Zhongtai Securities: Give OPCOM a Buy rating

2022-01-20Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd. Xie Muqing, Zhu Jiaqi, Sun Yuyao conducted a study on OPCOM and released a research report "Repeated epidemic and high base affect Q4 performance, 22 years is expected to resume normal growth", this report gives a buy rating to OPCOM, the current stock price is 45.99 yuan.

OPCOM Vision (300595)

Event: The company released the 2021 annual performance forecast, and it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 520-607 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 20%-40% year-on-year; and achieve a non-net profit of 457-536 million yuan, an increase of 15%-35% year-on-year.

Repeated epidemics and high base numbers have affected the performance of Q4, and it is expected to resume normal growth in 22 years. According to the performance forecast, it is expected that the median net profit attributable to the mother in 2021 will be 563 million, an increase of 30% year-on-year; the median value of the non-net profit will be 496 million yuan, an increase of 25% year-on-year, of which the non-recurring profit and loss is mainly financial income, government subsidies and equity gains from disposal of subsidiaries, etc., which is about 67 million yuan. In the fourth quarter alone, the median net profit attributable to the mother in Q4 of 2021 was 120 million, down 22.76% year-on-year; the median net profit after deduction was 111 million, down 21.72% year-on-year. The impact of the epidemic in the first half of 2020 is more serious, and some optometry demand is deferred to the second half of the year, resulting in a high base of the company's 2020Q4 performance, if the 2019 Q4 is compared, the compound growth rate of the median net profit attributable to the mother in 2021Q4 is 24.59%, still maintaining rapid growth. In addition, because the company's restrictive equity incentive plan is concentrated in the fourth quarter to lift the ban, the deductible income tax expense for the current period is about 42 million yuan lower than the same period in 2020, and the apportionment expense of the equity incentive plan increased by about 6 million yuan compared with the same period in 2020, if the impact is excluded, the net profit attributable to the mother and the net profit deducted from the non-net profit in 2021 will increase by 45% and 40% (median value) respectively, and the net profit attributable to the mother and the net profit deducted from the non-net profit in the fourth quarter will increase by 18.95% and 20.32% respectively year-on-year.

Looking forward to 2022, the dual advantages of product + channel drive the company's orthokeratology mirror to rapidly increase, and the integrated optometry service provider continues to evolve. The company's products are industry-leading in comprehensive performance, and are the only products that can be applied to patients with 500-600 degrees of myopia, and the company can meet the different needs of the population due to individual differences through personalized customization services, and provide safer and more effective products. In terms of channels, the company continues to expand its sales scope through investment and self-construction, and gradually lays out terminal medical services to further strengthen the ability to control terminals. In the first half of 2021, the company added more than 40 new terminal service outlets, including optometry centers, outpatient clinics, clinics, etc., and has built about 300 optometry service terminals in total. There are nearly 100 new cooperative terminals, and the total number of terminals that have established cooperative relations has exceeded 1200. Previously, the company released a fixed increase plan, planning to add 1348 new optometry service terminals in key provinces such as Anhui and Jiangsu, and the comprehensive service capability of optometry is expected to be further improved. We believe that as the company's terminal service network becomes more complete, it is expected to form better synergies with upstream optometry devices.

Profit Forecast and Investment Advice: We expect the company's operating income to be 12.06, 15.92 and 2.077 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, an increase of 38.51%, 32.05% and 30.41% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother is 6.04, 7.91 and 1.032 billion yuan, an increase of 39.28%, 31.05% and 30.42% year-on-year. Considering that the company is in a high industry boom, strong consumption attributes, low penetration of the company's products in china, and a good competitive pattern, it is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth in the future and maintain a "buy" rating.

Risk Warning: Market competition exacerbates the risk, raw material suppliers are relatively concentrated in risk, and product market promotion does not meet expectations.

A total of 13 institutions have given ratings in the last 90 days, with 7 buy ratings and 6 overweight ratings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days has been 78.07; the Securities Star Valuation Analysis Tool shows that OPCOM (300595) good company rating is 4 stars, good price rating is 2 stars, and valuation comprehensive rating is 3 stars. (Rating Range: 1 ~ 5 stars, maximum 5 stars)