The first feast of this year's movie was officially launched on the first day of the Chinese New Year.
According to Maoyan data, from the beginning of the New Year to 13:00 on the second day of the New Year, the box office of the Spring Festival in the 37 hours has reached 2.244 billion yuan, and the box office of the first day of the New Year has reached 1.494 billion yuan, with a total of 525,000 shows, refreshing the record of single-day performances in the Chinese film market. "Chosin Lake's Water gate Bridge" topped the list with 981 million at the box office, and "This Killer Is Not Calm", "Four Seas", and "Miracle Stupid Child" ranked second, third, and fourth, and also exceeded 270 million at the box office.
In addition to the top four films competing this year, this year's Spring Festival file also has "Sniper" and IP animation films such as Bear Haunting, Happy Sheep, and Little Tiger Dun. Before the Spring Festival, the pre-sale box office has exceeded 1 billion yuan.
As of 13:00 on February 2, the Spring Festival new film box office list Data source: Maoyan data
Judging from the movies released, this year's Spring Festival lineup is very luxurious.
In the director's column, there are elderly seniors such as Chen Kaige, Xu Ke, Lin Chaoxian, and Zhang Yimou, as well as han Han, Wen Muye and other rookies. In terms of actors, Wu Jing, Shen Teng, Yi Yanqianxi, Liu Haoran and other acting skills and box office responsibilities are listed.
The Spring Festival file has always been a must for the film industry, especially in the sluggish environment of the film and television industry in recent years, the boost brought by the Spring Festival file is naturally targeted by more film and television capital.
Looking back at the spring festival file in the past 10 years, from the box office of "Journey to the West" breaking 1 billion, to "Mermaid", "Detective Chinatown 2" breaking 3 billion, and then to "Hello, Li Huanying" creating a box office performance of 5.414 billion, every year is a leap in quantity.
But on the other hand, the concentration of the Spring Festival box office is also intensifying. Taking 2021 as an example, the two movies "Hello, Li Huanying" and "Detective Chinatown 3" accounted for 80% of the box office of the entire Spring Festival file. This year, a number of high-quality films will be released at the same time, and the situation of high box office concentration may change.
However, from the perspective of the overall film market throughout the year, the "Matthew effect" of the industry is still intensifying. According to Yien data, the number of newly released movies in 2021 reached 554, 59 films that reached the box office of 100 million, and only 3 films that broke 2 billion, but contributed 35% of the box office.
To a certain extent, the film appeal at the waist is showing a weak trend. However, if a film industry wants to develop steadily and sustainably, there is hope for profit at the waist, so as to stimulate the orderly development of the entire industry chain.
At present, the development of the Chinese film market still has a long way to go, which is not a short Spring Festival slot can be maintained.
01 37 hours exceeded 2.244 billion yuan
In the current 2022 Spring Festival file, which is in full swing, among the 8 films released, the sister article of "Chosin Lake" "The Water Gate Bridge of Chosin Lake", the "Blocker" co-directed by Zhang Yimou and his daughter Zhang Mo, the "Miracle Stupid Child" cooperated by Wen Muye and Yi Yanqianxi, Han Han's fourth film "Four Seas", and "This Killer Is Not Calm" with the happy twist label...
Among them, in the early pre-sale period, "Chosin Lake No Pratunam Bridge" was recognized as the most likely to create a high box office. This is not only because as a sequel, the box office champion "Chosin Lake" has laid a good market foundation for it, but also because many of the main theme movies have achieved good results in 2021, in the box office top 10 films, in addition to "Chosin Lake", there are also "My Father and Me", "Anger • Serious Case", "Chinese Doctor".
As it turns out, "Watergate Bridge" did not disappoint, and by 13:00 noon on February 2, the box office had broken 981 million.
Under "Watergate Bridge", the box office potential of the four films "Miracle Stupid Child", "This Killer Is Not Calm", "Four Seas" and "Sniper" is also very large.
"Miracle Stupid Child" is directed by Wen Muye and starred Yi Qianxi. As a cutting-edge director, Wen Muye's first film "I Am Not a Medicine God" earned 3.1 billion at the box office and gained a good reputation. Yi Qianxi is a big hit whose acting skills have been recognized in recent years, and the cumulative box office is about to exceed 10 billion.
The strong combination of the two also made the film get a good discussion from the announcement of its release. At 13:00 on February 2, the box office exceeded 270 million, and the Douban score reached 7.4 points. In the hottest Spring Festival file, "Miracle Stupid Child" may be able to reproduce the results of "I Am Not a Medicine God".
"This Killer Is Not Too Calm" and "Four Seas" are two films with comedic elements, each with its own advantages in the Spring Festival file.
The former is co-starred by "twist" actor Ma Li and Wei Xiang, who has starred in the classic supporting roles of "The Richest Man in Xihong City" and "Flying Life", and there are also a group of familiar comedians in the supporting roles. Before it announced the release of the Spring Festival file, another movie in the Happy Twist department, "Super Family", announced the withdrawal of the file. To a certain extent, "Killer" can fill the market gap after the absence of withdrawn films and win the tickets in the hands of happy twist fans.
