08.10 Review - no one will come for you to step on the fog, and you have to see the scenery you like

The Shanghai Stock Exchange rose more than 1%, and the two consecutive days of upward attack were a bit more than expected, and Guizhou Moutai broke the sky and rose more than 6%. With the consumption of these two days, the right to rebound significantly, many people have also been asking, the style has begun to switch, can the consumption of liquor be bought? Therefore, for the main line track stock and the traditional white horse competition, the high probability will also become the focus of the next stage. From my personal point of view, I am still optimistic about the main line direction represented by new energy and science and technology. As for liquor, if you must ask me what is the best choice to buy, then I do not hesitate to suggest that the liquor industry is directly finished, to buy the most offensive C core, the probability of the entire large plate is now too low to be ignored.

Regarding the military sector, the fundamentals have been slowly changing. Especially now after the epidemic, internal and external demand is contracting, and it is not easy for most industries to maintain growth, but the characteristics of rigid military expenditure just ensure that the short-board effect of this industry may have just begun. Judging from the half-year forecast of individual stocks in the military industry sector, the continuation of the boom cycle has been established, and even many sellers have seen ten or even twenty years later.

Judging from the recent plate trend, it has been in the process of strengthening visible to the naked eye. At the beginning, the overflow of funds from many high-fearing track stocks gradually flowed into the military industry sector, and with the accumulation of funds and the fermentation of new logic, is there any hope for the future of the military industry from a complementary track to a main track? We can wait and see.

At least, if I am a fund manager in charge of big money, in this situation, I will inevitably consider allocating part of the funds to industries that are not affected by macros and will maintain relatively high growth rates in the future, and compared with the three major tracks, the valuation of the military industry is obviously the lowest, what reason do I have not to choose it? Optimistically, we can even expect that the military industry can become the same level of track as new energy in the future, which will also bring unprecedented long-term funds to the military industry.

Therefore, from the perspective of the overall situation, whether from the fundamental or technical point of view, the military industry trend has become here, and individuals will continue to maintain sufficient patience for it, and the follow-up trend may be tortuous, but the future must be bright. From a short-term point of view, more and more military industry has been blown recently, and today's acceleration is obviously a lot of emotional short-term funds pouring in, it can be seen that the above selling pressure is still very heavy, and the main force likes to smash the chips to this batch of short-term funds that come in to do acceleration. It is not a good thing that this group of people come in too consistently, and they are also the culprits who can't make money and smash the disks later, so if I am the main force, here I may also choose to wash it with my backhand. Therefore, the intraday also mentioned that if the follow-up military industry is pulled up again, the heavy position can be reduced at a high level, and the follow-up probability has a chance to pick up, of course, the position is not heavy, do not care about the possible large amplitude roller coaster, then continue to lie flat and ignore it.

For those who do not have a layout at present, if there is a sharp rebound in the follow-up, you should pay attention to it yourself and seize the opportunity. The wave of military industry began in late May and has been talking for two or three months now. Just like the previous technology, I also began to say from the beginning of April that the heavy warehouse single hanging a Silan micro has already doubled, and the same is true for photovoltaics. And now is the late closing stage of the topping, although the main line is still three major tracks, but you can obviously feel that it is not easy to make money in it, and the time for brainless lying to win has passed. Each time is always ahead of so much, the military industry here can also be defined as in the initial stage of the beginning of the main rising wave, there is a chance that you can grasp, do not every time to the final climax of the time to build the top, and then ask if you can buy, you can react slowly, but always can not always feel the hindsight for a few months.

This piece of the target, in fact, has been said many times, mainly in the main engine factory and upstream materials. The main engine, the core is still AVIC West Flight, Hangfa Power, AVIC Shenfei, etc., is also a place where personal key large positions are located, three real disks have been bought, positions in turn from large to small, but also basically every day to repeat the machine. Of course, the strongest trend here is still the upstream material, including the western materials of the previous personal real disk, the western superconductivity that has just been bought recently, and the Guangqi technology Zhenhua Technology that many of you are still holding in the strategy, which are very good. Just like lithium batteries, we have been doing upstream lithium mines, they are the first to perform, and the certainty of income is also the highest, and here personal feelings are still too little.

Therefore, for new warehouses, you can also focus on the upstream piece first. For example, the connector of AVIC optoelectronics, aerospace electrical appliances; passive components of Zhenhua Technology, Hongyuan Electronics, Hongda Electronics, these two pieces are the most bought by the institution, so AVIC Optoelectronics was also known as Junmao before. Other key points are Fushun special steel, steel research Gaona, Tunan shares this batch and western materials, Bao titanium shares, western superconductivity this batch of titanium alloys, these can be their own more to see the research report to learn more, roughly have an understanding, familiar with the case of the road, the back has the opportunity, the start will be more decisive, otherwise it will always be listening to the wind is rain, listen to others say good rush, pull back a few points on the panic everywhere to ask what to do, so that you can never make any money. As the title says, no one will come for you to step on the fog, and you must learn to see the scenery you like. And the focus of observation, is not to let you look at how much you can play, but to see in the pullback process, which direction or which target of the undertaking is better, that is the direction of your position.

In the direction of semiconductors, the certainty of performance will be higher than that of the military industry. Compared with the climax of the military industry in the past few days, the place where the mood of the reverse opening of the warehouse has cooled is actually a more rational choice. In fact, it is very simple, when the market enters a period of shock or recession that jumps sharply up and down, the strategy of "low suction and other rotations" is obviously more stable. After all, the long logic of semiconductors has always been there, but in the short term, because of the rise more and then follow the subsequent bearish adjustment, then take this opportunity to buy the core target in batches at a low price, patience and other winds, there will often be some surprises. When the big vote stops falling and rebounds, which branches are stronger are also the most important things to pay attention to at that time. Of course, relatively low directions such as the software sector and 5G personally feel that there is no problem in continuing to pay attention.

In short, it's still the same old saying. Most varieties are due to pessimistic big fall and fall, because of the excitement of the big rise and fall, just like semiconductors, the first few weeks or yysd, after the "you count the old few" event fell for a few days, and then known as garbage scumbags can not afford to support Adou. Did the industry prosperity change after a few days of falling? Domestic substitution is no longer a play? Everything has not changed, it has only changed the human heart. Therefore, the current strategy, more divergence and low suction is always not wrong, pay more attention to the expectation of the difference to guide the operation, for reference.