In the field of investment and financial management, there will always be so many so-called experts and scholars, holding up a very big title, to tell you some future stories. For example: "It is expected that the state will carry out a new round of regulation and control policies for the real estate market, and the prospects of the housing market are not optimistic." "In the second half of this year, the bond market will usher in a major reversal, and a large number of safe-haven funds will withdraw from the stock market and turn into the bond market."
Please compare the above text with the following:
"2013 is a crucial year for Aries to get rid of singleness, and if single Aries wear peridot, peach blossom luck will rise greatly." "You chose the Holy Grail, your luck this week is not good, and past problems may be exposed or even erupt this week."
The so-called investment experts predict the future, as unreliable as predicting the horoscope of the tarot, but I believe that the former may be more, because the former may seem to contain professional knowledge, logic, coupled with blind confidence in investment profits, making many people flock to it. There is an episode in the Japanese drama "Continue" that says that there is a cursed tree in a temple in Japan, and if a person engraves his name on the tree, it will not take long for the person to die unexpectedly. This tree is comparable to the most high-end forecasters, with an accuracy rate of 100%, so the temple is full of incense. This is not a science fiction story, and the final trick is not unusual, that is, the abbot of the temple pays attention to the news every day, and as soon as he hears that someone has died unexpectedly, he will rush over and engrave his name on the tree. Why does the tree predict accurately every time? Because this prophecy is "posterior." You only need to be one step ahead of the believers or journalists in the temple, and the tree will always prophesied accurately! Don't you think this is very similar to the predictions of many investment experts? No matter which company or industry has risen recently, someone will always say, "I predicted this a few years ago." "And this trick can seduce many investors every time." A recent public fund friend said that he predicted that Tencent stock would rise 100 times 10 years ago, and then boasted of his very sharp judgment. But 3 years ago, when I had dinner with him, I used to talk about the stocks he held at that time, there was no Internet company, and certainly no Tencent. There are also some common situations in the investment world. You get an email from an investment firm you don't know about for 10 days in a row, and for 10 days in a row, the stock they mentioned in the email, the fall and rise is 100% accurate. On the first day, you feel that the other party is fooling, but the prediction is accurate for 10 consecutive days, and you can't help but believe that the other party is really a stock god. So you take out all your savings and remit them to the designated account. And then there's no then....
In fact, the real situation is like this, the company sent a group email to 100,000 users on the first day, half of whom predicted that the stock would rise, and the other half predicted that it would fall. The stock rose that day. So the next day, the company gave up the 50,000 people who had made the wrong prediction, and then divided them into two parts, half of the prediction would rise and half predict that it would fall, and so on the 10th day, about 100 people would be like you, getting accurate predictions for 10 consecutive days. The next thing you know. Some people call this kind of company a scam company, but many experts play it this way. Economists who predicted that the housing market would fall for many years — of course he didn't say it would fall that year — began to laugh at him, but when the housing market was regulated, everyone admired his ability to predict. In fact, the best way for ordinary investors to resist this kind of expert prediction is a piece of paper and a pen, and the real judge - time. Write down the predictions you think are correct, people, times, places, events, and let them be judged over a really long period of time. Because it is not difficult to predict accurately for 10 consecutive days, it is almost impossible to predict accurately for 50 consecutive days.
Independent thinking ability, rigorous judgment and detailed investment records are the three indispensable magic weapons for a mature investor.
Wen | Shui Mei Monogatari
Excerpt from: "Who Says Salted Fish Has No Dreams", Beijing United Publishing Company
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