However, Happy Twist is only the third producer in this drama, and Happy Twist has weakened its box office appeal after frequently launching films with poor reputation such as "Li Mao Changing Prince", "Warm Hug", "Li Cha's Aunt", etc.
Whether "Killer" can achieve good results depends on whether the film itself can stand up.
"Four Seas" is Han Han's fourth film. From the 628 million yuan box office of the first film "After The End", to the box office of "Riding the Wind and Waves" exceeding 1 billion yuan, and then to the box office of "Flying Life" setting a box office of 1.728 billion yuan, Han Han has not disappointed the audience and capital. In addition, the joining of the two protagonists Shen Teng and Liu Haoran has also made this film gain a lot of attention.
In contrast, Zhang Yimou's "Sniper" filmed by zhang Yimou's daughter Zhang Mo did not receive much attention, which may also be related to the low investment in the early stage of the film.
In addition, although Zhang Yimou itself has a strong box office appeal, it has not exerted enough power in mainstream commercial films in recent years. Although it is also a theme of the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, "Sniper" may be difficult to reproduce the box office miracle of "Chosin Lake".
For this year's Spring Festival, Guotai Junan Research Report believes that the rapid growth of the number of film screens to give good box office support - according to the data of the National Film Administration, the number of mainland film screens by the end of 2021 has reached 82,200, ranking first in the world, and the Box Office of the Spring Festival in 2022 is expected to hit a record high. According to the data of the China Film Distribution and Projection Association and the National Film Administration, the Spring Festival in 2022 is expected to produce a total box office of about 8.5 billion yuan.
According to the statistics of the "Film Information Department", a total of 127 companies (including duplicate companies) have gathered behind the 8 films, truly realizing the scene of "a hundred schools of contention". Overall, the number of enterprises stationed in the Spring Festival stalls this year has reached a historical peak.
In these more than 100 enterprises, there are private companies at the head and waist of the industry, such as Bona, Bad Monkey, Guangguang, Xinli, Tingdong, etc., as well as traditional veterans, such as "Watergate Bridge" with the endorsement of Bayi Film Studio behind it, and Shenzhen Radio Film and Television Group behind "Miracle Stupid Child". Internet capital is also increasing investment, the most typical is ByteDance, its Douyin culture participated in a total of 6 films in the spring of this year.
For the film and television industry seriously affected by the epidemic, the Spring Festival file is undoubtedly an opportunity to "return blood". However, it is also because of the popularity of the Spring Festival film market and the impact of the cold winter in the film and television industry in the past two years, there is a general price increase in the Spring Festival this year.
The average pre-sale ticket price of "Watergate Bridge" in Beijing has reached 82 yuan, and the average ticket price in the country on the first day of the Chinese New Year is also as high as 57.7 yuan, which is more expensive than the Spring Festival stalls in previous years.
Although the audience is willing to pay for high-quality films, if the quality of the Spring Festival film cannot be supported, the "strongest Spring Festival file" may only be left with the label of "the most expensive Spring Festival file".
02 There is no upper limit at the box office
The reason why there are many movies competing for release and hundreds of enterprises are stationed together is due to the rapid development of the Spring Festival file in the past 10 years.
Looking back at the past and present lives of the Spring Festival stalls, it has gone through three stages: budding, development and take-off.
The Spring Festival stalls, also known as "Chinese New Year films", first started in Hong Kong in the 1980s. At that time, the famous directors and actors in the Hong Kong film industry tacitly agreed to jointly produce and shoot comedies, action movies and other popular genre films during the Spring Festival, adding a joyful atmosphere to the Spring Festival.
Films such as "Eight Star Annunciation", "Family Happy Affair", "Tang Bohu Dian Qiu Xiang", "Journey to the West", "Police Story" and other films were launched during the Lunar New Year and achieved good box office results.
Screenshot of the movie "Journey to the West"
Mainland Chinese New Year films started more than a decade later than Hong Kong. In 1995, the Hong Kong film "Red Fan District" entered the mainland, becoming the first mainland Chinese New Year film, which achieved good box office results and was also regarded as the beginning of the Spring Festival file.
In the following years, many people in the film and television industry saw the potential of the Spring Festival stalls and began to build the Spring Festival stalls in the mainland.
In that period, the more typical is the series of films shot by Feng Xiaogang, who became one of the most commercially valuable directors in China with new year films such as "Party A and Party B", "Not Seen and Not Scattered", "Mobile Phone", and "No Thief in the World".
In the same period, there are Zhang Yimou's "Hero", Zhou Xingchi's "Kung Fu", Chen Kaige's "Wuji" and so on. Under the promotion of a number of commercial films, the Spring Festival stalls in the mainland have officially taken shape.
However, before 2013, the box office of the mainland Spring Festival stall was not so prominent. Taking 2008 as an example, the data shows that during the Spring Festival 7 holiday, the box office was only 110 million yuan, accounting for only 2.6% of the total box office of the whole year. At that time, there were very few films that could break through the 100 million at the box office.
