Reporter Chen Yue
From 2020 to 2021, new energy vehicles have been on the cusp for two consecutive years and have become a hot investment theme in the market. But after the shock at the beginning of this year, can new energy vehicles continue to be strong? Many investors have a question mark in their minds. In the view of Li Rui, general manager of the equity investment department of Oriental Fund, entering 2022, the investment theme of the entire automotive field has undergone clear and profound changes, and new opportunities are already at hand.
"We believe that automotive intelligence or will usher in a golden decade, automotive intelligence is expected to bring a huge incremental market, but also help to bring about huge technological changes, industrial ecological changes and the restructuring and revaluation of industrial chain value." At present, it is an important period of opportunity to lay out smart cars. Li Rui told reporters.
2022 or the year of automotive intelligence
"From the perspective of industrial structure and current development trends, automotive intelligence is on the eve of the outbreak, and 2022 may usher in the big year of automotive intelligence." Li Rui said.
"On the one hand, after the adjustment, the overall valuation of the new energy vehicle sector has been in a low position in the high boom cycle." The supply and demand tension in most links will gradually ease in the first half of 2022 to the second half of the year; on the other hand, new technologies in the field of new energy vehicles will be concentrated, and the direction and changes of new technologies will become the main development variables in 2022. Li Rui explained.
"The current development trend of electrification has formed an international consensus, with the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of countries around the world, after surpassing the critical point will enter the stage of non-linear acceleration, intelligence or will become another driving logic of the automotive industry, will be carried out at a very fast speed and subversive depth, 2022 is the transition year of the upper and lower levels."
Between 2014 and 2015, there was also a wave of smart cars, compared with then, what is different now? Li Rui said that the first wave of opportunities for smart cars in 2014-2015 came from the expectation of intelligent car industrialization, the background is that artificial intelligence technology has made great progress, but looking back, there was obviously some blind optimism, and the result was that the long tail problem became an important constraint on the landing of high-level automatic driving.
"Different from that year, from the perspective of industrial development, after further technical accumulation, lidar, chips, perception and decision-making algorithms and other technologies have been further developed, and autonomous driving in specific scenarios has been able to initially achieve commercialization, and models with automatic driving functions have begun to be listed and sold well." At the policy level, the mainland will put the intelligent networked car industry at a strategic height, and the policy guidelines and the real endogenous needs of the market will jointly promote the development of the commercialization of intelligent vehicles. Li Rui said.
Technological change may bring investment opportunities
Confidence in smart cars stems from long-term research and investment practice on new energy vehicles and tram intelligence. Judging from the third quarter report, the net value growth rate of the Oriental New Energy Automobile Fund managed by Li Rui in the past year and the past three years was 142.6% and 295%, respectively, and the benchmark yields of performance comparison in the same period were 89.10% and 191.64%, respectively. (Data source: Oriental New Energy Automobile Fund 2021 third quarter report)
In addition, as of December 31, 2021, the net value growth rate of Oriental New Energy Automobile Fund in the past year and the past two years ranked 19/1037 and 3/641 among similar strong stock hybrid funds, respectively, ranking in the top 2%, and was rated by Haitong Securities in the three-year five-star rating (ranking and rating are derived from Haitong Securities - Fund Performance Ranking (2022-01-02), as of 20211231). After that, the Orient Automotive Industry Trend Hybrid Fund, which is to be managed by Li Rui, also began to be issued on January 14, 2022. The fund will be committed to nudging opportunities for change in the automotive industry, focusing on investment in the automotive industry and high-end manufacturing sectors.
"If Dongfang New Energy Vehicle is our product with forward-looking layout on the eve of the industrial outbreak, then the trend of Dongfang Automobile Industry will strive to continue to seize opportunities for investors in the huge industrial wave of electrification and intelligence, and strive to bring better performance returns to investors." Li Rui said.
How to grasp the investment opportunities based on the industry? Li Rui said that with intelligence becoming the main driving logic of the automotive industry, automatic driving has been clearly defined as the direction of development in the next few years. "Specific to the three major links of perception, decision-making and execution in the autonomous driving industry chain, we believe that the market is currently paying more attention to the decision-making segments of the company."
"First of all, AI chips are the hardware link with the highest value of bicycles. At present, the chip company that occupies the leading position in the market for L3 level or above automatic driving is NVIDIA, and the chip dominating L1/L2 level automatic driving is Mobileye. Huawei and others are expected to be included in the selection target. Secondly, at the level of algorithm + data, as the software link with the highest value in the automotive industry in the future, some domestic manufacturers have a certain scale. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the fields of lidar and chassis execution units in sensors, and domestic companies have certain opportunities. ”
Remarks: The effective date of the Contract of the Oriental New Energy Automobile Theme Hybrid Fund: June 21, 2018, which was transformed from the original Oriental Growth Small and Mid Cap Hybrid Fund, Mr. Li Rui served as the fund manager of the Fund on the same day to date, and the net value growth rates of 2018-2020, the past year and the past three years were: -22.21%, 27.42%, 116.30%, 142.60%, 295.00%, and the performance comparison benchmark yield for the same period was -20.75% and 35.80% respectively. 77.60%, 89.10%, 191.64%; The scale of Oriental New Energy Vehicles was 20.137 billion yuan; (Data source: Fund periodic report, deadline: 20210930) The ranking and rating are from Haitong Securities - Fund Performance Ranking (2022-01-02), as of 20211231; similar is: active open hybrid - strong stock hybrid, evaluation date: 20220102.
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