Photo/ Beijing News Network
A shares staged a "violent" rise on February 25.
The Shanghai Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, and the ChiNext Board all closed up more than 5%. The total transaction volume of the two cities exceeded 1 trillion yuan, the industry sector rose across the line, and the stocks of securities companies rose and fell collectively.
The last time the A-share daily turnover exceeded trillion yuan was on November 27, 2015, and there are now nearly 800 trading days.
The difference is that the last time it was the money that ran away, this time it was the money that swarmed in.
A big yang line, thousands of troops and horses to meet each other. The euphoria of such a bull market was unimaginable before the beginning of this year.
However, on the evening of the 25th, the CSRC also issued a document reminding investors to "invest rationally and prevent investment risks":
We note the recent increase in reports of over-the-counter allocations. In this regard, we will pay close attention to and guide relevant parties to strengthen the supervision of the whole process of transactions in accordance with the law. All securities companies should strictly implement the management of the appropriateness of brokerage business and margin customers, strengthen the monitoring of abnormal transactions, and conscientiously do a good job in the security protection of technical systems. At the same time, it is also hoped that the majority of investors will invest rationally and prevent investment risks.
First, the good news continues
Recently, there has indeed been a series of good news in the frequent transmission -
First, the U.S.-China trade negotiations have made substantial progress and are said to have entered the text consultation phase.
Trump revealed that he would postpone the measures originally scheduled for March 1 to impose tariffs on Chinese products. He also said that all competition between companies should not be based on excuses or security considerations, and the same is true for Huawei.
Secondly, the treatment of private enterprises has also been effectively improved.
The latest news is that since November last year, the central enterprises have paid off 83.9 billion yuan of debts owed to private enterprises in three months, and the progress of debt clearance has exceeded 75%.
The macro news is encouraging, and the capital markets are also spreading good news.
On the 22nd, the 13th collective study meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized that "finance is an important core competitiveness of the country", and the China Securities News put forward the argument that "the stock market will become an important part of the country's core competitiveness" in a prominent position on the front page on February 25, which attracted market attention.
In addition, Huawei launched the first 5G folding screen mobile phone, which also allowed the market to have a new flash point.
Concepts such as 5G and OLED (organic light-emitting diodes), communication equipment, computer equipment and other industry sectors once led the rise, driving market enthusiasm.
On the 25th, this big Yang line made the A-share market rise by 18.74% this year, ranking first in the world's major markets.
This achievement is enough to bring the shareholders to tears. The stock price is bold, and some people have already proposed that there is now a logic for stock speculation - stud (from Depu, which is extended to "put all the chips on").
So, can A-shares say goodbye to the long-wandering bear market and enter the bull market?
Second, stand on a high post and don't stud easily
Bull market theory is now active again, but with historical data as a mirror, you can get a glimpse of more situations.
High volumes in a downturn mean that the stock market is starting to get active, which is a good thing, but it also needs to be looked at from a more perspective.
In the 117 trading days in history, the single-day turnover of the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded one trillion yuan, and the broader market rose for 69 days and fell for 48 days.
The highest single-day trading day was May 28, 2015, with a turnover of 2,357.6 billion yuan on that day. However, on the same day, more than 500 individual stocks in the two A-share markets fell to a halt, and more than 2,000 stocks fell sharply, and the stock disaster broke out, and the stock index fell all the way.
One thing is certain: stock prices are driven by money to rise.
From the perspective of overall liquidity, the current state still adheres to the policy bottom line of not engaging in flood irrigation, and the liquidity gate is not as loose as from the end of 2014 to the summer of 2015.
Financial institutions tend to lend more at the beginning of the year to facilitate the early recovery of interest and a little calmer at the end of the year. Not surprisingly, M2 in January is probably the highest point of the year.
In fact, the funds that were ambushed early now show signs of taking profits. This year's 33 trading days northbound funds have a record of 18 consecutive trading days of buying. However, after the sharp rise on the 25th, the Shanghai Stock Connect sold 2.089 billion yuan, and many people began to withdraw.
Therefore, for ordinary investors, standing on a high post should not be easily studded.
Third, this round of rise has the characteristics of a technical bull market
This time, the stock market suddenly rose across the board, although the sector is different, the industry is different, but the performance is somewhat similar.
At the beginning of February, 400 to 500 listed companies that pre-disclosed their 2018 results made pre-losses, of which hundreds of them had pre-losses of more than 1 billion yuan, and the highest loss was 7.2 billion.
In less than a month, there was also the Spring Festival, and within a few trading days, these companies "reversed", which is actually in line with the characteristics of a technical bull market.
It is always necessary to rebound after falling, but this round of rebound is quite magnificent because of the continuous benefits and the lack of money in the stage.
A shares may rush to 3,000 points with hot momentum, or they may not be able to. But that's not the most important thing. The most important thing is whether we can take advantage of the atmosphere of the technical bull market to continue to promote the project of reform shortcomings.
The internal and external environment, liquidity, and good news are all transmitted to the stock market, but the most effective transmission mechanism is to eliminate the drawbacks. The one who should reduce the intervention should not always think of intervention, and the protection of small and medium-sized investors should not always focus on the financing function.
In this way, A shares are likely to move towards a structural bull market, and investors are likely to be "good hi yo".
□ Xu Lifan (columnist)
Edited by Wang Yanhu Proofreader Guo Liqin