the world's population (2021.5.11 statistics, now the global population is more than 7.8 billion, and there are statistics of 7.6 billion). If we do not implement the family planning policy and always maintain a population ratio of 22% of the world, then the total population of the mainland today should be 1.802 billion people, about 400 million more than today.
1.8 billion people is inevitably too much, so in the past our population policy must focus on total control first, which is also correct. Just because the problem of population structure will be prominent in the future, we should not completely negate the past policy of controlling the total population. Our intervention in the total population is to make this 9.6 million square kilometers of land able to support the huge population that lives on it. The basic survival problems of 1.4 billion people, such as food, clothing, housing, and transportation, are the biggest problems.
At present, we are in the most peaceful period after World War II, we enjoy the dividends of free trade after joining the WTO, and we are free to allocate enough materials from the world, especially energy and food, to eat, wear, live and travel. At present, we are living very comfortably, so we are not aware of the tension between population and resources.
But if the world were once again plunged into the chaos of World War I and World War II, and we could not import any energy or food, without any external supply, would the land beneath our feet still feed 1.4 billion people, or even 1.8 billion people? Will there be peace forever in the future? Won't the planet warm again? Will new and more terrible viruses not appear again?
On the land beneath our feet, what is the number of people who can support themselves?
What people need most for survival are two things, food and energy, which can be said to be equally important and closely related. Probably most of us think that food is the most important, and I always thought so, but after chatting with my old mother and father the year before, I had a new understanding of this issue.
My mother told me about the plight of not having coal, picking up firewood, and not being able to cook. In the winter, a large pot of water should be boiled to cook batter for the whole family, but when the water is boiled to 70% or 80%, there is no firewood, and a hungry batter cannot be eaten in the mouth, and it is necessary to have diarrhea when eating raw. There is no way for the whole family to go to the surrounding fields to pick up a little bit of straw and grass roots, but the whole village is picking up this way, the field has long been shaved, it is difficult to pick up a little, the whole family can eat this batter.
For the next meal, there was firewood, and the whole family carried a basket on their backs, took a long stick in their hands, went down to the ravine, and quickly swept every piece of land in the mountain with a long stick, in order to beat down the hay leaves attached to the ground. Carrying these dried grass leaves mixed with mud home can be cooked on the fire and can be burned for warmth. But the whole village did this, and in the autumn and winter, the land in the mountains was plundered at least three times, and the mountains were shaved bare, and even the grass could not be seen.
No coal. Because there are no coal mines nearby, no cars and tractors to transport coal, trains have never been seen, there is no electricity in the village, and it is impossible to have gas. Father and the young people in the village together pulled the scooter over the mountains and mountains across the city and across the province to pull coal far away, the wind and food camp for half a month to pull a scooter back to the village, each family can not share much, this bit of coal can not solve the problem of survival.
When it comes to farming, my father said that it was not that there was no land, but there were also twenty or thirty acres of land in the family, that is, the land was barren and there was not much grain to grow. I had always thought that my ancestors were poor because of the exploitation of landlords, but later I learned that there were no landlords in our village. My father said that an acre of land (667 square meters) worked hard for a year, and when the wind and rain were smooth, he would also harvest dozens of catties of wheat. There is no fertilizer, and the land does not grow much crops. The family of five or six people planted so much land, got up early and worked in the dark for a year, but the grain they grew could not fill their stomachs.
Now, it is still the land of that year, but one acre of land can grow seven or eight hundred catties of wheat, and the yield of corn can be close to two thousand catties. How to increase production? Use fertilizer! Where does fertilizer come from? Mainly from oil and gas.
The authoritative article on the China Internet sponsored by the China Association for Science and Technology said: "Fertilizer is the use of oil and natural gas as raw materials for industrial synthesis of ammonia, and further production of ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulfate, urea and other important nitrogen fertilizers, providing important nitrogen elements for plant growth." Coupled with the petroleum extracts in food and medicine, a careful calculation, a person's life to "eat" 551 kg of oil. ”
In addition, this article also said that in a person's life, he must "wear" 290 kg of oil, "live" off 3790 kg of oil, and "walk" off 3838 kg of oil.
Since 2021, the price of natural gas in the international market has soared, because natural gas accounts for 80% of the variable cost of nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing, which has led to a decline in fertilizer production and a sharp price increase in the world, which has affected global food production. It can be seen that global food production has increased, and seed technology has contributed, but the biggest contribution is actually fertilizer.
