On January 20, the lithium battery sector of the A-share market fell again, and the Salt Lake shares with a market value of more than 150 billion yuan at the opening of the market once touched a drop stop, closing down 7.58%, and the latest market value was 146.4 billion yuan.
Source: CSI Taurus APP
On the news side, the company released a performance forecast on the evening of the 19th, and it is expected that the net profit in 2021 will be 3.88 billion yuan – 4.28 billion yuan. Among them, the profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to be 165 million yuan - 565 million yuan, compared with the previous three quarters of 793 million yuan, 1.321 billion yuan and 1.601 billion yuan, a sharp decline.
Some securities companies said that although the company's net profit in 2021 turned into a profit year-on-year, it was lower than market expectations, mainly because the company made a provision for receivables related to salt lake energy ecological environment damage compensation and ecological environment restoration and nitrate industry in the fourth quarter of 2021 (a total of about 710 million yuan), while the company's potassium chloride and lithium carbonate sales were lower than market expectations.
Specifically, in 2021, the company's main business potassium chloride production and sales are stable, potassium chloride production of about 5.02 million tons, sales volume of about 4.65 million tons, lithium carbonate output of about 22,700 tons, sales of about 19,200 tons.
It is worth noting that the company's lithium carbonate production in the first three quarters of 2021 was about 16,300 tons, and the sales volume was about 15,000 tons. According to this calculation, the company's lithium carbonate production in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 0.64 million tons, and the sales volume was 0.42 million tons. In the third quarter of 2021, the company's lithium carbonate production was 0.78 million tons, and the sales volume was 0.76 million tons, and the production and sales volume in the fourth quarter declined significantly.
Today, there are market rumors that its performance decline in the fourth quarter of 2021 may be related to the company's sale of lithium carbonate.
In response to the rumors of reluctance to sell, the China Securities News and China Securities Taurus reporter called Salt Lake shares on the 20th. A person from the company's securities department responded: "No. Sales volumes are only a little lower relative to production, but within the expected range. ”
The above-mentioned person further explained: "Sales are now relatively low, which may be caused by transportation, because we only have the Qinghai-Tibet Line. On the other hand, "lithium carbonate is more about buyers picking up." Now because of the epidemic, the amount of self-picked goods is also limited. ”
CITIC Securities said that the company is a leading domestic salt lake resources company. In the medium and long term, the company's demand for potassium and lithium resources is rigid, and it is expected to maintain a high prosperity, and at the same time, it can rely on salt lake resources for corresponding resource mining, which is optimistic about the company's future development.
CITIC Securities predicts that by the end of 2021, the company's new inventory of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate will be about 370,000 tons and 3,500 tons. At present, the factory price of 60% potash fertilizer of potassium chloride in salt lake is 3490 yuan / ton (including freight), compared with the average price of 2741.78 yuan / ton in 2021, an increase of more than 700 yuan / ton; the price of lithium carbonate has also exceeded 300,000 yuan / ton, compared with the average price of about 110,000 yuan / ton in 2021, an increase of more than 100%. If the company sells some of the new inventory in 2021 in the first quarter of 2022, it is expected that the performance in the first quarter will increase significantly.
EDIT: Leaf Pine
