The index fell back in the afternoon, and the three major indexes turned green across the board. On the disk, the digital currency sector rebounded in the afternoon, the banking sector shocked and strengthened, the Bank of Lanzhou rose and stopped, and Qilu Bank, Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo, Industrial Bank, Postal Savings Bank, etc. followed suit.
Today, only a few sectors rose, most of them are in a state of decline, and the theme sector is the first to fall. Overall, today's stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 3800 stocks in the two cities fell. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen cities today was 1,129 billion, 63.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
By the close, the Shanghai index was down 0.09%, the Shenzhen component was down 0.06%, and the ChiNext was down 0.32%. Northbound funds today a net inflow of 12.576 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 7.837 billion yuan and the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 4.74 billion yuan.
Central banks have been moving intensively lately
Recently, the central bank can be said to have "broken its heart" for the market, and the good news continues.
On January 17, the MLF and reverse repo cut interest rates by 10 basis points more than expected.
On January 18, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, said at the press conference of the state new office that sufficient efforts should be made to open the monetary policy toolbox wider and avoid credit collapse; precise force, the financial sector should not only welcome customers to the door, but also take the initiative to attack; lean forward. Timely response to the general concerns of the market, can not be delayed, dragged on for a long time, the market concerns are disappointed, not concerned, not concerned about "mourning is greater than death", the next things will be difficult to handle, so we can not delay, we must walk in front, timely response to the general concerns of the market.
On January 19, the central bank issued an announcement to adjust the LPR quotation bank and release time. Among them, the LPR release time is adjusted from 9:30 a.m. on the 20th of each month (postponed on holidays) to 9:15 a.m., and the adjusted quotation time is just before the opening of the stock market. For this adjustment, the central bank said that it is to strengthen the management of expectations and promote a better connection between the release time of LPR and the operation time of financial markets.
At 9:15 this morning, the central bank announced a "double reduction" in LPR. In January, the 1-year LPR was reported at 3.70%, down 10 basis points; varieties with a 5-year or more period were reported at 4.60%, down 5 basis points.
According to the data, the LPR above 5 years has declined after 21 months, and before that, the LPR above 5 years has not been moved since April 2020 and has remained at 4.65%.
So what will the decline in LPR affect?
LPR is a aggregate, inclusive macro variable, and its changes are not specific to specific industries or individuals, but have an impact on all industries.
Specifically, compared with the 1-year LPR adjustment, which mainly affects liquidity loans, the 5-year LPR reduction has a greater coverage for reducing the financing costs of the whole society. This is because LPR over 5 years is pegged to mortgages, which is highly concerned by the real estate market.
Banking, insurance, brokerage protection
Although the central bank has been positive recently, the market has reacted flatly. More than 3800 stocks fell today.
Banks, securities companies, insurance and other sectors today collectively made efforts to protect the market, of which China Merchants Bank rose 3.36%, Ping An Bank rose 5.03%, Ping An of China rose 3.79%, and Hualin Securities rose and stopped.
This also makes the index and individual stocks have a greater differentiation.
It is worth noting that many individual stocks such as banks and brokerages achieved good performance growth last year.
Looking at the performance of banks that have disclosed their performance, the performance is more eye-catching, most of the banks' net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company has reached more than 20%, and the fastest growth rate is the Bank of Jiangsu, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2022 is 19.694 billion yuan, an increase of 30.72% year-on-year.
The second and third in terms of growth rate are Zhangjiagang Bank and Bank of Ningbo, which achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.299 billion yuan in 2021, up 29.77% over the same period of the previous year; Bank of Ningbo achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 19.515 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 29.67% over the same period of the previous year.
In the data up to now, the net profit growth rate of the securities sector is also the lowest 30%, and the "first brother of the securities company" CITIC Securities pre-realized a net profit of 22.979 billion yuan, an increase of 54.2% year-on-year; there is also Zhongyuan Securities, which has a net profit growth rate of up to 400%.
Although the performance of securities companies is generally good, the Wonder Brokers Index has fallen by 4.48% in the past six years, significantly outperforming the CSI index in the same period.
It is worth noting that this year is a year of full registration system landing, what impact will this bring to brokers?
GF Securities estimates that the implementation of the comprehensive registration system will bring significant benefits to the securities sector in three aspects.
First, the investment banking business, the registration system to enhance the IPO process, the efficiency of the entire direct market financing to improve.
Second, securities brokerage business, with reference to the registration system of the ChiNext board, the turnover of the entire ChiNext board has increased from 15% to 20% of the entire market to 30% to 40%, which will have a relatively large improvement effect on the turnover of the entire market in the future.
Third, in the credit business, the original interest ratio of 1.5% of the margin provider may gradually become a spread of 4% to 5%, and the margin party can earn the spread.
Outlook for the future market of A-shares
Although financial stocks such as securities companies have taken action to protect the market, the overall rebound strength is still not overestimated. The market is still in the bottoming stage and is prone to repetition.
Judging from the overall performance of the current market, the trend of blue chips is still stable, outperforming the index while beating growth stocks, which also fully illustrates the transformation of the current market style. Especially with a steady growth tone and liquidity easing expectations, this style may continue.
As for the A-share market, Zhongyuan Securities said that the characteristics of the market stock game are still the same, the hot spots are converted again, and the possibility of the Shanghai index gathering momentum around the annual line is still large, and it can pay attention to the changes in the policy and capital side. It is expected that the Shanghai index short-term around the annual line of the slight fluctuation is more likely, investors short-term cautious engineering construction, power, Internet and home appliances and other industries investment opportunities, the middle line continues to pay attention to the investment opportunities of low-valued blue-chip stocks.