After knowing the basic relationship between energy and food and survival, we can look back and see that in 1982, when family planning was established as the basic national policy of the mainland and written into the constitution, the population of the mainland was 1.0165 billion, and such a large population needed enough food and energy to feed it. At that time, both the food supply and the energy supply were extremely tight, and if the population was not controlled, the population would grow by 800 million after 40 years, so how could the people of this country still live?
Don't say that Chinese don't like to have children, there are several families that have recently exploded on the Internet and have given birth to seven or eight children, and the net red hot mothers of seven children have repeatedly brushed the screen. I was deeply shocked to meet two lads at a dinner party in the middle of last year, one with five children and one with three children. If family planning is not practiced, the mainland population is absolutely very inflated.
Since the mainland became the world's largest net oil importer in 2016, its oil imports have reached a new level every year, importing 380 million tons of crude oil in 2016, 420 million tons of crude oil in 2017, 462 million tons of crude oil in 2018, 506 million tons of crude oil in 2019, 542 million tons of crude oil in 2020, and 513 million tons of crude oil in 2021. In the first half of 2020, China's dependence on oil has increased to 73%.
Source: Database of China Commercial Industry Research Institute
In recent years, the import of natural gas on the mainland has also grown rapidly. As more southerners use natural gas for heating, presumably the gap between natural gas production and demand will become larger and larger, and imports will grow faster.
The higher the standard of living of the people, the more energy is consumed. 1.4 billion Chinese has built a well-off society, is moving towards a high-income country, the future of the mainland's demand for oil and natural gas and other energy will be more and more, from the perspective of energy supply, can we afford the high-quality life of more than 1.8 billion people?
In terms of grain, China's grain self-sufficiency rate has reached more than 95%, and after long-term and unremitting efforts, the rice bowl of Chinese is firmly in the hands of Chinese. However, in order to ensure that the people do not go hungry, the country really works hard, the mainland for many years of grain production is the world's first, grain reserves are the world's first, grain imports are also the world's first, if it is not because of the huge population pressure and survival pressure, why work so hard?
Moreover, even if there are so many world firsts, we must also see two points: first, food production mainly relies on chemical fertilizers, and fertilizers mainly rely on oil and natural gas, while the oil and gas continent relies heavily on imports; second, in recent years, the mainland's grain imports are also increasing, of which grain imports in 2021 have exceeded 150 million tons.
It can be seen that in the supply of energy and grain, which are closely related to the survival of the people, the mainland's dependence on foreign countries is quite high. That is to say, the mainland's 1.4 billion people have a high degree of dependence on foreign countries in terms of survival resources, which is always a tight string of survival, if there is chaos like World War II, how can the Chinese people survive? Therefore, leaving aside the total population and only talking about the demographic structure, that is, putting aside the existential crisis and only talking about the comfort of the elderly, which is shallow and short-sighted.
To sum up, the family planning policy of controlling the total population in the past few years is correct, and it is also the choice that our country has to make and the road that it has to take. It is just that the family planning policy was withdrawn too late by the misguided population experts who deceived the world.
Third, people are worried about the decline in the number of new populations, but they are actually worried about demographic imbalance
In the past two years, the country's newborn population has repeatedly reached a new low, bringing people general anxiety. However, some so-called experts see the wind and steer, and use some sensational rhetoric to stimulate the nerves of the masses, the most typical, such as the Chinese mouth shrinks so much, the Chinese nation will not exist in another hundred years, and so on. This is utterly ignorant rhetoric.
In fact, people's attitudes on the population issue are often contradictory, and the total population is too large, which is almost the feeling of each of us. The need for the mainland to reduce its population is almost unanimous. Therefore, there is no such thing as the crisis of everyone not having children and finally destroying the country and extinction, and it is absurd to talk about the extinction of the country and the extinction of the species when there are about ten million new births every year. What everyone is really worried about is actually the problem of demographic imbalance, that is, in the next few decades, there will be more and more elderly people, fewer and fewer young people, and the society will increasingly present an inverted pyramid-shaped demographic structure, which is not conducive to economic development and will also cause difficulties in the elderly.
Therefore, what people are really worried about is that our good days can still continue, and whether we can still afford to retire decently when we are old.
