Six questions about the demographic situation in our country were answered at this press conference

Source: The Paper

On January 20, the National Health Commission held the first regular press conference in 2022, focusing on the mainland's population situation and paying attention to the mainland's fertility policy.

It has been half a year since the "Decision of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Optimizing The Birth Policy to Promote the Long-term Balanced Development of the Population" (hereinafter referred to as the "Decision") issued last year. What are the reasons for the continuous decline in the number of births on the mainland in recent years? Will the mainland birth population continue to decline for some time to come? How do you view the effect of the three-child policy? How to balance extended maternity leave with female employment? Is the mainland demographic dividend gone? Will the mainland's fertility policy continue to be adjusted? These six questions were answered at today's national health commission press conference.

Yang Jinrui, Deputy Director General of the Department of Population and Family of the National Health Commission:

The decline in the number of births is the result of a combination of factors.

First, the scale of women of childbearing age, especially women of childbearing age during the period of vigorous fertility, has declined. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, women aged 20-34 during the boom period decreased by an average of 3.4 million per year, and in 2021, compared with 2020, there were 4.73 million fewer. This is an important factor driving the decline in the number of births.

Second, young people's concept of marriage and childbearing has changed significantly. At present, as the new main body of marriage and childbearing, the post-90s and post-00s grow up and work in cities and towns, have a longer period of education, face greater pressure on employment competition, and the phenomenon of delay in marriage and childbearing is very prominent. Delayed marriage increases the likelihood that women will not marry for life, further inhibiting fertility levels. At the same time, the willingness to have children continues to decline, and the average number of children intended for women of childbearing age was 1.76 in 2017, 1.73 in 2019, and 1.64 in 2021.

Third, the high cost of fertility education has aggravated fertility concerns. With the development of economic and social development, the cost of fertility and parenting education under the influence of multiple factors such as housing, education and employment remains high, which increases the fertility concerns of young people. Relevant support policies are not well connected, and public services such as childcare are not sound, making many young people hesitant and discouraged on fertility issues.

In addition, the covid-19 pandemic has also had a certain impact on the marriage and childbirth arrangements of some people.

Question 2: Will the mainland birth population continue to decline in the coming period?

Song Jian, Deputy Director of the Population and Development Research Center of Chinese Min University:

Indeed, the number of births in China has continued to decline in recent years, mainly due to the total number of women of childbearing age, the internal age structure of women of childbearing age and multiple factors of fertility. Judging the future trend is necessary to combine the above factors.

The number of women of childbearing age depends on the size of previous birth cohorts, with the continental birth population exceeding 20 million in 1962-1975 and 1981-1997, and under conditions of slow changes in death levels, the entry of birth cohorts of different sizes into childbearing age will affect the total number of women of childbearing age. In the coming period, the high birth cohort between 1981 and 1997 is still the main body of women of childbearing age in the mainland, but the number of women who subsequently enter the childbearing age period is decreasing, resulting in a continuous decline in the total number of women of childbearing age, and the internal age structure tends to age, especially the scale of women of childbearing age during the 20-34-year-old fertility period will decline significantly before 2030, which will bring greater downward pressure to the birth population.

In recent years, the fertility rate in the mainland has also declined relatively rapidly, especially the decline in the total fertility rate of one child has offset the effect of the increase in the total fertility rate of the second child, which is the result of the low willingness of the masses to have children, the postponement of the age of marriage and childbearing, and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The key to whether the downward trend of the birth population can be smoothed in the future lies in whether the fertility rate can be improved. This requires accelerating the construction of the birth support policy system, alleviating the pressure faced by the masses, promoting marriage and childbearing at the right age, and boosting the level of fertility.

Question 3: The fertility rate will decline in 2021, and some voices will question whether the fertility support policy has not worked, how to look at this problem?

Yang Jinrui:

The implementation of the three-child birth policy and supporting measures is to prevent the further decline of the birth population, promote the realization of a moderate fertility level, and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.

