"James dependence" may be the most difficult disease in basketball circles to overcome. The Knights and Heat of that year could not solve this problem, and now the Lakers have thought of many ways to solve it.
In the early morning of January 31, Beijing time, the Lakers suffered a tragic reversal on the road and lost to the Eagles 121-129. The Lakers entered the fourth quarter with a 10-point advantage, but in the final quarter they lost by 18 points. This is the 12th time this season that the Lakers have led by at least 10 points but have been reversed, the most in the league. Without LeBron James in control of the rhythm, the Lakers attacked the dud in the final stages and could only watch the Hawks go away.
This season, the Lakers' winning percentage without James has been dismal. The problem is that in the number of games James played, the Lakers' winning percentage was only barely more than 50%. If James and Nunn, who has not yet played, return and the Lakers return to the full lineup, they may still be just a play-off team, because one more Nunn will not make the Lakers' defense change dramatically.
In the end, the play-off format that James has shelled is likely to be the Lakers' last hope.
The Lakers win rate of only 33%
Over the years, the Cavaliers and Heat have also faced the problem of "James dependence", but because Of that time, James's iron bones and rare injuries are absent, so the two teams will not be particularly troubled.
From 2003 to 2010, James missed only 26 games when he played for the Cavaliers, and the Cavaliers lost 10-16, with a winning percentage of 38.5%. From 2010 to 2014, James missed only 18 games when he played for the Heat, and the Heat had a 50% win rate of 9 wins and 9 losses. From 2014 to 2018, when James played for the Cavaliers for the second time, the problem of "James dependence" was particularly obvious, and in the 27 games that James missed, the Cavaliers only won 4 games, with a winning percentage of 14.8%.
Then, after James joined the Lakers in 2018, injuries increased, and he has missed as many as 72 games due to groin strains, ankle sprains, abdominal strains, and knee injuries, even more than the total number of games he missed in the first 15 years of his career. During this period, the Lakers record was only 28 wins and 44 losses, with a winning rate of 38.9%. In the number of games James played, the Lakers won 127 and lost 76, with a winning percentage of 62.6%.
The Lakers' "James dependence" is mainly reflected in the fact that the Lakers' winning rate plummeted when James did not play, and he was not on the court or when the Lakers attacked the crotch. In order to solve this problem, the Lakers exchanged Russell Westbrook for the offseason last year, and the result? When James is not playing this season, the Lakers are 5-10, with a winning percentage of 33.3%. When James wasn't on the floor, the Lakers had an offensive efficiency of 102.8 points.
In the past two seasons, the Lakers' "James dependence" is also obvious, in the 2019-20 season, when James was not on the court, the Lakers only scored 105.2 points per 100 rounds, a net loss of 1.9 points. Last season, the Lakers tried to solve this problem by bringing in offensive players, and the effect was not good, james was not on the beach Lakers scored only 105.8 points per 100 rounds, a net loss of 1.9 points.
This season, with Westbrook, the so-called ball-holding core, the Lakers' offensive efficiency in James' absence is not as good as in the past two years, and the 100-game goal difference has regressed to -3.3 points. The Lakers now have only 24 wins and 27 losses, which is directly related to James's absence of a large number of games and the Lakers' lack of competitiveness when James is not on the court.
Can all the Lakers compete for the championship?
A series of data above show the importance of James to the Lakers, but can James play to save the Lakers from water and fire? difficult. The Lakers' decision-making mistakes in the offseason are not something James can make up for.
This season, the number of games James has played, the Lakers have only 19 wins and 17 losses, and the winning percentage is barely more than 50%. Of course, there are reasons why Anthony Davis has missed a lot of games and the Lakers' lineup is not aligned. If Davis can play in good health in the remaining schedule, James can return soon without a major knee injury, because Nunn, who has not played since the knee injury season, how can the Lakers play in the full lineup?
The Full Lineup of lakers is certainly stronger than it is now, but it does not allow the Lakers to move from the playoff zone to the championship zone. Because the Lakers' series of operations in the offseason are doomed to the Lakers to face two unsolvable problems when the lineup is complete.