For these two issues, it is clear that the prospects are not optimistic. The country's policies seem complicated and many people can't think clearly, but the home is the smallest country, and we can reduce "state affairs" to "family affairs". Because the retired elderly in the whole society need the in-service labor force of the whole society to support, after turning the country into a family affair, for a large number of "421 formation" families, it can be seen that the four elderly people in the family need to be fed by two small families who are working, and one person raises two elderly people on average, because the enlargement to the whole society is like this.
When the four elderly people are getting older, unable to go to work to create value, still have to see a doctor and take medicine, and still need to be cared for, the burden of the four elderly people's pension is very heavy. With the passage of time, in another twenty or thirty years, when the two little ones also retire, it is assumed that there are still two of the four old people above, and at this time the four old people will have to be supported by the third generation of this person, and one person will raise four old people. This prospect is more frightening.
Most people may not be worried about the decline in the total population of the mainland, after all, the land area of the United States is about the same as the mainland (9.37 million square kilometers), but the population is only 333 million, not even 1/4 of the mainland, but the economic strength and comprehensive national strength of the United States have dominated the world for nearly a hundred years, so maintaining the largest population is not a necessary condition for the country to be strong.
If Chinese can "soft land" and return to the 500 million people in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, it should not affect the survival and development of the Chinese nation on this planet. And the population to reduce to 500 million, I am afraid it will take more than a hundred years, and what the world will look like in a hundred years, who knows?
Then, the focus of the population problem is economic development and pension. However, the total population reduction and the imbalance of population structure are complementary, there is no structural reduction in the total amount, and the imbalance of population structure is the inevitable result of the reduction of the total population. Since starting from the ratio of survival resources, we did not make a big mistake in controlling the total population in the past, then, at present and in the future, we will inevitably have to bear the demographic imbalance caused by the control of the total amount, that is, the problem of super aging.
Therefore, there is no need to create anxiety on the population question at once, not to completely negate yesterday according to today's current situation, and to remember that yesterday's practice has yesterday's reasons, which are determined by history and yesterday's situation. Blaming the past will not help, the key is that we must find a way out for tomorrow.
At present, because of the coercion of public opinion, people are too panicked on the population issue, in fact, there is no need, the day is going to rain the woman to marry, calmly deal with it, there is always a way, nothing more than a survival problem, to Chinese the resilience of survival, this is not a big problem.
Fourth, jump out of practical difficulties to lay out the major changes that have not occurred in a hundred years of population decline
The downward trend of the total number of Chinese in the future is irreversible, and it is the result of our rational pursuit for more than forty years, and there is nothing to criticize and panic about. The question now and in the future is how to alleviate the demographic imbalance in the process of total population decline, and how to achieve a "soft landing" of Chinese.
Obviously, there is no way to reverse the demographic imbalance. The demographic structure is formed after a long period of time, so the optimization of the structure cannot be solved overnight, so the current panic is useless, and it is the way to deal with it with peace of mind and not to be anxious and confident in the future.
Since the decline in the total population is irreversible and the inverted pyramid structure of the age of the population is irreversible, we should have a major change in various policies and be fully prepared for the transformation of Chinese society from "expansionary" to "contracting"
After 80 years, that is, by the end of this century, most of the 1.4118 billion people will disappear, and in these 80 years, if the annual new population remains at 10 million, it will be 800 million in 80 years. Of course, everyone knows that after the population enters the contraction period, its inertia will be very large, 800 million is impossible, a 20% discount, then, after 2100, the Chinese mouth can maintain more than 600 million is very good, even if 700 million, that is also half of the current total population. At least 700 million people will disappear in 80 years, and this population shrinkage will be a serious blow to all aspects of society.
From expansion to contraction of the population, this will be the biggest change in the "great change that has not occurred in a hundred years" and is the core of all changes. So we can't continue our long-standing expansionist policies. The expansion of infrastructure, the construction of primary schools, middle schools and universities, the expansion of commercial housing, the expansion of commercial buildings, etc., should enter the end, can not be built, do not build again, because the construction loan is the future pension money, the future pension money are more than the population demand of the reinforced concrete, the future is a heavy burden on the future.
