The so-called limited war does not refer to a direct war between the United States and Russia.
In the war between the United States and Russia, there is no such thing as "limited".
The "limited war" here refers to the geopolitical and war game around Ukraine. Poor Ukraine, it is always it that is hurt. Ukrainian politicians, like Lu Xun's Ah Q, are first-rate, third-rate, and practical.
The two old hooligans in the United States and Russia are not rude, and when they deceived others to abandon the core, they were full of soft little sweetness, and after they were lame, they were treated as a thick-skinned cow lady who tossed hard.
01 Toss Dafa
Since the end of 2021, putin and Biden's long and boring "chicken and duck talk" call, the United States and Russia have begun a fierce public opinion war.
The United States and its allies continue to hype up the threat of Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine, such as Bloomberg News' january 17 forecast that Russia "will occupy Ukraine like Germany annexed Austria in 1938."
Russia has repeatedly stressed that NATO and Ukraine have colluded to harm their own interests, making NATO promise not to expand east and not to support Ukraine.
In this case, the public opinion circles began to worry about whether Ukraine would "collapse" under the tearing of the United States and Russia.
Then the United States and Russia have no sympathy for Ukraine and continue to wrestle. Republican leader McCall issued a soul-torturing question to the Biden administration, "Putin believes that the invasion of Ukraine is opportune." I hope he doesn't make this misjudgment. But if he invades Ukraine, will the United States, our three-service commander-in-chief, be ready? ”
Ms. Newland, the deputy secretary of state of the United States, revealed that the United States has developed 18 plans around Russia's threat to Ukraine.
- It is equivalent to cheering ukraine up and making Ukraine perform well.
Russian Foreign Minister Mr. Lavrov sneered, "There are sources that the United States seems to have 17 intelligence agencies. Perhaps, these 17 departments, plus the State Council, have 18 programs. They may be engaged in internal bidding. ”
It's like telling Ukraine that the U.S. and NATO can't be trusted and fool you.
So what is the U.S. plan? The outside world is not yet known. But the New York Times revealed that the United States planned to train rebels for Ukraine in Eastern European countries such as Poland, Romania and Slovakia in the case of "russia invading and occupying Ukraine".
The new York Times's revelation should be one of the more important ones in the so-called "American plan." But to be honest, the message conveyed by this scheme is more insidious:
1, the United States will not directly help Ukraine out, but will pull the Eastern European countries to cheer ukraine up.
2. Prominently, the "CIA" helped Ukraine train rebels. The CIA has a hand in engaging in color revolution organizations, and it is not enough to say that the large-scale training of military forces against Russia is not enough.
3, as if to convey a message to Russia, the United States and NATO will not intervene directly, it seems to tempt Russia to do what it wants to do boldly; and then let Russia fall into the quagmire of Eastern Europe.
Why is the United States so aggressive? Because from the perspective of the United States, such a move has the lowest cost. This is equivalent to pushing Ukraine to the forefront of anti-Russianism, and the United States itself can wait for an opportunity to move. When to intervene, and to what extent, depends on the interests of the United States.
02 Russian action
Russia is not idle.
According to the Russian Satellite News Agency reported on January 15, Russia's Trans-Siberian Railway is unusually busy and is transferring troops from the Far East to the west.
This signal is very clear. People familiar with history understand that during the critical period of World War II, the Soviet Union withstood the crazy attack of the German army by sending reinforcements from the Far East.
Russia will only redeploy troops from the Far East to the west under special circumstances. Because that cost is very high.
On January 16, the New York Times reported that "Russia may not have invaded Ukraine to take over the country as a whole, but to send troops into the separatist regions around Donetsk and Luhansk, or all the way to the Dnieper River."
This report is still very practical, because Russia is also doing public opinion warm-up.
Russian state television has frequently warned that "Ukraine may soon attack Russian-backed Separatists in Uganda." Russia is really quite blunt, directly claiming to support the separatists in East Ukraine.
Russian television commentator Bouzinski, in a telephone interview with The New York Times, said he predicted Ukraine would soon provoke a "limited" war and that Russia would win quickly through "devastating airstrikes."
Butzinski also said the Russian military "will only destroy Ukraine's infrastructure from the air."
This argument in the Russian public opinion circles can be understood as Russia will not try to annex Ukraine, or even annex East Ukraine, but will firmly support the separatist forces in East Ukraine.
The most pitiful thing in this case is Ukraine. Now That Ukraine is powerless against its own fate, it can only sigh helplessly that the results of a series of security talks between Russia and the United States and the West have been disappointing.
The cards of Russia and the United States are becoming clear: the two sides are joining forces to hype up a limited war.
- As the situation ferments, this limited war in the field of public opinion is likely to become a reality.
03 Big Players
In recent years, there have been many hot spots in the global village, such as Syria, Ukraine, Iran, North Korea, Nagorno-Karabakh, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, etc., but it seems that only the United States and Russia are eternal hot spots.
Because there are American and Russian figures behind every hot spot, the two big hooligans are always the big players in the global village.
Why hype "limited war"? This is determined by the rogue nature of the United States and Russia.
The first reason is to divert contradictions.
Since ancient times, war has been the best way to deflect contradictions.
At this stage, the two major hooligans in the United States and Russia have a bunch of internal problems to be solved. It is conventional practice to divert contradictions by hyping up wars in this way.
For the United States and Russia, war in the general sense is difficult to stimulate, and only mutual hype can achieve the effect. In view of the fact that the United States and Russia have no precedent for direct war, They have no choice but to take Ukraine out and tease and ravage it.
The second reason is the scope of control.
Why control the scope instead of hyping up a more violent nuclear war? After all, the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia are enough to destroy human civilization. In fact, this does not make much sense, everyone knows that there will be no nuclear war.
As you should recall, the "Joint Statement on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding an Arms Race" jointly issued by the five presiding officers of the United Nations on January 3: No nuclear war and no nuclear proliferation.
In fact, it is the first to set the tone for the world, everyone does not tear their faces, do not cross the bottom line, and avoid misjudgment in conventional games. Looking back now, it is roughly equivalent to the two major hooligans in the United States and Russia first communicating and fighting in Ukraine, but do not cross the bottom line.
This is actually very easy to understand, the five permanent family is a big business, no matter where you wrench your wrist, you can't shake the foundation of the family business. Therefore, Ukraine can only hype up local wars.
The third reason is to divide the world.
By making a fuss about Ukraine, the United States can tie NATO members to its own chariot. In particular, the small countries of Eastern Europe have a deep fear of Russia.
Those small countries also have the identity of the European Union, and they can take sides with the European Union.
For Russia, by pinning down Ukraine in eastern Ukraine, it can prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, so that it can retain Ukraine as a buffer zone between it and NATO.
In addition to the above three reasons, there is another factor that proves that the United States and Russia are not doing much in Ukraine.
04 Ukrainian politicians
On January 17, former Ukrainian President "Chocolate King" Poroshenko suddenly flew back to Kiev from Warsaw, Poland. The old iron was defeated by Zelenskiy in the 2019 presidential election and subsequently left Ukraine under investigation for "treason".
Friends who follow international relations understand that Poroshenko is a typical politician, no better in governing than zelenskiy, a comedian.
Poroshenko's reason for returning to Ukraine this time is to help Ukraine face the "growing threat of Russian invasion." As soon as I heard this, I knew that Russia would not actually invade Ukraine. Because according to the usual urine nature of politicians, if Russia really wants to invade Ukraine, Poroshenko will certainly not go back at this time.