Taiwan scholar Zhao Jianmin: Resolving the Cross-Strait Deadlock This year is still not too late

Zhao Jianmin was vice chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council and is currently the dean of the Academy of Social Sciences of The Chinese Culture University in Taiwan. Image source: Taiwan's Wang Pao

Looking forward to cross-strait relations in 2022, Zhao Jianmin pointed out that the mainland's new policy toward Taiwan has "one change and three transformations"; the change is that the "peaceful reunification" policy after reform and opening up is likely to change; last year the PLA circumvented Taiwan nearly a thousand times, and now the two sides of the strait are "on the brink of quasi-war." The three changes include the short-range unification of goals, the normalization of force deterrence, and the opposition to the internationalization of "Taiwan independence." At the end of the year, the Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party of China will fill in the blanks of "the party's overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era," and how the reunification meeting will be put on the agenda is the primary observation.

The Taipei Forum Foundation held a seminar on the outlook for cross-strait relations in 2022 on the 20th. Zhao said that there were four "asymmetrical collision structures" in cross-strait relations last year: First, the Americans who supported sending troops to taiwan were the first half, which caused great misleading to Taiwan. The second is that the 20th National Congress at the end of the year will fill in the overall strategy of the New Era Party to resolve the Taiwan issue; this is the third historical resolution adopted by the Communist Party last year, summarizing Xi Jinping's cross-strait policy. The 20th Congress will systematically propose a master plan, and it must revolve around unification.

Third, Taiwan's "anti-China electoral structure" has been formed, and most people do not believe that the mainland will resort to force and believe that the United States will come to the rescue. Finally, the formation of an international "anti-China Cold War alliance" will not necessarily be linked to Taiwan's "anti-China" alliance, but the Taiwan side will form the illusion of a so-called "democratic alliance."

Zhao Jianmin mentioned that at a recent dinner with the top level of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, he suggested that if a peace policy is decided, the two sides of the strait will compromise; if a "war" is decided, conscription will resume; but now the Taiwan authorities want a peaceful policy, but they are all acting in confrontation.