We must abandon the idea of vigorously engaging in infrastructure construction once the economy declines for many years, the previous construction was to give the future savings and development potential, and now, when the infrastructure construction has basically met the needs of society, if it is only to improve the growth rate of GDP and increase employment, we will continue to vigorously engage in infrastructure construction, which will undoubtedly put a heavy shackle on the future. The newly built infrastructure cannot be fully utilized, and a large amount of borrowing needs to be repaid in the future, what if the social wealth is spent in the future pension?
Therefore, we must jump out of the practical difficulties to lay out the major changes that have not occurred in the past century of population decline, and all walks of life must plan in advance, formulate the development path under the situation of population contraction, abandon the expansion thinking, use refined management and scientific and technological upgrading to promote the development of productive forces, and gradually transition to the path of development in the contraction. We must understand that no matter how difficult it is now, I am afraid that there will be no difficulty in the future, and all policies must leave room for the future.
Fifth, comprehensively reform the pension system and correct the impact of some groups on the birth rate of too good old-age life
The rapid economic development of the mainland in the past 20 years has given young people, especially young people in their twenties and thirties, an illusion that society is born so beautiful and will continue to be beautiful. These young people see the comfortable pension life of most of the urban elderly, especially the rich pension life of minorities, they feel that they do not marry or have children, raise a small pet for a lifetime, and have a national pension to raise when they are old, how beautiful.
I think this unsustainable beauty is misleading for young people, and this misdirection is also one of the root causes of increasing fertility.
Why is it that the current rich pension of the elderly in some cities is misleading for young people?
Because the pension of some groups is too high, in Changsha, a second-tier city with a per capita disposable income of only 51,500 yuan in 2020, I have met the elderly with pensions of more than 10,000 yuan for many months, some 12,000, and 14,000. Seven or eight years ago, I met two old people in Guangxi on the train, and each of them had a monthly pension of more than 10,000 yuan.
To be honest, if you can still get a pension of about twice the average salary of the society, then the old age life is too comfortable, if I can have such a treatment when I am old, I am still worried about a woolen thread? If young people in their twenties and thirties can be treated like this when they are old, then what kind of marriage and children will they marry? How much trouble, keep a pet every day to go out hi is, a lifetime is a good day.
But we all know that this beauty is not sustainable, and this illusion must be corrected as soon as possible, otherwise the fertility rate will not increase.
Why is this wonderful pension unsustainable?
I wrote an article last year titled "380 million new retirees will be added in the next 15 years, no money for the elderly?" Perhaps the pension of the elderly in rural areas can inspire us", the article calculates according to public data, and the number of retired elderly people who will receive pensions by 2035 will be close to 500 million. Therefore, it is concluded that the current pension system is certainly unsustainable. When the post-80s retirement is completed in 2049, the pension situation may be worse.
Our country is not rich before getting old, in the future completely rely on the support of the national pension to let hundreds of millions of elderly people live a dignified and worry-free pension life, the amount of funds needed is probably astronomical, where does this money come from?
The pension system designed in the industrial era is based on the unlimited expansion of the population. It assumes that the number of people is growing in a positive pyramid shape, and the number of new laborers at the bottom is more than the number of people who need to be pensioned at the top, so that if an old man needs 5,000 yuan for the pension in January, there are 5 workers who each pay 1,000 yuan per month, which is just enough for the old man to receive. And these 5 workers are old, and 25 workers need to pay pensions to ensure that the retirement quality of these 5 people is not lower than that of the first old man.
Once the population expansion is less than expected, the current pension system is immediately unsustainable. Even if the amount of contributions increases, in the face of the inverted pyramid structure of population shrinkage, insufficient pensions are inevitable consequences. In this case, it is difficult for pensions to be "open source", and too heavy pension collection will be a heavy burden on workers and is not conducive to economic development. Then, there is only pension "throttling", I hope to reform as soon as possible, rich pensioners can not afford to support.
Sixth, to encourage childbearing, we need to emancipate our minds
Obviously, the marriage rate in the whole society is getting lower and lower, the divorce rate is getting higher and higher, and the unmarried population is getting larger and larger. In this case, it is not right to tie fertility to marriage tightly. A woman, whether she has a lover or not, whether she is married or not, should not prevent her from having children.
It may sound like an outrageous claim, but it's actually very relevant. I remember reading a report a few years ago, a Tianjin woman, because the marriage is not smooth, was hurt by a man, she has a dead heart for love, but she wants to be a mother, want to have a child. Her simple wish has encountered many obstacles, some from her parents and family, some from friends and colleagues, especially from the family planning department, which makes her almost unable to move. Fortunately, she bravely went forward, and finally had her own baby through IVF, fulfilling her mother's dream.
