Comprehensive compilation Jia Xiaojing
The annual Central Economic Work Conference, which recently concluded, emphasized the importance of promoting a steady qualitative improvement and quantitative and rational growth in the economy. According to the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, China, China will actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force will be appropriately advanced, and it will maintain a high degree of vigilance against the intensifying "global economic headwinds".
The South China Morning Post said that the meeting pointed out that while fully affirming the achievements, it is necessary to see that China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening; the meeting repeatedly emphasized the word "stability", emphasizing that economic work in 2022 should be stable and steady, which means that China "hopes to show a positive image to the world before the Beijing Winter Olympics in February."
Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, said China's economic growth rate could be set at between 5% and 6% in 2022, "this range means that the government will not take excessive stimulus measures." ”
Britain's Reuters said that the Chinese government has taken the economic growth target of 5% as the bottom line, which means it will continue to work to reduce its dependence on real estate and strike a balance between different needs. Li Xuesong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Reuters: "There is some room for maneuver for more than 5% of the target, which is a relatively cautious forecast, allowing all parties to focus on reform and innovation and promote high-quality development." ”
According to the analysis of the South China Morning Post, the Chinese government should set up "traffic lights" for capital, strengthen the effective supervision of capital according to law, and prevent the barbaric growth of capital. At the same time, the central government insists that local governments not take "one-size-fits-all" action.
"The 'Hidden Gem' is an investment in advanced technology." Eris Pang, an economist at ING Financial Services in the Netherlands, said there was strong growth potential in this area, but one "potential landmine is the U.S.-China trade war."
Zhou Hao, senior economist at Commerzbank's new market, focused on the report's reference to "strengthening regulation." He said the Chinese government will impose strict regulation on the real estate industry, "'Houses are used to live, not to speculate', and it makes sense to say it again." ”
"2021 is about structural and regulatory reform." Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Baobin Asset Management Co., Ltd., pointed out that the latest work report shows that There will be a major policy shift in China, "planning to carry out comprehensive policy reforms in 2022 ... This means that the government will take a step back from energy supply reform and avoid being too hasty. ”
In 2021, China's GDP will grow by 8.1%, higher than the "more than 6%" target expected by most markets. The South China Morning Post said that while GDP growth may have slowed in the first quarter of this year, China's total economy is approaching that of the United States , which the World Bank estimates grew by 6 percent last year , while "China's economic growth last year was better than expected, bringing it one step closer to becoming the world's largest economy."
In 2021, China's exports will grow by 29.9%, driving GDP growth by 1.7 percentage points. US financial media CNBC quoted Data from Wonder Information as saying that although there were intermittent global supply chains during the epidemic, China's trade surplus rose from $523.99 billion in 2020 to $676.43 billion in 2021, the highest since 1950. "By 2022, exports will remain a very important growth driver for China's economy." Zelina Selena, a senior credit analyst at CreditSights, a U.S. bond research firm, has told CNBC.
The South China Morning Post quoted Chinese University as saying that China should be wary of international factors affecting rapid economic changes, including local epidemic prevention measures, global inflation, the Federal Reserve's gradually reduced policies and tensions between china and the United States. Louis Couckins, head of Asia at Oxford Economics, believes that to maintain stable economic growth, China will introduce more "meaningful macro easing" policies, "We expect strong infrastructure spending, strong credit growth, and support for the real estate sector this year." ”
By 2025, China will extend its high-speed rail network by nearly 32 percent to 50,000 kilometers, 12,000 kilometers more than in 2020, according to the South China Morning Post; a consensus is gradually emerging that China will once again rely on infrastructure investment to curb economic slowdown.
According to the Paris-based International Union of Railways, China's high-speed rail network is planned to extend in length over the next three years, surpassing the total length of the high-speed rail network in Spain, Japan, France, Germany and Finland last year (11,954 km).
By 2035, China's total high-speed rail mileage will reach 200,000 kilometers, Reuters said; China's goal is to achieve full coverage of the Beidou system in key areas of domestic transportation, while steadily advancing its application in global maritime and road transportation.
At the end of last year, China's high-speed rail mileage was 38,000 kilometers, 8,000 kilometers more than the target set by China in its 2017 plan. Amid growing headwinds, China has pledged to 'take the lead' in infrastructure this year to support economic growth. The South China Morning Post wrote.
Source: China Youth Daily client