This market is really afraid of what comes, yesterday also said that as long as it does not fall today, the 120-minute cycle of MACD indicators will not be flat, the result in the European, American and Asia-Pacific stock markets in the atmosphere of the general rise, the Shanghai Composite Index high into the highest light of the day moment, and then all the way down the shock, is another day of tigers. The current situation is 20 points away from the long-term trend line, and the formation of the top divergence structure of the 120-minute cycle is basically the difference tomorrow morning half a day verification, simple point to say that the strength of the half day of the morning will basically set the tone for the sideways saw here, more than not to say, move the stool, sit and wait for the long-short duel!
From the daily chart, we should be able to see very clearly that the trend line of in addition to the false breakthrough on April 8, basically acted as a very strong pressure level, and the Shanghai Composite Index has been up to 31 trading days since the march 10 sideways, the first wave of space has been smashed, the time has been consumed very fully, and then no matter how the market chooses the direction, for us what is needed is only a certain signal, there is nothing else to consider and analyze.
One more thing to say is that the rebound speed here is still slow, and if you don't accelerate the market later, it is always impossible to rule out the ABC three-wave down structure from the wave type, but considering that the low point here cannot be established C wave, and the market is only one step away from breaking through the long-term trend line, so this time is the time to test the rules and system. According to what said before, even if the wave type C wave probability is large, but the wave type is not an operation signal, the trend line and structure are, of which the trend line is the most important and must strictly abide by the operation standards, so The response of is to break through the trend line to increase the position, do not go to accelerate the market, fall below the trend line and then reduce the position, at most it is a small loss of space, but this can at least ensure that we will not make principled mistakes, after all, the contrarian operation is the main reason for the market to lose money!
As for why it is said that the sky will be a big showdown? Let's look at the figure above, the DIF value of the 120-minute chart MACD indicator is currently 8.731, the corresponding value of the previous K line is 8.802, yesterday we talked about the DIF line or the rising cycle, so it is impossible to judge the structure formation time, but today began to slow down, and the DEA value is 3.844, the rising speed is 1.222, assuming that the speed is unchanged, the MAXIMUM 4 cycle MACD indicator must be dead fork. Before stressed that the Shanghai Composite Index closed a new high, but the MACD indicator can not follow the new high, once the dead fork is established, it represents the formation of the structure, 120 minutes of top divergence structure can correspond to the 12-day adjustment cycle, which is a risk signal that can never be ignored!
Returning to tomorrow's disk, focus on observing whether the market is strong or weak in the morning session, and here are two situations to discuss:
1, if the morning is strong, then the DIF line of the 120-minute MACD indicator is expected to return to the rising cycle, after all, the current gap is not large, and a few points can basically pull the DIF value back, in this case, it is still concerned about whether the trend line (3485 points) can be broken, and if the intraday breakthrough is stable, consider the tail plate to do additional positions. The reason is very simple, the trend breakthrough to prevent the acceleration wave behind, once the acceleration of the 120-minute cycle of technical divergence will be digested, then there will be no reason to sell, so do not add the position to step short risk, add the wrong at most is with April 8 is a small stop loss only, does not affect the overall situation!
2, tomorrow morning if the weak, even if here sideways, the DIF line will continue to go lower, once the speed exceeds today's constant value, then the speed of structure formation will be correspondingly advanced. So today's environment is just the opposite of yesterday, yesterday is the market does not fall if the structure disappears the probability is greater than the probability of structure formation, tomorrow is not rising, even if the horizontal structure probability will be formed. Once the structure is formed corresponding to the 12-day adjustment cycle, then the wave type probability is still a C wave, and the time and space are basically certain, if this is the case, it is also a good thing, the probability of bottoming out is in early May, and other times continue to test the light position, no need to prepare for the big war!
Tomorrow the bulls have reached the point of fighting a battle against the water, just like sailing against the current, if you don't advance, you will retreat! Dago has always emphasized the importance of the trend, and repeatedly stressed to respect the trend, respect the rules, we can actually recall, the opportunity to make good money is basically in the general trend or large band, this kind of shock is easy to make money and easy to lose money, it is not too much to say that making hard money, the most important thing is that once you risk control the fire, in fact, it is easier to lose money, so if this is the case, why are we impatient and so on, wait for the opportunity to appear, and then re-do it after the trend is clear?
The biggest strength of the bull market is not the policy and news, nor the financial side, but the trend! Thank you all for reading! Feel free to leave your comments and suggestions in the comments section. I'm a trend radar, a staunch advocate of trends, and if you like my article ideas, follow me @ Trend Radar!