Nowadays, there are more and more elderly leftover women in the whole society, and the number of elderly leftover women in first- and second-tier cities is 100,000, and this data is still rapidly expanding. Marriage has almost become an option for a few. In this situation, the relevant departments should be pragmatic, should quickly and comprehensively open up the fertility channels of single women, should give and strengthen the various rights of single women in childbirth, increase economic subsidies, and eliminate moral pressure.
The goal of encouraging fertility should not be "three children for a couple", but "three children for one woman". Women are born, the state raises, and the rights and obligations to produce and raise children are gradually separated from legal marriage, and efforts must be made to reverse the phenomenon that too many women have lost the opportunity to have children due to bad feelings. This is the ultimate way to increase fertility.
At this point, the Western countries have long been ahead of us. Fertility rates in the Nordic countries in recent years can be said to be mainly sustained by single mothers.
In our country, people of insight have long put forward the idea of unbinding childbirth and marriage, but a consensus has not yet been formed, hoping to emancipate the mind and release it at an early date.
What the country needs is the newborn population, not the number of legal couples, so it is necessary to grasp the main contradiction and go straight to the main goal. On the issue of fertility, it is not necessary to have both children and moral unity, which is contrary to the current social situation. The policy should pursue "so that every womb that wants to have children will not be wasted."
In addition, it is necessary to strengthen fertility education and fertility promotion for college students. In 2022, the number of college graduates will reach 10.2 million, which is almost the same as the 10.62 million new population in 2021, and it can be said that the vast majority of young people have been organized by the state through colleges and universities.
At present, many colleges and universities are still strictly prohibiting college students from falling in love, the fertility situation is so severe, and the task of encouraging childbearing is so urgent, while colleges and universities that control tens of millions of young people are still prohibiting young people from falling in love. It is recommended that the Ministry of Education attach importance to the construction of marriage and childbirth courses, clearly advocate college students to fall in love, and provide support for college students' marriage and childbirth in terms of credit reform, scholarship evaluation, accommodation arrangements and other aspects.
Employers can take care of married and childbearing students when recruiting fresh graduates, and first-tier cities can give more points to married and childbearing people when the points are settled.
The government can come up with a large number of low-cost housing for married and child-bearing college graduates, which will form some temptation for rural youth who are born in the countryside and eager to take root in the city.
Some people may feel that this is the end of the world, but a person can work for decades, can use a lifetime to learn, but there are only a few years of love and babybirth, and there is nothing wrong with encouraging the birth of a baby in the best years of young people.
Such fertility incentives should also be provided to migrant workers.
A more important point is that our propaganda department must be vigilant and resolutely punish those media that often provoke relations between men and women and induce women to become unmarried and infertile. The public opinion position is the most important, it can be said that we have lost the right to speak of public opinion to exhort young people to marry and have children normally, not to mention the anti-traditional remarks that are everywhere on the Internet, even if it is a university classroom, encouraging girls to marry and have children is a high-pressure line, which teacher dares to say these topics, it is likely to be stalled, either to be reported, or to be badly evaluated. I've lost many times.
Therefore, encouraging fertility is a systematic project, and our policy of encouraging fertility still has not grasped the key points and has not been implemented. We must emancipate our minds, take a little bigger steps, be more affordable, have fewer apologists talk a little, curb the "female fist" remarks a little, and make great efforts to encourage fertility, so that the decline in the newborn population will not be too rapid.
But again, the total population decline is irreversible, and the demographic situation cannot be optimized in the short term. Or focus on the change of pension policy, and plan for the future pension of a huge number of elderly people. Rich pensioners are difficult to sustain, "low consumption of pension" is the way out, so that the countryside to play an important role in the future pension is the way out.
My parents' monthly pension of 103 yuan can also live, so the funds needed to ensure basic survival will not be very large, and we have nothing to panic about. Paying the price in China's "soft landing of population" may be the historical mission of our generations. That being the case, go ahead.
This article is from the WeChat public account: Growing up in the composition (ID: lvshicai8), author: Yang Sheng
This content is the author's independent view and does not represent the position of Tiger Sniff. Unauthorized reproduction is not permitted, please contact [email protected] for authorization matters
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