Source: Huaxia Graticule
Lai Ching-te, deputy leader of the Taiwan authorities, photo source, Taiwan's "Zhongshi Electronic News"
Author Wang Kunyi (Chairman and Professor, Taiwan International Society for Strategic Studies)
In his opening special speech at the "2022 Macro Situation Annual Forum" hosted by Chinese Min University, Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said in response to the Taiwan issue that it is sooner or later that Taiwan's so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" will be cleared, which is the trend of the times and the aspiration of the people, and represents international justice and historical inevitability. At this time, Lai Ching-te, deputy leader of the Taiwan authorities, is about to leave for Honduras, a "country with diplomatic relations," on January 25 to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new president, Xiomara Castro.
Honduras is one of the 15 existing so-called "diplomatic relations" in Taiwan. Castro, a candidate for the Left wing of Honduras, said before winning the presidential election last November that if she won, she would sever foreign relations with Taiwan and establish diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland. But Mr. Salvador Nasralla, An ally of Castro's and vice president-designate, later said the new administration would prioritize relations with the United States and did not intend to establish diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland.
After lifting the crisis of "severing diplomatic relations" with Honduras, the Taiwan region, under a free trade agreement with Honduras, began to reduce tariffs on 25 goods imported from Honduras to zero on January 14. It is understood that after the signing of a free trade agreement between Taiwan and Honduras in 2007, the trade volume of Taiwan flood increased from 65.95 million US dollars at that time to 148 million US dollars in 2021. Honduras is also the largest exporter of frozen shrimp to Taiwan.
Lai Qingde's visit was saddled with three tasks
This time, Lai Qingde, who led a delegation to Honduras, was his first foreign visit during his tenure. The delegation consisted of 26 people, including Xiao Meiqin, the "representative of the Taiwan authorities in the United States," Li Junjun, deputy secretary general of the Tsai Ing-wen Office, and Yu Dajian, vice minister of Taiwan's foreign affairs department. The delegation will depart on 25 January and arrive in Honduras on 27 January to attend the inauguration of the new president. He left on the 28th and is expected to return to Taiwan on the 31st, for a total of 6 days and 5 nights. The trip to Honduras includes a welcome reception, inauguration ceremony and state dinner, and Lai Will meet with Castro to convey Tsai's congratulations.
Tsai Ing-wen also specially entrusted Three tasks to Lai Qingde, first of all, in terms of deepening the so-called "friendship," Taiwan and Honduras have been in foreign affairs for more than 80 years, which will last for a long time. The second is to deepen cooperation, the two places have cooperated in many fields such as agriculture and fisheries for many years, and they should continue to deepen their relations with each other. The third is to deepen the so-called "democracy" and international participation of the Taiwan region through this visit, to "represent Taiwan to the world", the two places not only "support each other", and cooperate with countries or regions with similar ideas to contribute to international issues, Taiwan can be a cooperative partner.
Obviously, these three tasks are not easy for Lai Qingde, and in the more than 6 years of the DPP's Tsai Ing-wen term, Taiwan has lost many "diplomatic relations." Last month, Nicaragua "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan region and resumed diplomatic relations with the Chinese mainland. Therefore, if after Lai Qingde's visit, there is a change in the relationship between Taiwan and Hong Kong, Lai Qingde will not be able to escape responsibility. After all, the mainland has warned that it is sooner or later for Taiwan to "clear diplomatic relations," and the new President of Honduras, Castro, was already relatively inclined, and the struggle between China and the United States and the Taiwan Strait issue in Honduras has long emerged, and whether or not Taiwan Can consolidate "friendship" is of course Lai Qingde's responsibility.
Of course, if Lai Qingde's trip is successful, he will return to his Apartment in Tainan for 14 days of isolation after returning to Taiwan, plus 7 days of self-management, and the isolation specifications are quite high. Lai Qingde's return to Taiwan is January 30, it is already a small Chinese New Year's Eve, followed by the Lunar New Year, and when Lai leaves the customs, the Lantern Festival has passed. Taiwan's politicians usually use the Lunar New Year to visit the temple and other activities, hoping to narrow the distance between the people, but Lai needs to be isolated after returning to Taiwan, which means that there will be no public itinerary for the entire Spring Festival, which is undoubtedly equivalent to a "foot ban" for Lai Qingde's future competition for the leadership of the Taiwan region.
In Taiwan's political arena, everyone knows that Tsai Ing-wen is hoping that Taoyuan Mayor Zheng Wencan can take over her class, and Lai Qingde did not consult with Tsai Ing-wen in 2019, and simply announced that she would participate in the DEMOCRATIC Progressive Party primary, which has the momentum of replacing Tsai Ing-wen. Although lai qingde immediately bowed down to him after the primary polls in the DPP were made, and finally took over Tsai Ing-wen's deputy unwillingly and reluctantly, with Tsai Ing-wen's character of being blind and retributioning, Lai Qingde dared to challenge Tsai's big position and absolutely could not gain Tsai's trust.
Is Tsai Ing-wen afraid of going to jail after leaving office?
The reason why Tsai Ing-wen needs a trustworthy person to take over is that she is afraid that she will be sent to prison after leaving office, and if nothing else, the doubt that she has been identified as a "fake doctor" is true, then all the forged documents she has been deceived since the 1980s are enough to keep her in prison for several years. So, without someone who could trust Tsai, she wouldn't have been able to get him to take over. Looking around, the only person in the DPP who can reassure her is probably Zheng Wencan.
This is also the principle of "cold in the heights", the greater the power, the stronger the prestige, the higher the position, the more there is no trustworthy person, which is also the situation caused by Tsai Ing-wen herself. In the past 6 years, she has allowed the DPP to hunt down and kill the KMT, refused to pardon Chen Shui-bian, and slashed and killed those who criticized her in the same camp, and even Annette Lu was placed in the cold palace, so that she could truly taste the late scene of the "deep palace resentment", these are all Tsai Ing-wen's own creations, and in the future she will definitely taste the bitter fruits of these anti-devouring.
Therefore, on the surface, Lai Qingde is fortunate to represent Tsai Ing-wen in the inauguration ceremony of the President of Honduras, but he carries Tsai Ing-wen's mission and also tries to get Tsai Ing-wen's "ban". As a "Golden Grandson of Taiwan Independence" who claims to be a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker," Lai Qingde will also have a hurdle that he cannot overcome.
In particular, the work of consolidating "diplomatic relations" is also equivalent to the first hurdle set by Tsai Ing-wen for him, and it is also the biggest burden of Lai Qingde's trip this time, if Lai Qingde cannot pass, it will become the biggest weakness for him to compete for a big position in the future.