Water Skin: "Talking about stocks and talking about gold" is the opposite

Water skin/text

Poles apart.

The recent signals sent by China and the United States on monetary policy are completely different, which must be highly concerned. In the US stock market that ended in the early hours of this morning, the three major indexes have fallen sharply, the Nasdaq is down 2.6%, the Dow Jones is down 1.51%, and the S&P 500 is down 1.84%, basically establishing the pattern of adjustment.

Today, the three major US stock index futures indices continue to adjust in the trading hours of Asian stock markets, so the decline in the US stock market is likely to continue.

Why did the U.S. stock market fall? Largely due to the news that the Fed is going to raise interest rates in 2022, the 10-year yield on U.S. Treasuries spiked during yesterday's Asian stock market session, which basically makes logical sense.

The maximum number of times the Fed will raise interest rates in the new year, some Wall Street bigwigs speculate that they will increase to about seven times. This means that the loose monetary policy of the United States will be withdrawn, and liquidity will also tighten. So it's also very normal for the U.S. stock market to adjust at its current position.

In stark contrast is the signal from China's central bank. After yesterday's close, the central bank held a press conference, and the signal of easing released by the head of the central bank was very strong. In response to the reality that China's GDP grew by only 4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, the central bank responded to the market's call for greater efforts to open up the monetary policy toolbox. Not only to open up more, but also to open up in advance, but also to be close to the opening of the market, worried that a slow response will make the market have the idea of mourning more than death.

This strong statement is unprecedented in the past, indicating that the central bank is not optimistic about the future economic situation and hopes to hedge with greater liquidity. Of course, in the end, I hope that before there is an unmanageable situation, the market confidence will be restored and help out of the downward track of stalling.

The central bank's statement, Shui Pi feels that it is positive and urgent, indicating that the upper echelons attach great importance to it.

Of course, the reaction of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will not be very fast one-to-one correspondence. From the perspective of time period, there is still a lag. Despite the central bank's statement, if it is really implemented to reduce the RRR and cut interest rates, I am afraid that there is still a process. Therefore, the first reaction of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was still dragged down by the plunge in the US stock market, and there was also a situation of killing.

In particular, the ChiNext board is mainly affected by the continuous adjustment of the large-scale indicator stock Ningde era, and the adjustment of the ChiNext board today is relatively large, and the corresponding adjustment of the Shenzhen Index is relatively large.

However, northbound funds have not been affected too much, whether it is the Shenzhen Stock Connect or the Shanghai Stock Connect today is showing very, very obvious signs of inflow. The counter-trend inflow of northbound funds is a direct response to the latest statement of the central bank. Northbound funds are really smart funds, and the most critical thing is the funds with the most thorough understanding of policies.

This year, Shuipi has repeatedly reminded everyone that a river of spring water flows to the "east". Today, there is still a river of spring water flowing to the "east" on the disk, and the northbound funds are continuing to flow into the Shanghai market. The words have been said many times, and everyone can also see that today's plate is naturally a financial stock, the index is continuously adjusted, and the financial stock is constantly strengthening.

As of the close, today's inflow of 2.93 billion in Shanghai Stock Connect and 891 million in Shenzhen Stock Connect. This firm inflow of northbound funds also supports the disk to a certain extent. The last rising stocks are slightly more than the falling stocks, it should be said that in the current context, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market trends are good.

Today' relatively large capital outflow is still concentrated in lithium batteries, photovoltaics, semiconductors and other early track stocks, concept stocks, as well as liquor, medicine and other sectors. Today, in addition to Guizhou Moutai and the interpretation of the individual stock market, other hot stocks in the early stage of the decline are relatively large. In the liquor sector, that is, in the afternoon of Guizhou Moutai, it struggled to rise, and to a certain extent, it also pulled the rebound of the Shanghai Composite Index.

Today's disk is worth paying attention to several key stocks, one is hengshuai shares today's 20% drop stop, mainly because of the scandal of public funds taking over private funds. Another iconic stock, Changchun Hi-Tech, fell to a halt today as its main products were incorporated into the collection. WuXi AppTec also fell more heavily today, with the highest intraday decline of more than 6%, and a 4.92% decline at the close. This decline is also based on the 70% increase in WuXi AppTec's performance forecast profit. Such a good performance growth will also have such a large decline, which can only show that the early "medicine and drinking", including the valuation of track stocks, is still high, and now investors are not willing to pay.

Overall, The monetary policies of China and the United States have begun to have a reverse trend.

One sentence comment: the opposite is true.