A shares closed the U.S. stock market rose sharply, after the holiday rebound in sight? What is the real bounce signal, please bookmark

Looking back at the market this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose sharply from 3522.57 points to 3361.44 points, a range decline of 4.57%, the ChiNext Index adjusted from 3034.68 points to 2908.94 points, a range increase of 4.14%, the US Stock Dow Jones Index closed at 34725.47 points this week, rose 1.34%, the S&P 500 closed at 4431.85 points this week, up 0.77%, and the Nasdaq closed at 13770.57 points this week, up 0.01%. Last week's weekly comment said that there is no need to worry about the trend of us stocks, I myself practice, decisively copy the bottom of the US stocks, it seems that after the holiday back there will be a new historical high, as for A shares? The decline is uniform, obviously there is a problem with the internal system, but next week's A-share market will not open, which should be a big profit for the global stock market!

Although the market will not open next week, but next week to open the market ah, the summary should be done or do it, lazy, today summed up next week do not have to summarize, just look at the US stocks can be. Looking at the overall performance of the market this week, the situation of funds in and out is like this: [Remarks: This is the average increase of the sector, not the increase of the sector index]

Judging from the operation of the market this week, there is no sector of capital inflow, which is embarrassing, indicating that funds only flow out and no inflow. The leading sector with large transaction volume is software services (344 billion), brewing (125.3 billion), medicine (292 billion), the top turnover rate is software services, advertising packaging, Internet, media and entertainment, IT equipment, it is obvious that the plate of capital outflow is concentrated in software services, this is the concept of digital economy coinciding varieties, Ji as a recent hot spot also announced the flameout, indicating that the market is a comprehensive adjustment, without any resistance.

Some people think that the US interest rate hike has led to this market correction, but I don't think it is. If the United States raises interest rates, all the global stock market funds will flow back to the United States, forming a pattern of funds flowing out together, but the real situation is like this: the British FTSE 100 closed at 7466.07 last week, a range decline of -0.37%; the German DAX30 index closed at 15318.95 last week, a range decline of -1.32%; the French CAC40 index closed at 6965.88 last week, a range decline of -1.45% Even Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index closed at 1478.96 last week, a range increase of 0.41%; of course, South Korea's KOSPI closed at 2663.34 last week, a range decline of 6.03%, and the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26717.34 last week, a range decline of 2.92%. In summary, I think the US interest rate hike is only a factor, not the main reason for this decline.

For the main cause of the decline, in fact, many people are clear in their hearts, but everyone sees through it and does not say it thoroughly, I do not dare to say it, or to deal with it, looking for reasons has not had much effect. For the continuous decline in the market, I think it is very similar to the situation of coal in September, but at that time, because of the news stimulation, the coal sector unilaterally rose, and then was suppressed by the market and unilaterally fell, during which there was no rebound, and even after falling back to the starting point, it could not stop the car and continued to break downward. This downward trend suggests referring to the changes in the coal sector from September to December, which may be more effective.

In fact, the market stop falling is really simple, the general rise of two days is over, even if it is only a little bit up every day, as long as the dominoes that kill the fall are broken. Last Monday, last Wednesday, last Friday actually there was a rebound, but because only local plates rebounded, some plates continued to fall, and then Tuesday, Thursday are 400 billion down spectacle, you may not find the reason for the decline, but the general rise can always be found, right? Close to 5,000 stocks, 10:1 up or down such as 4,000 up, 400 down This is not difficult to see, right? As long as this situation does not occur for two consecutive days, I think the market is still the original formula, and it is not worth laying out in advance.

Before looking forward to the post-holiday market, let's review last week's view, which was seen last week:

Do not guess the bottom, resonance stop falling is the bottom, play the routine of dismantling the east and making up for the west to explain that it is only tempting and untrustworthy! When all the sectors have rebounded, when there will be a bottom signal, then follow the rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new low of adjustment this week, in fact, there is no stop falling, the upper moving average bearish arrangement, the lower MACD green column is not significantly divergent, rather than seeing a double bottom, it is better to say that it is looking for the bottom. The ChiNext index has obviously broken for the second time, and the moving average is also a bearish arrangement, and like the Shanghai Composite Index, it must wait for the market to appear obviously long signals to confirm the bottom. In terms of themes, the only signal for bulls is the digital economy, and I think the market may have exceeded expectations after bottoming out. The strengthening of the undervalued sector is analyzed as a mid-line trend and is also recommended to continue to pay attention. As for the oversold rebound, it will come, but it is best not for you to lurk, and follow after the signal appears.

Last week's outlook has indeed clearly pointed out that the stop-loss sign is a general rise, and it is tempting to dismantle the east and make up for the west no matter how many days it occurs. Without the general rise, the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index can only continue to find the bottom. Last week's only optimistic digital economy this week's strong stocks to make up for the fall, indicating that the market has no bullish power, usually this time can only explore new themes, if there is no theme, no operation is the best operation.

In summary, in fact, the bottom of the market is very simple, there is no fancy routine: general rise! For example, don't let new energy kill liquor when it rises, don't let liquor fall when it rises, don't fall in finance when it rises, don't fall in new energy when infrastructure rebounds, and the general rise means that if there are 5,000 stocks, as for 4,600 companies rising, 400 companies falling, it's as simple as that. Now that even the shadow of the rebound has not been seen, is it a little early to talk about the bottom layout? So next week's outlook can be considered like this:

1, do not guess the bottom, resonance stop fall is the bottom, this time also play the dismantling of the east to make up for the routine of the west to show that it is only tempting more than credible! When all sectors have rebounded, when there will be a bottom signal, then follow the rebound (last week's weekly review continues to copy).

2, the Shanghai Composite Index this week hit a new low of adjustment, the upper moving average bearish arrangement, the lower MACD green column continued to enlarge, in fact, has not stopped falling. The index is obviously oversold and has a rebound motivation, but whether the rebound is to stop the fall depends on the above conditions, and the rebound without a general rise may just be tempting, continue to wait for the market to really bottom out signal.

3, the ChiNext index this week hit a new low of adjustment, the upper moving average bearish arrangement, the lower MACD green column divergence failure again amplified, in fact, there is no stop fall. Unlike the Shanghai Composite Index, the ChiNext board does not have an oversold signal, but a negative market, and the old investors are most afraid of the yin fall, because there are no technical indicators to judge, 2008 is like this, 2018 is also like this, it is recommended to start from the Shanghai Index stop loss signal may be easier.

4, the theme, the final theme has also disappeared, the disk surface belongs to the theme vacuum area, oversold rebound may be the main line that has the opportunity to appear after the festival (it must be after the emergence of the general rise signal, and it may still be tempting to rise one or two plates alone). When there is no outlet, it is a rest, and there is no strategy for layout in advance. Now you know why not do the left side, right? Because the error rate on the left side is too high!

Finally, I wish all investors a happy New Year, recruit wealth into the treasure, congratulations!