First of all, it is the compatibility problem of Wei Shao, and the Lakers have now formed a vicious circle. To use Westbrook, the Lakers will have to use or use Dwight Howard less, focusing on a small lineup. Playing a small lineup, Davis and James have to play more centers, and the load is heavy. Davis' previous injuries and, more recently, James' injuries, are hard to say that they have nothing to do with their massive play as centers. Playing a small lineup, the Lakers will have to face the problem of insufficient height to lose rebounds and the blood collapse of the outside defense. But fight with the opponent to attack, the Lakers can not fight the opponent at all.
If Nunn returns, the Lakers' offense could be even better. However, the Lakers' lineup is originally more offensive players, defensive players are less, and players with both offensive and defensive players are not in addition to the Zhan Mei combination. If Nunn's return leads to fewer playing hours for Stanley Johnson, Avery Bradley and Austin Reeves, the Lakers' already unreliable defense will decline further. If Nunn's return affects the playing time of Malik Munch and Cameron Anthony, the Lakers' offense will not have much improvement. Unless, the Lakers send Tucker Jr. away, reinforcing the flanks while freeing up playing time for Rain.
In the end, if the lineup is not changed through trades, it will be difficult for the Lakers to welcome back healthy James and Nunn, because after giving up Pope, Kuzma, Caruso and others, the Lakers' basic set of standing among the giants in the past two years has been shaken. Without the league's first defense, and at least half of the time in each game is incompatibility, it is difficult for the Lakers to compete with strong teams.
Play-offs or last hope
In May, James publicly spoke out against the playoffs, saying: Whoever comes up with this thing should be fired. ”
That season, the Lakers fell to the playoffs due to an injury from the Zhan Mei combination, and finally entered the playoffs as the 7th in the West by relying on the playoffs.
James' attack on the playoff format is understandable, because without the playoffs, the Lakers' 42-30 record is also ranked 7th in the West. The playoff format added suspense and allowed the Grizzlies, who were ranked 9th in the West, to advance to the playoffs by beating the 8th-place Warriors in the West. For teams ranked 7th and 8th in the division, the play-off format is indeed a burden, because they have to play at least one more game, and if the playoffs are not performed well, they may miss the playoffs.
When James said those words, he obviously did not expect the Lakers to fall out of the top 8 in the West this season. For teams in the 9th and 10th places in the division, the playoffs give them hope of making the playoffs. Suddenly, the playoffs that were shelled by James may now be the Lakers' last hope of storming the playoffs.
At present, the Lakers' record is 24 wins and 27 losses, and the winning rate is only 47.1%. The Lakers are 4.5 wins away from the Nuggets, who are in the 6th place in the West, and it is extremely difficult to enter the top 6 places in the form of the Lakers to avoid playing the playoffs. The Lakers are 1.5 wins away from the 7th-place Clippers in the West and 1 win away from the 8th-place Timberwolves, 2.5 wins ahead of the 10th-place Trail Blazers in the West and 4.5 wins ahead of the 11th-place Spurs.
From the current situation, the Lakers' most realistic goal is to strive to enter the playoffs as the 7th in the West as last year, seize the most favorable position in the playoffs, and then win a win to lock the playoff tickets.
For the Lakers who formed the Big Three, this goal is already low enough, and ironically, the Lakers are even difficult to achieve such a low goal. Because from the perspective of the schedule, the Lakers will face the devil's schedule in the final stage. In the last 31 games, the Lakers played 19 games with a winning percentage of at least 50% of the strong teams, they also had to play with the Warriors and Clippers 3 times each, and they had to play against the Lone Rangers, Nuggets, Suns, and Jazz 2 times each. The Lakers' winning percentage in these 14 games will directly affect or even determine their ranking, and from this point of view, the Lakers are fierce and less auspicious.
The data website "538 Net" combined with the schedule, performance and other factors, using a data model to predict the lakers' final winning rate this season, the results showed that the Lakers can only rank 9th in the West with 37 wins and 45 losses, which means that the Lakers must fight two wins through the playoffs to enter the playoffs.
Last year, when the Lakers fell to the playoff area, the Lakers crowd shouted "No matter where we rank, we have the ability to make the next move into the playoffs." As a result, the Lakers lost to the Suns in the first round. Of course, this has to do with Davis' injury.
This year, the Lakers fell to the playoff zone again, and Davis said that "as long as we are in the playoffs, we are still a very good team."
Regardless of whether the Lakers can face the Suns in the first round and the Warriors can be on the next gram, the first thing the Lakers should think about is how to enter the playoffs.