Image source: Sohu Entertainment
The turning point came in 2013's "Journey to the West" and the addition of big stars, when Zhou Xingchi brought the well-known IP of the "Journey to the West" series and the addition of big-name stars, and finally won a box office of 1.247 billion yuan in the mainland, with a cumulative box office of 215 million US dollars worldwide, becoming the world's highest-grossing Chinese film.
Before this, the box office of domestic New Year films wanted to exceed 1 billion, which was like "fantasy". After that, the blockbuster Spring Festival movies began an unlimited harvest box office journey.
In 2016, there was a blockbuster "Mermaid" with a total box office of 3.397 billion, and in 2018, the box office of "Detective Chinatown 2" was on a par with this; in 2019, there was a "Wandering Earth" with a total box office of 4.686 billion yuan.
By 2021, there will be a 5.414 billion box office "Hello, Lee Huan Ying", and a 4.523 billion box office "Detective Chinatown 3". The two box office harvesters gathered in a slot, which also shows that the market for the Spring Festival slot is large enough to accommodate multiple movies competing.
According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, in the past nine years, the proportion of the total box office of the Spring Festival file in the total box office of the whole year has increased from 3.57% in 2013 to 16.67% in 2021, which has become the largest file in the mainland film market.
And the story of the Spring Festival file will continue. When "Chosin Lake" earned 5.73 billion yuan at the box office during the non-Spring Festival period, both inside and outside the industry were speculating about who would spend the first film with a box office of more than 6 billion.
At present, no one can judge this issue, but at least, it is most likely that such a movie will be born in the Spring Festival file.
03 Who is exacerbating the "Matthew effect"?
How can you create a "blockbuster movie"? For a long time in the past, this creative formula was widely rumored in the industry: Spring Festival business + top traffic small students + commercial large production IP.
But in the past two or three years, commercial blockbusters such as "Shanghai Fortress" and "Asura" have proved to be ineffective.
Audiences are also demanding more and more about the quality of their films.
Taking the commercial blockbuster "Turandot" as an example, although there are movie stars such as Jiang Wen, Hu Jun and Sophie Marceau, the story itself is difficult to stand, and the final cumulative box office is only 18.9 million. In terms of word of mouth, it has also become a bad film with the same name as "Asura" and "Shanghai Fortress".
In addition, "The First Burning Incense", adapted from Zhang Ailing's novel, although there are also traffic flowers participating, it has not received the ideal box office.
But once a good movie comes along, the energy it brings is enormous. In 2021, the national film box office was fixed at 47.258 billion yuan, and the domestic film box office was 39.927 billion yuan, accounting for 84.49% of the total box office. According to Yien data, the number of newly released movies in 2021 reached 554, 59 films that reached the box office of 100 million, and only 3 films that broke 2 billion, but contributed 35% of the box office.
On the whole, movies with the themes of "country" and "home" have become the mainstream.
In addition to the box office champion "Chosin Lake", "Chinese Doctor" with a box office of 1.329 billion in 2021, "My Father and My Father" with a box office of 1.476 billion, "Fury And Serious Case" with a box office of 1.329 billion, and "On the Cliff" with a box office of 1.19 billion.
In the past, most of these films were produced by state-owned film companies, and in recent years, the participation of private enterprises has gradually increased, which also shows that the main theme of the film is ushering in the golden age of commercialization.
"Hello, Lee Huan Ying" opened the prelude to the 2021 "home" genre movie. In addition to it, "Send You a Little Red Flower" and "My Sister", which discuss the topic of family and family affection, have won 1.2 billion box office and 860 million box office respectively, with remarkable results.
In addition, there are some small-budget movies that have also achieved good results with good plots and themes. The suspense drama film "Fame and Fame" has earned more than 900 million at the box office. "Love Myth", released on New Year's Day, tells the love concept of several women with different identities, and has also achieved good box office and word of mouth.
The stories of these small-budget films "to be big in the small" also give many "waist" filmmakers and directors the hope of "counterattacking".
In fact, the "Matthew effect" of the industry is rising year by year. Rao Shuguang, president of the China Film Critics Association, said in an interview with the media: "There is a clear 'two-eight effect' in the market, and even the 'one-nine effect' appeared in the National Day file in 2021. ”
This imbalance in development has led to a greater concentration of box office on a small number of films. When the market lacks such films, the overall box office will decline significantly, which is not conducive to the stable revenue of theaters.
Not only that, but this will also affect the orderly development of the entire film industry chain. When many resources are devoted to one or a few films, the overall development of the film is biased, and it is difficult to give small-cost films enough opportunities and resources. In the long run, it will also affect the overall quality of Chinese films.
To achieve the stable and sustainable development of the industry, more films at the waist need to be seen. But judging from the current market concentration, the industry has not yet solved this problem.
Returning to the Spring Festival stall, its existence itself is also exacerbating this "Matthew effect".
But fortunately, the audience has its own scale in their hearts, and what can support the box office of the film is no longer the schedule and gimmick, but the story and connotation that can really move the audience.
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