Population reproduction is not the same as material reproduction, the cycle of population reproduction is long, there are many influencing factors, and the factors for fertility decision-making are complex and involve all aspects. At present, the implementation of the three-child birth policy is not long, and supporting active fertility support measures are also being introduced, and it is difficult to show obvious results in the short term.

In the next step, all localities and departments will focus on the work of fertility and parenting education that the masses are most looking forward to, launch a series of supporting measures, make practical moves, and make hard moves to further promote the implementation of the central "Decision" and various policies and measures.

Question 4: Many provinces have extended maternity leave, how to balance the relationship between fertility support policies and women's employment?

Song Jian:

Most of the newly revised regulations in the provinces now regard the extension of maternity leave as an important measure, and in general, maternity leave will be extended by 30-60 days. Our country's original population and family planning regulations also have maternity leave, but since the comprehensive two-child policy, the continuous extension of maternity leave has become an important measure to improve people's willingness to have children and fertility level. As an important measure of support for the duration of childbirth, paid maternity leave is an irreplaceable role within the family that facilitates the arrangement of time between couples and for the healthy recovery of the mother after childbirth and the proper care of the newborn baby.

But why people still have this concern, feel that maternity leave has been extended, but it is a heavy heart, the key is whether it can be paid maternity leave to really land, especially to clarify the cost sharing mechanism of the holiday. Because the holiday is not a thing, paid maternity leave may be the thing, can not guarantee the woman's income during the holiday, can the woman successfully return to the original post after taking maternity leave, her position and her original income are not affected. Therefore, we believe that the childcare sharing mechanism must be clear, otherwise it may affect women's income security and even aggravate women's employment discrimination. At present, all localities have further clarified the cost sharing mechanism of birth-related holidays, and the cost of childbirth should be shared by the state, enterprises and families, and a variety of measures should be used, such as government subsidies, tax reductions and exemptions, and the cost of employers should be appropriately shared, so as to alleviate the worries of families, especially women of childbearing age.

Question 5: Does the decline in the birth population indicate that the mainland's demographic dividend is shrinking or disappearing?

The demographic dividend is indeed a concept that has been particularly hot in recent years, and it is itself a concept of population economics. In fact, from the perspective of demography, we believe that the demographic dividend is closely related to the change in the age structure of the population, so in a sense, we can also call the demographic dividend "structural dividend". The age structure of the population can be divided into three parts, the middle one is the working-age population, the other is the children's population, and the elderly population. Therefore, in the process of population transformation, on the one hand, the decline in fertility has led to a significant decline in the proportion of the young population, and the proportion of the elderly population has not been so high, resulting in a particularly high proportion of the middle working-age population. This situation we call it the demographic dividend opportunity window period, that is to say, it is a window of opportunity, not necessarily able to really become a dividend. Since the reform and opening up, China has fully seized the window of opportunity for the demographic dividend, harvested the demographic dividend, and promoted the rapid development of China's social economy.

How to judge the future trend? Our current birth population is declining, in fact, the proportion of children aged 0-14 will continue to decline, while the proportion of our elderly population is rising rapidly. China is still in the window of opportunity for the demographic dividend, but this window is about to close.

In the future, we must turn the structural dividend into a longer-term quality dividend, we must fully tap the elderly population and the female population in the population, and we must fully realize the elderly dividend and gender dividend in the demographic dividend.

Question 6: Will the mainland's fertility policy continue to be adjusted?

The population issue is the great power of the country, and population development is a major matter related to the development of the Chinese nation. The mainland has always adhered to the comprehensive decision-making on population and development, scientifically grasped the law of population development, based on the basic national conditions of the population, constantly improved the birth policy, and promoted the coordinated and sustainable development of population, economy, society, resources and environment.

At present, our main task is to thoroughly implement the "Decision" of the central government, implement the three-child birth policy and supporting measures, reduce the burden of the masses in fertility and education, better meet the people's willingness to have children, promote the realization of a moderate fertility level, and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.